tenth session of southeastern europe climate outlook forum

Tenth Session ofSOUTHEASTERN EUROPE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM

Monitoring results and evaluation of the SEECOF-9 outlook for JJA 2013

Goran Pejanović, Dragan Mihić,Ana Savović, Dragana Marković, Daliborka Nešić

Jasminka Smailagić SEEVCCC/NHMS of Serbia

Analyses of the temperature and precipitation for the summer season 2013

Based on:

•Operational products of the European Climate System Monitoring - ECSM

•Seasonal bulletin on climate in the WMO region VI – RA VI RCC on Climate Monitoring

•Climate monitoring products generated using data from GPCC, NOAA and NCEP/NCAR

• Climate monitoring products of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Center - SEEVCCC

• National climate monitoring reports of the SECOF-9 participating countries

Available Climate Monitoring Products (1)

Data available at the beginning of the month

August 2013

•NCEP/NCAR – temperature, geopotential height (hgt) and wind Re-analyses

• Anomalies with respect to 1961-1990 climatology

Available Climate Monitoring Products (2)

Data available at the beginning of the month

August 2013

• NOAA – SST and outgoing long-range radiation (olr) Re-analyses

•Anomalies with respect to 1961-1990 climatology

Available Climate Monitoring Products (4)NCEP/NCAR – temperature, geopotential height (hgt) and wind Re-analysis

Percentiles and deciles with respect to 1961-1990 climatology

Also available for 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 climatology

August 2013

Available Climate Monitoring Products (3)

NOAA – SST and outgoing long-range radiation (olr) Re-analysis

Percentiles and deciles with respect to 1961-1990 climatology

Also available for 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 climatology

August 2013

Available Climate Monitoring Products (3)

Global Precipitation Climatology Centre - GPCC

Monthly data late more than a month

June 2013

Resolution 1x1 degrees

Climate monitoring Monthly data available through ECA&D data base by the middle of the month

Mon

thlyS

easonal

September 2013

Mean temperatures in the SEECOF areaJJA 2013

• In the lowlands: ranged between 20°C and 25°C

• Along the coasts of Adriatic and Aegean sea: above 25°C

•Along the coasts of east Mediterranean and in Israel: above 27.5°C

•At higher elevations: below 20°C

Temperature anomalies in the SEECOF area

JJA 2013 • Anomalies were above +1°C over most part of SEECOF area, while in most part of western Balkans above +2°C

• Exception was central and eastern Turkey and South Caucasus, where average temperature is registered

T2m terciles in the SEECOF area

http://www.seevccc.rs/IDX/SEECOF-MONIT//

Summer days in the SEECOF area JJA 2013

Source: ECA&D

• The most summer days were observed in the most part of SEECOF region, except Albania and South Caucasus

Summer days anomaly in the SEECOF area JJA 2013

Source: ECA&D

• Summer days were above normal in most part of the Balkans, as well as the coasts along Black Sea

Tropical nights in the SEECOF area JJA 2013

Source: ECA&D

• The most tropical nights were observed along the coast of south Aegean sea and eastern Mediterranean and central Adriatic

Tropical nights anomaly in the SEECOF area JJA 2013

Source: ECA&D

• In most part of the Balkans and the central part of the Adriatic coast, as well as the coasts along Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea tropical nights were above normal

Summer monthly analysis of temperatures in the SEECOF area - June

• Mostly above normal

• Exception was the central Balkans, coastal part of Greece and north Adriatic, western and eastern Turkey and some parts of South Caucasus

Summer monthly analysis of temperatures in the SEECOF area - July

•Above normal in most of the Balkans

• In the rest of the SEECOF region average temperature was registered

Summer monthly analysis of temperatures in the SEECOF area - August

• Above normal in most of the SEECOF region

• In central and eastern Turkey and South Caucasus average temperature was registered

