system management principles statement

System Management Principles Statement

� Compliance report for June 2014 to August 2014� Summary of balancing actions and breaches for June 2014 to Aug 2014� Performance compared to last year

2

Summary Report

0

0

Aug-14

00Number of Non-Material Breaches

00Number of Material Breaches

Jul-14Jun-14

22

4

18

Aug-14

1916Total

612Total Number of Sell Actions

134Total Number of Buy Actions

Jul-14Jun-14

0

0

273

Aug-13

0Number of Non-Material Breaches

(Calendar year to date)

0Number of Material Breaches

(Calendar year to date)

174Number of Balancing Actions

(Calendar year to date)

Aug-14

Operational Overview

4

Month-ahead ensemble CWV October 2013 to Sept 2014 vs. Historical Range

-5

0

5

10

15

20

01/10/2013 01/11/2013 01/12/2013 01/01/2014 01/02/2014 01/03/2014 01/04/2014 01/05/2014 01/06/2014 01/07/2014 01/08/2014 01/09/2014

Deg

rees C

WV

Maximum to seasonal normal

Actual CWV

Ensemble forecasts

Minimum to seasonal normal

Mean Ensemble

Demands

6

Gas Demand Breakdown1st October 2013 to 27th August 2014 Vs Previous Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

mcm

NDM DM [Exc Interconnectors] Total Interconnector Export

Storage Injection Previous Years Actual Demand

7

Gas Demand Statistics1st October 2013 to 27th August 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Gas Year 13/14 Average

Gas Year 13/14 Max

Gas Year 13/14 Min

NDM DM [Exc Interconnectors]

Storage Injection Total Interconnector Export

9

Gas Demand Vs SND / Cold / Warm 1st October 2013 to 27th August 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

mcm

Total Demand SND Cold Warm

10

LDZ Actual Demand Vs LDZ SND 1st October 2013 to 28th August 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

Gas Year 13/14 Average Winter average [Oct to Mar] Summer average [Apr to Current Date]

mcm

LDZ Actual LDZ SND

12

Gas C

on

su

mp

tion

for P

ow

er G

en

era

tion

Octo

ber 2

013 to

Au

g 2

014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

01-Oct

08-Oct

15-Oct

22-Oct

29-Oct

05-Nov

12-Nov

19-Nov

26-Nov

03-Dec

10-Dec

17-Dec

24-Dec

31-Dec

07-Jan

14-Jan

21-Jan

28-Jan

04-Feb

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

04-Mar

11-Mar

18-Mar

25-Mar

01-Apr

08-Apr

15-Apr

22-Apr

29-Apr

06-May

13-May

20-May

27-May

03-Jun

10-Jun

17-Jun

24-Jun

01-Jul

08-Jul

15-Jul

22-Jul

29-Jul

05-Aug

12-Aug

mcm/d

Actu

al P

ow

er G

en

era

tion

de

ma

nd

Mo

de

lH

igh

Po

we

rP

revio

us Y

ea

r

Supplies

14

Gas Supply Breakdown 1st October 2013 to 26th August 2014 vs Previous Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

mcm

Gas Day

UKCS Norway BBL IUK LRS MRS SRS LNG Previous Year Supply

15

NSS [Non-Storage Supply] 1st October 2013 to 26th August 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Gas Year 13/14 Average

Gas Year 13/14 Max

Margins Notice Assumptions

Capacity

UKCS Norway LNG BBL IUK

16

IUK Flows Vs NBP & ZEE Price Differential1st October 2013 to 27th August 2014

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

01-Oct-13 01-Nov-13 01-Dec-13 01-Jan-14 01-Feb-14 01-Mar-14 01-Apr-14 01-May-14 01-Jun-14 01-Jul-14 01-Aug-14

pp

/th d

iffe

rential (

NB

P v

s. Z

ee)

mcm

/d

IUK IUK Import Capacity IUK Export Capacity IUK Price Dif ferential

+ IMPORT TO NBP

- EXPORT TO ZEE

17

LNG Terminal Flows1st October 2013 to 31st August 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

mcm

South Hook Isle of Grain Dragon Previous Year LNG

18

Norway Flows1st October 2013 to 31st August 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

mcm

Langeled Vesterled [estimated] FLAGS [estimated] Previous Year Norway

19

Norway vs LNG Flows1st October 2013 to 31st August 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14

mcm

Total Norway Total LNG

20

Storage Withdrawal Vs Injection1st October 2013 to 31st August 2014

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

Mcm

Withdrawal Injection

21

Long Range Storage Stocks [LRS]1st October 2013 to 2nd September 2014 Vs Previous Years

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14

twh

LRS 2012/2013 LRS 2013/2014

22

Medium Range Storage Stocks [MRS]1st October 2013 to 2nd September 2014 Vs Previous Years

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14

twh

MRS 2012/2013 MRS 2013/2014

23

Short Range Storage Stocks [SRS]1st October 2013 to 2nd September 2014 Vs Previous Years

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

01-Oct-13 01-Dec-13 01-Feb-14 01-Apr-14 01-Jun-14 01-Aug-14

twh

SRS 2012/2013 SRS 2013/2014

24

Combined EU Storage Stocks [% Full] From 1st October 2013 to 2nd September 2014 Vs Previous Years

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec 01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep

%

2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

25

UK Gas Prices 1st October 2013 to 31st August 2014 Vs Previous Years

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

01-Oct-13 01-Dec-13 01-Feb-14 01-Apr-14 01-Jun-14 01-Aug-14

p/p

therm

SAP SMPB SMPS Previous Year SAP

26

What Operational Issues Affected Users?

