taxonomy of unconventional oils: chemical makeup and climate considerations deborah gordon senior...

Taxonomy of Unconventional Oils:Chemical Makeup and Climate Considerations

Deborah GordonSenior Associate

Carnegie Energy & Climate ProgramFebruary 8, 2012

What Are Unconventional Oils?

•The term “unconventional oil” is synonymous with oil that cannot be produced, transported, or refined using traditional techniques

•The transition to unconventional oils might be viewed as a technologically and economically driven re-definition of the resource base for liquid hydrocarbon fuels

•The chemical make up of these petroleum resources—and their climate impacts—can be vastly different from one another and from conventional oil

Conventional Crude Oil

Hydrogen-rich hydrocarbon compounds with fewer carbon atoms and lower molecular weights

Crude continuum from high quality “light, sweet” crudes (Libya and Nigeria) to “heavy, sour” crudes (Venezuela)

Lighter, sweeter crudes have chemical make ups that yield today’s marketable petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel)

C1 to C60 Molecular weight ~ 200

Oil Sands and

Heavy Oil

Contain large, carbon-laden hydrocarbon compounds Extra heavy oils (also called bitumen), are extremely

viscous – sometimes nearly solid Typically contain high concentrations of sulfur and

metals such as nickel and vanadium Require pre-processing into synthetic crude oil Removal by mining or in-situ with different impacts

Oil Shale

The petroleum component of the oil shale (kerogen) is less mature, and has not yet been fully transformed into oil or natural gas

Kerogen in the oil shale cannot be pumped directly from the ground or refined with traditional techniquesOil shale must be heated to high temperatures to transform the kerogen into an upgraded hydrocarbon product, similar to diesel

Tight Oils

Referred to as Shale OilProduced from low-permeability siltstones, sandstones, and carbonatesExtraction methods are unconventional—fracking and horizontal drillingOils vary but tend to have similar properties (density, sulfur content) as conventional oil productHeavier hydrocarbons, more diesel-like make up

• Unconventional oils are an evolving species of new petroleum fuels

• Their quality will change over time

Source: IEA, David Fyfe, http://csis.org/files/attachments/110621_Energy_Fyfe.pdf

As oil quality changes so do the processes to refine them and the products they yield

Greenhouse Gas EmissionsComparing Conventional and Unconventional Oils

•Life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from oil sands are reported to increase by 5 to 15 percent [per mile driven] compared to the average crude refined in the United States

•Well-to-wheel emissions are one measure to compare the lifecycle GHGs from motor vehicles using different fuels

•Per barrel produced and per energy produced, GHG emissions increases from unconventional oils are estimated to be significantly greater than conventional oil—3x or more

Climate Considerationsof Unconventional Oil Production

All fuels except CTL: IEA Energy Technology Network, May 2010, http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/E-TechDS/PDF/P02-Uncon%20oil&gas-GS-gct.pdf CTL: EU Fuels Directive Draft, 2009

Petroleum Fuel Low Emissions Estimate

g CO2/MJ

High Emissions Estimate

g CO2/MJ

AverageEmissions Estimate

g CO2/MJ

Average Increase

UO compared to Conventional Oil

Conventional Oil 4.4 4.7 4.6

Oil Sand and Heavy Oils 9.3 16 12.6 3x

Oil Shale 13 50 31.5 7x

Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) -- -- 101 22x

Managing Climate Impactsfrom Unconventional Oils

Global unconventional resources are massive and largely untapped

Unconventional oil in the ground may be far greater than all of the world’s currently economically recoverable conventional oil

The paradigm shift to UOs highlights the need for early and comprehensive assessment of the environmental and social impacts of resource development, including the need for mitigation strategies and long range planning

Climate, environmental, and other social factors are not being fully considered in early UO developments worldwide.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Critical aspects [of unconventional oils] are often not well understood—for instance, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity or effects on water supplies.

Source: National Petroleum Council, September 15, 2011

• New oils will replace the loss of more than one-half of global conventional oil production through 2035

• Understanding and managing GHGs from Unconventional Oils matters to maintain the 2 oC climate safety threshold

New Fuels Require New Rules

Source: ExxonMobil, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, 2012