National services in SEECOF region who sent seasonal reports

• Armenia• Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina• Republic of Srpska• Bulgaria• Croatia• Cyprus• Georgia• Greece• Israel• FYR of Macedonia• Republic of Moldova• Montenegro• Serbia• Turkey

Absolute maximum temperatures in the SEECOF area

Region DateObserved record daily

maximum air temperature in 2013

Previous absolute

maximum

Bihac (Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina)

08.08.2013 42.0ºC 40.0ºC

Drvar (Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina)

08.08.2013 39.3ºC 38.4ºC

Livno(Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina)

08.08.2013 38.2ºC 37.6ºC

Radnevo(Bulgaria) 30.07.2013 40.5ºC -

Heat waves in the SEECOF area

• Most number of concesutive days with temperature above 90th percentile were registered in northeastern Serbia and southern Romania

Source: ECA&D

Heat waves in Serbia

Since the beginning of June, entire Serbia observed two heat waves, at certain places in northern and eastern parts of the country even three heat waves occurred. The first heat wave was recorded in the second half of the month, lasting from June 16 – 22 in most places. The second heat wave was registered at 7 primary meteorological stations with the duration from July 24 till 29. The third heat wave was observed in all of Serbia at the beginning of August, lasting from August 3-9.

Precipitation totals over the SEECOF area JJA 2013

• Ranged from less than 25 mm in part of southern Turkey, southern Greece, Cyprus and Israel, up to more than 200 mm in Moldova, most part of Romania and Montenegro, northern Bulgaria and Georgia

• On local level even much higher

Precipitation anomalies in the SEECOF area

• Considerably drier than normal (<75% of the long-term average), particularly in the western Balkans, in central and southern Turkey, southernmost Greece, Cyprus, as well as in the eastern part of Caucasus

• Mostly wet along the coasts of Aegean and Black sea, eastern Romania, Moldova, on the western and southwestern Turkey, central part of Bulgaria and in northern and western Caucasus

Precipitation terciles in the SEECOF area

http://www.seevccc.rs/IDX/SEECOF-MONIT//

Summer precipitation extremes in the SEECOF area – JJA 2013

• In Silistra (Bulgaria) on July 1st were measured 24-hour precipitation amounts 164 mm.

• In Moldova the highest intensity of rainfall was recorded on June 30 - July 1, when the PH Chisinau and MS Bălțata for 24 hours fell 140-175 mm (200-250% of monthly norm) at MS Ștefan-Vodă for 12 hours fell 126 mm (200% of monthly norm).

Summer monthly analysis of precipitation over the SEECOF area - June

• Mostly above normal

• Exceptions: western Balkan Peninsula, southern Greece, Cyprus, most part of Turkey, southeastern Caucasus and Israel

• Several parts of Turkey affected by floods

Summer monthly analysis of precipitation over the SEECOF area - July

• Mostly below normal

• Exceptions: along the coast of Black sea except southern cost, most part of Albania, FYR Macedonia, central Bulgaria, most part of Greece and southwestern part of Turkey

• Several parts of Turkey affected by floods

Summer monthly analysis of precipitation over the SEECOF area - August

• Mostly below normal

• Exceptions: The most part of Romania, Croatia, Montenegro, northwestern part of Albania, some parts of Turkey and Caucasus

• Several parts of Turkey and eastern part of Montenegro affected by floods

Final version of assessment of SEECOF 9 summer outlook temperature

• Zone 1: higher probability for above-average conditions• Zone 2: less probability for exceeding the average summer season

temperature• The outlook, altogether, was correct

Final version of assessment of SEECOF 9 summer outlook precipitation

• Zone 1: below average • Zone 2 and zone 3: probabilities for below, near or above average

conditions are approximately equal

Summary of Summer 2013

• Observed seasonal temperature was aboveabove normalnormal in most part of region

• A lot of heat waves, tropical days and tropical nights were recorded

• Observed seasonal precipitation was belowbelow normalnormal in most part of region

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

www. hidmet.gov.rs

www. sevccc.rs

jasminka.smailagic@hidmet.gov.rs