sustainagility - future of commodities in a green tech world, sustainability keynote for koch by...

SustainAgility how green tech, smart innovation and agile leadership will help protect our world and

impact commodity markets

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

“80-95% carbon reduction” Fantasy or Future?

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ALL BIG TRENDS ARE RELATED!!

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Need to forecast energy / commodities in context of pan-global framework!!

Wild  Cards:  Risk  Management

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Strategies often overtaken by

events !

World can change faster than you can hold a

board meeting

Oil >$100 a barrel accelerates innovation Even strong climate sceptics “go green”

WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

US  GDP  1980-­‐2013    (%,constant  prices)  

EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013    (%,constant  prices)  

>40% WDP by 2015! • IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity

Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  

$3.4  trillion    !

$2.4  trillion    !

Reserves  

Complexity and scale create extra risks

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You need more than

one strategy or scenario

The future of energy is aboutEMOTION

Growth  of  Middle  Class  in  Africa  250m  people  -­‐  $2  trillion  by  2040  

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Commodities: 300 million move to cities in China!475 million to cities in Africa by 2030!

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 11%  wage  inflaRon  in  China  in  2013  -­‐  similar  in  2014  

Nearshoring  Boom  

1  billion  over  60s  in  10  years

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Europe Dying !!

4 couples to !produce single!great-grand child!!

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1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time!

Future of Health will be shaped by emotion

1  week                                                      every  4  

 11%  wage  inflaRon  in  China  in  2013  -­‐  similar  in  2014  

Nearshoring  Boom  

Slow or no ageing is a reality

•Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales !

•No signs of getting old

$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

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“EU  emissions  of  CO2  equivalent  to  a  carpet  of    

CO2  =  28cms  thick  each  year  over  enRre  land  mass”  

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Lessons from Shale Gas and where next

for global energy industry

Shale gas 33% US supplies

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200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years - US oil production > Saudi Arabia by 2017

Future of Gas ?

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These forecasts also likely to

be wrong

5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawa@s  wind !

57  closed  in  US  in  2012-­‐14 Cheaper  coal  means  more  coal  will  be  burnt  in  Asia  

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert

Why China will dominate wind power industry “40% EU power = wind by 2050”

Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useFuture of Desert Power

Solar cell generation parity

Long  term  future  for  solar  cells

• Future for next-generation Super-Grids

Enough salt caverns to power germany for a week

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•10% capacity used 4 days a year in Australia •Average $50 à peak $10,000 per MWhr

Managing  Peak  Power    

Lessons  from  Germany  Power  Surplus

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• June  2013  electricity  prices  became  negaRve  -­‐EU150  /  MWhr  !!

Future of Smart Power Regulation Utility Co controls consumption in homes / factories

�Russia pressure on Ukraine gas

�US national security worries �Energy = Economic Power

Tribal Energy - Russia - US

�Subsidies

�58% for fossil fuels �29% for nuclear

�Regulations

�Will impact energy markets for 50 years

Government Action will distort Energy Markets

Nuclear  energy  -­‐  expect  global  growth….�Challenge to achieve carbon reduction AND cut nuclear �Wild card = dirty terror bomb or another meltdown

�30 million acres lost

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�EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food

25% of 2010 US grain fuel

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40% US corn burnt in vehicles Using 100% US corn would only drive 25% of vehicle miles

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Biofuel impact on food prices

Smart heating or cooling Save 30-50% energy - payback 4 years

�5% to 2% of US / EU energy �120 million EU street lamps �75% replace in 15 years at unit cost of $750 including labour

New Street Lamps save 3%

national energy

•70% new buildings in Sweden •45% new buildings in New Zealand •Payback 15 years but boosts electricity demand

Heat Pumps save up to 50% energy

30% + of lifetime energy use = build and demolishConstruction: build offices to last

Problem  of  Old  Tires  –  gassificaPon  

Recycling: save up to 70% energy Tyres to clean gas + steel in 5 minutes

>30%  energy  savings  with  green  tech

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Tyres  –  4.3%        Streamlining  –  12%      1.5  metres  longer  –  5%  Hybrid  engine  –  30%      Heat  power  air  con  ec  –  5%  

Shocks    power  –  4%          Slow  from  65  to  55mph    -­‐  20%  

SAVE  ENERGY  ON  EVERY  TRUCK  !

30% EU trucks run empty

“We  waste  25  million    miles  a  year  driving  empty  trucks”    

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US  major  retailer  

150kms by road can cost more than 10,000kms by sea

Fuel Cell shipments up 200%

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Burn in pure oxygen - Bury pure CO2 !

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Carbon capture - Carbon sequestration

�World’s largest derivative market ?

Future of Carbon Trading

Fusion of Water and Energy

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Power use = 4x Industry in UK

�1 billion have no safe drinking water

�2.3 billion at risk of drought

�4.5 billion at risk by 2050

� Tomato                   13 litre � Slice of bread          50 litre � Egg                        146 litre � Pint beer               170 litre � Burger               2,400 litres � Sheet of paper      13.6 litres � Cotton teashirt    4,000 litres � Leather shoes     9,600 litres � Pair of jeans      11,000 litres

150 litres a day of direct water use

4.6 tons water used a day / person in EU

�48,000 major dams world-wide

�400,000 square kilometres

�78,000 small dams in US alone – many need repair

Huge future for Dams

�1.5m gallons a day into $19m desalination plant à

�Pumped into sandstone acquifer under Chandler City, Arizona

�Replaces 75% of water used by factory

Intel saves water in Desert City

�55 million cubic metres water capacity a day from sea water �Expect energy use / cubic metre to fall by 50% in 20 years

Desalination: Next Generation

800 billion cubic metres of water traded virtually every year = 10 river Niles

�1 kg wheat – 1 cubic metre of water �40kg wheat = 40 ton water tanker �40 ton lorry of wheat = 2,500 lorries of water (100,000 tons) !

�If food tarifs lifted, Virtual Water Trade would double to 1,600 bn cubic metres a year

Trading Virtual Water

�For individuals

�For family

�For community

�For whole earth

Making Life Better Green tech will help our world in a profitable way

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

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