systems thinking for large scale agile | rolf häsänen | ltg-18
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Making Systems Visible
Talking Together
About Systems
Understanding
Complex Systems
Co-creating High Velocity Organizations
Systems Thinking powering the learning engine for large scale
Agile and Lean Journeys
Understanding of
Current Capacity Understanding of
real consequences
Accept newwork
+
-
Perceived benefits
of new project
+
Types of problems
• No unique “correct” view of the problem;• Different views of the problem and contradictory
solutions;• Most problems are connected to other problems;• Data are often uncertain or missing;• Multiple value conflicts;• Ideological and cultural constraints;• Political constraints;• Economic constraints;• Often a-logical or illogical or multi-valued thinking;• Numerous possible intervention points;• Consequences difficult to imagine;• Considerable uncertainty, ambiguity;• Great resistance to change;
Logic puzzles Dilemmas Messy & Wicked problems
Value space of System Dynamics
System Dynamics is a framework, language, tool and a way of thinking to approach complex situations in various types of systems (social, managerial, business, economy…)
Chaotic
Simple
Low
Low certainty
High
High certainty
Agre
emen
t
Political control
Experimentation
ComplexityDomain
Collaborative Systems Thinking
Modelling
Simulation
© 2012 ValueAtWork
”The significant problems cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that caused it”
-Albert Einstein
Case: The program manager that could
PMBOKPRINCE2
CHANGE MANAGEMENT BOARD
RISK MANAGEMENT BOARD
BUSINESS REQUIREMENTS PROJECT 5-6Months
ANALYSIS / DESIGN PROJECT
>12 months Waterfall process
>100 people
5 Countries
TESTFACTORY
DETAILED
ESTIMATIONSRequirements Frozen
10 Months before deadline
Controlling PMO
People parttime in project
Few agile pilots = No visible effect
Business not involvedafter initial work
Command & Control culture
Pressure = Motivation
Meet Bengt
HANDOFFS > 8 sitesZone of chaos at end
Detailed plans Multiple projects
Do not fail Take few big bets and manage your risks
Pressure to come up with
solutionMore planning
Risk managementDetailed processes
Virtual teams?More specialists
More managers
More management reviews
More testersMore pressure
Common view of project work
Quality aspect is missing
We have modelled iterative work
One more step is missing
”Lets look at our project”
We went into a deeper inquiry and exploration about dynamics of a
project
Customer came with more work & changes
Work to bedone
Work doneWork being
done
Knownrework
undiscovered rework
Error rate
Rework discovery
rate
Prioritizationrate
People Productivity Quality
More work & Changes
We act to catch up with the plan
Work to bedone
Work doneWork being
done
Knownrework
undiscovered rework
Error rate
Rework discovery
rate
Prioritizationrate
People Productivity Quality
Perceived Progress
Schedule Acceleration
Overtime
Hiring
Scheduled Completion time
Our actions cause rippleeffects
Work to bedone
Work doneWork being
done
Knownrework
undiscovered rework
Error rate
Rework discovery
rate
Prioritizationrate
People Productivity Quality
Perceived Progress
Schedule Acceleration
Overtime
Hiring
Fatigue/Burnout
Averageemployee
skill
Out-of-sequence WorkCoordination ProblemsWorksite Congestion
Moral problems
Scheduled Completion time
Until this happens
Rework amounts to
Consensus
Bengt
? Agile
Copyright 2013 Value At Work AB - www.valueatwork.se
16
Events
Patterns
Structures
Mental Models
Seen by others
Normally invisibleX
(REACT)
(Anticipate)
(Design)
(Transform)
What about our thinking allows this situation to persist?
What are the forces at play contributing to these patterns?
Whats been happening?
What Happened?
Leve
rage
and
Lea
rnin
g1. Uncovering invisible factors
Sealevel
2. Modelling together; 2+2=8
Design problems thisyear vs Time remaining
Resources on thisyears project
Resources on nextyears project
Progress on nextyear project
-
+
-
+
B
R
+
Project Overtime
Problems resolved
Fatigue &Overwork
+
+
-
+
New problemsdiscovered
+
+
BR
Work harder
Problem resolution& Rework
-
Rework loop
Tipping loop
Tipping loop
I. People’s mental models are limited by cognitive processing capabilitiesII. People tend to think in simple causal chains instead of networks of feedback loopsIII. People’s causal assumptions tend to be hidden
Group modelling surfaces underlying assumptions and creates a holistic shared problem-view
18
Collaborative Thinking & Modelling
“The smartness we need is collective not individualistic"
Peter Senge - problemsolving in the age of complexity
Case: Share knowledge across the organization at Ericsson
Milk Stock
Cows
Workers
Production Sales
liters per day percow
productivitymultiplier
Birth rate
Death Rate
Hiring Leaving
revenue
price
reinvestment
+
R
R
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
Milk Stock
Cows
Workers
Production Sales
liters per day percow
productivitymultiplier
Birth rate
Death Rate
Hiring Leaving
revenue
price
reinvestment
+
R
R
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
Milk Stock
Cows
Workers
Production Sales
liters per day percow
productivitymultiplier
Birth rate
Death Rate
Hiring Leaving
revenue
price
reinvestment
+
R
R
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
Milk Stock
Cows
Workers
Production Sales
liters per day percow
productivitymultiplier
Birth rate
Death Rate
Hiring Leaving
revenue
price
reinvestment
+
R
R
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
Stagnating
Improvement?
?
?
?Sharing learning
Copyright 2013 Value At Work AB - www.valueatwork.se
20
Stagnating Improvement problem
Performance started to level off after 18 months. Even a doubling of effort failed to produce any futher improvement.