Transporter Actions and Neutrality

� Energy Balancing� Capacity

28

Transporter Energy Traded on the OCMNGG Monthly Buys and SellsAug 2013 to Aug 2014 Vs Previous Year

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

01-Aug-13 01-Oct-13 01-Dec-13 01-Feb-14 01-Apr-14 01-Jun-14 01-Aug-14

Gwh

Buy 2013/14 Buy Prev Year Sell 2013/14 Sell Prev Year

29

Days of Default SMP Prices [SMPB]From Sept 2013 to Aug 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

%

SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal]

30

Days of Default SMP Prices [SMPS]From Sep 2013 to Aug 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

%

SMPS [NG Set Price] SMPS [Default Marginal]

31

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit [Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM]May - July 2014

31,182,190

625,874

7,106,801

24,133,193

12,302,372

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

Credits Debits

Net Credit £2,479,299

32

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs May - July 2014

May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14

Imbalance Payment £ [DCS] -6,565,892 -9,093,615 -8,473,686

Charge £ [DCT] 14,338,457 8,158,583 8,685,150

Scheduling Exit Charge £ [DXS] 6,573 6,592 11,776

Exit Charge £ [EXS] 53,737 45,037 48,898

Entry Charge £ [ESC] 114,376 109,421 229,463

OCM Payment £ [TTB] -7,632,296 -1,441,933 -3,228,143

Charge £ [TTS] 1,942,318 2,916,747 2,247,736

Balancing Costs 2,257,274 700,831 -478,805

33

Energy Balancing – Balancing CostsOCM Payments / ChargesMay - July 2014

-1,500,000

-1,000,000

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

01/05/2014 15/05/2014 29/05/2014 12/06/2014 26/06/2014 10/07/2014 24/07/2014

£

Day

Payment [TTB] Charge £ [TTS]

34

Energy Balancing – Balancing CostsImbalance Payments / ChargesMay - July 2014

-1,500,000

-1,000,000

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

01/05/2014 15/05/2014 29/05/2014 12/06/2014 26/06/2014 10/07/2014 24/07/2014

£

Day

Payment £ [DCS]

Charge £ [DCT]

35

Energy Balancing – Balancing CostsScheduling ChargesMay – Jul 2014

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

01/05/2014 15/05/2014 29/05/2014 12/06/2014 26/06/2014 10/07/2014 24/07/2014

£

Day

Exit Charge £ [DXS]

Entry Charge £ [ESC]

Exit Charge £ [EXS]

36

Capacity NeutralityNet Cost / Revenue From 1st April 2014 to 31th August 2014

-£231,039Net Revenue

£0Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges

-£361Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only)

-£71,614Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue

£0Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs

-£159,064WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue

Revenue/Costs

37

Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue [Daily Obligated Entry Capacity and Interruptible Entry Capacity: WDDSEC + DAI] From 1st April 2014 to 31st August 2014

-£50,502

-£1,722

-£8,194

-£76,839

-£21,771

-£36

-90,000.00

-80,000.00

-70,000.00

-60,000.00

-50,000.00

-40,000.00

-30,000.00

-20,000.00

-10,000.00

0.00

St Fergus Teesside Barrow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton Other

£

Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue [WDDSEC + DAI]

38

Capacity NeutralityRevenues from Entry Cap Overruns and Non-Obligated Sales,and Locational Sells and PRI Charges. Totals From 1st April 2014 to 31st August 2014

£0 (FY14/15)Total

£0Mar-15

£0Feb-15

£0Jan-15

£0Dec-14

£0Nov-14

£0Oct-14

£0Sep-14

£0Aug-14

£0Jul-14

£0Jun-14

£0May-14

£0Apr-14

Locational Sells and PRI charges revenue

Month

Total

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Month

-£361(FY14-15)-£71,614 (FY14-15)

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

-Not yet available

--£34,442

--£23,853

-£108 -£8,271

-£253-£5,048

Non-obligated sales revenue

(entry)

Entry Cap Overrun Revenue

39

Customer Outputs (June – August 2014)

NoneMargins Notices

NoneGas Deficit Warnings

NoneOperating Margins

5 Gas Quality Breach 293 interventionsGas Quality Excursions

35 rejections127,383 OPNs received.

57,789 non-compliantRules Breached

100% successful71 Non Routine Operations completed

Maintenance

99.8129% achieved21 Breaches of Agreed / Assured Pressures

Pressure Obligations

No Scalebacks or Buy BacksNoneCapacity Constraints