system dynamic model for urmia lake presented at isdc 2015
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Toward Effective Water Diplomacy by Using System Dynamics: Case Study
The 33rd Int. Conf. of the System Dynamics SocietyCambridge, MA, July 19–23, 2015
Mahdi Zarghami, Mohammad Amir Rahmani
In the name of God
Massive WATER MISMANAGEMENTPhoto source http://www.greenfieldreporter.com/view/photos/2ccd4b895c9240849780b49cabf3bb04/789429673355
Precipitation, temperature and water level during 1966 to 2010
Zoljoodi and Didevarasl, Atmospheric and Climate Sciences (2014)6
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Lake VolumeEvaporation
Temperature
Rainfall
GroundwaterGW Extraction
Total Demand
PopulationBirth Death
Migration
Agr. Demand
Domestic Demand
Indust. Demand
Agr AreaDecrease AreaIncrease Area
Cloud seedingoff/on
Save
Recharge Coef.
From Lake toGroundwater
Lake AreaDirect rainfall
<Time>Climate Change
Scenario
<Time>
<Lake Area>
Evaporation Rate
F(Volume-Area)
Birth Rate Death Rate
Migration Rate
Agr Need perArea
Rate of surfaceconsupmtion
Domestic Demandper Capita
Surface Water
Surface WaterExtraction
Available surfacewater
Outlet to Lake
Runoff
Recharge
<Rainfall>
Pan Coeff
Salt Coeff
Agr Area in BaseYear
Rate of GroudnwaterConsumption
Density of CultivationDensity Increase
Discharge innonagri season
Discahrge in agrseason
Shortage fromsurface water
<Shortage fromsurface water>
Runoff Coef Aveg forUpper Areas
Controlled water innonagri season
<Time>
Surface WaterSupposed Consumption
Groundwater SupposedConsumption
EfficiencyIncrease
Efficieny IncreasePolicy
<Alarm>
Diversion fromZaab
Diversion fromAras
Upper Areas ofWatershed
Middle Areas ofWatershed
Runoff Coef Aveg forMiddle Areas
<Upper Areas ofWatershed>
<Middle Areas ofWatershed>
Average of UpperCoef
Average ofMiddle Coef
Diversion from Arasin Model
Aras off/on
<Time>
Zaab off/on
Diversion fromZaab in Model
<Controlled water innonagri season>
<Time>
Drainage toSurface Water
<Drainage toSurface Water>
Consumed Water
Change-Alarm
<Ala
<Rainfall>
Surface Return
Rate of SurfaceReturn<Consumed
Water>
Rate ofGrounwater Return
GroundwaterReturn
<News><Percentage of
Supply>
Birth Rate-Percentage of Supply
Level
A1B Temp
A2 Temp
B1 Te
A1B Precp
A2 Precp
B1 Precp<Climate Change
Scenario>
Cloud SeedingCloud SeedingImpact
EIT
<Time>
<T
CostDe
Cloud SeedingCost
Cost of EffIncrea
<Domestic and IndWater Pricing Policy>
<Agriculture WaterPricing Policy>
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Acknowledgments!
Prof. Shafiqul Islam (Tufts University), M. Mahdi Hashemian (MIT), Terrence Smith (Tufts University), and John Ikeda (World Bank)
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This world is the mountain, and our action the shout; the echo of the shouts comes(back) to usMaulana Rumi (1207 – 1273)
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