Copyright 2013 Value At Work AB - www.valueatwork.se
21
What the group shared
ImprovementOpportunities
ImprovementRate
Performance
+
++
-
B R
No more slack Work smarter
Improvement Dynamics
400 Improvements20 Improvements/Month
0 Improvements0 Improvements/Month
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60Time
Performance : Current ImprovementsImprovement Opportunities : Current ImprovementsImprovement Rate : Current Improvements/Month
ImprovementOpportunities
PerformanceImprovement
Rate
+ +
ImprovementWork Adoption
Fraction
+ +
B R
Copyright 2013 Value At Work AB - www.valueatwork.se
22
Recommendation
Time
Performance
Incremental Improvments
Incremental Improvments
Incremental Improvments
SystemsRedesign
SystemsRedesign
Reactions
Milk Stock
Cows
Workers
Production Sales
liters per day percow
productivitymultiplier
Birth rate
Death Rate
Hiring Leaving
revenue
price
reinvestment
+
R
R
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
Milk Stock
Cows
Workers
Production Sales
liters per day percow
productivitymultiplier
Birth rate
Death Rate
Hiring Leaving
revenue
price
reinvestment
+
R
R
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
Milk Stock
Cows
Workers
Production Sales
liters per day percow
productivitymultiplier
Birth rate
Death Rate
Hiring Leaving
revenue
price
reinvestment
+
R
R
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
ImprovementOpportunities
PerformanceImprovement
Rate
+ +
ImprovementWork Adoption
Fraction
+ +
B R
Why has it taken so long to discover this method.I have been a manager
since 90ies
Most team learnings are applicable in our
department
Wow – too many learnings we could
apply at once we must prioritize which one to
start withWe want to ge back to
work and apply what we have learned now.
1. Learning to LearnRegular Learningful
Goal Win – your point prevails Learn – build shared understanding
Sensibility
When Advocating Present options as data but pretend your not. Hide your reasoning
Separate data from options.Reveal your reasoning
When challenged Defend your view but pretend your not.
Invite inquiry into your position as a way to improve it
When Inquiring Pin people – to prove them wrong
Understand – how is this person right?
A B C
A
B
C
2. Learning through experience
Lessons from yesterday are applied and tested tomorrow As tomorrow becomes yesterday test/experiment is validated
and learning evolves.
Milk Stock
Cows
Workers
Production Sales
liters per day percow
productivitymultiplier
Birth rate
Death Rate
Hiring Leaving
revenue
price
reinvestment
+
R
R
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
Milk Stock
Cows
Workers
Production Sales
liters per day percow
productivitymultiplier
Birth rate
Death Rate
Hiring Leaving
revenue
price
reinvestment
+
R
R
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
ImprovementOpportunities
PerformanceImprovement
Rate
+ +
ImprovementWork Adoption
Fraction
+ +
B R
ImprovementOpportunities
ImprovementRate
Performance
+
++
-
B R
No more slack Work smarter
Improvement Dynamics
400 Improvements20 Improvements/Month
0 Improvements0 Improvements/Month
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60Time
Performance : Current ImprovementsImprovement Opportunities : Current ImprovementsImprovement Rate : Current Improvements/Month
3. Building knowledge across organization
Experience sharing
Pattern seeking
Knowledge creating
Team1
Team2
Team3
Local teams Projects
Copyright 2013 Value At Work AB - www.valueatwork.se
27
Systems Thinking Continuum
Systems Awareness
Causal Loop Diagrams
Stock and Flow
Equations
Simulations
Robust Simulations Test
Systems knowledge ladder
What you can do if you want to learn System Dynamics
Link to my blog with resources about System Dynamics:
http://valueatwork.se/var-borjar-man-om-man-vill-lara-sig-systemdynamik/
http://v.gd/learn_SD <=Short version
Follow up study by physicist Graham Turneron Limits to Growth study from 1972
Read the following books
Your guide today
Rolf HäsänenSystems thinker, speaker. Passionate
about improvement, innovation and all things complex.
Little know factoids: Juggles kettlebells, Helped UN model Rift valley fever virus, photographslikes factoids.
@RolfHasanen
Rolf Häsänenwww.valueatwork.se
Co-creating High Velocity Organizations
Har du frågor när du hunnit reflektera över dagen
eller vill bara ge feedback om hur saker fungerat
Co-creating High Velocity Organizations
Rolf HäsänenRolf@valueatwork.se+46 70 680 68 12
I will talk about how Systems Thinking helped organizations to:• unlocking the full potential of team learning• create self coaching teams driven by the people focused on what truly
matters• capture and share knowledge across organizational boundaries• enable cross organizational teams to design solutions to long lived
complex problems• empower management teams to tackle complex business problems and
design policies to deal with these
In my experience agile and lean organisations are in a unique position to use and benefit from Systems Thinking as many existing mindsets and methods are closely related. My hope is that you will find seeds of useful information or ideas that you can cultivate in your own organization. During the talk I will also put Systems thinking in a context where it is useful and when not to use it.
Copyright 2013 Value At Work AB - www.valueatwork.se
32
The foundation of Systems Thinking
• Structure generates behaviour– Context plays a significant role in determining how people
behave. (I.e. Beer Game)• Mental Models control our world
– It is not enough to change a system’s physical structure. (i.e. Gorilla video)
• We're an important part of the structure.– In some cases, Pogo's words are the best reminder: "We
have met the enemy and he is us." Our normal instinct is normally to blame people not the system they live and work in.
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