surveying expo | 25 july 2014 david sykes senior demographic researcher
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SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014
David SykesSenior Demographic Researcher
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Looking back 40 years: Melbourne
19712011Population2.4 million4.1 millionAge mix (0-17, 18-64, 65+)33% / 59% / 8%22% / 65% / 13%Life expectancyMale: 68 Female: 75Male: 79 Female: 84Manufacturing job share33%14%No of containers at Port of Melbourne Few Swanston Dock opened in 19692.4 millionAverage house price $14,800 (mean)$500,000 (median)Average house price(Port Melbourne)25% below metro average (1981)85% above metro averagePopulation of Melton6,000100,000
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3Changing distribution of changeMelbourne 80s to early 90sMelbourne 2000s
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3Total dwelling approvals 2001-2013CENTRALSOUTHERNEASTERNNORTHERNWESTERN18%27%15%19%22%
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3Annual dwelling approvals change over a decadeCENTRALSOUTHERNEASTERNNORTHERNWESTERN+63%-11%-4%+47%+18%GREATER MELBOURNE+17%
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3Changing dwelling typesSource: ABS Building Approvals
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3Victorian population facts as at 2013Total Population:5.79 million
Annual growth:107,900 (1.9% p.a.)
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3Victorian population facts as at 2013Total Population:5.79 million
Annual growth:107,900 (1.9% p.a.)
Net overseas migration:62,300Net interstate migration: 7,500Natural increase:38,100
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Some trends are unmistakeable2Strong growthUrbanisationChanging age structure
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Projections driven by strong natural increase and overseas migration
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Categories of net overseas migrationNet Overseas Migration, by major groupings and visa, Victoria 2010-11OtherTemporaryPermanent
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80%+ of Victorias growth in Melbourne 5Source: ABS 2013; DTPLI 2014ProjectedHistoric+1.9m+1.6m (80%)+4.5m+3.6m (82%)
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Total population change by LGA, 2011-31
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Average annual growth rate by LGA, 2011-31
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Proportion of population aged 0-19 years, 2031
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Proportion of population aged 65+ years, 2031
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Households by Type, 2011-51May not sum to 100% due to rounding
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Couple family without childrenCouple family with childrenGroup households and other familiesFemale lone personMale lone personOne parent familyHousehold Types, 2011 2031
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Couple family without childrenCouple family with childrenGroup households and other familiesFemale lone personMale lone personOne parent familyHousehold Types, 2011 2031
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Couple family without childrenCouple family with childrenGroup households and other familiesFemale lone personMale lone personOne parent familyHousehold Types, 2011 2031
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Uncertain CertainLong termchangeShort term changePopulation will growPopulation will ageMost pop growth will be in cities Melbs pop will reach 5 m / 6mHow population will change in Individual LGAsWill a 60 year old behave in 2034as a 60 year old behaves in 2014?The number of 60 year olds in 2034Future levels of overseas migrationWhen Melbs pop reaches 5m / 6mCertainty and uncertainty
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3Certainty and uncertainty
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3Projection horizonCertainty and uncertainty
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31971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/Certainty and uncertainty
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3www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review1971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/Certainty and uncertainty2011
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3www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review1971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/www.digitaltrends.com/features/faster-forward-imagining-the-future-car-of-2050/#!9RImc2051?Certainty and uncertainty2011
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32011www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review1971www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/www.digitaltrends.com/features/faster-forward-imagining-the-future-car-of-2050/#!9RImc2051?Certainty and uncertainty
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Looking back 40 years,looking forward 40 years: Melbourne
197120112051Population2.4 million4.1 million7.8 millionAge mix (0-17, 18-64, 65+)33% / 59% / 8%22% / 65% / 13%21% / 58% / 21%Life expectancyMale: 68 Female: 75Male: 79 Female: 84Male: 88 Female: 90Manufacturing job share33%14%?No of containers at Port of Melbourne Few Swanston Dock opened in 19692.4 million8 million?(2035)Average house price $14,800 (mean)$500,000 (median)?Average house price(Port Melbourne)25% below metro average (1981)85% above metro average?Population of Melton6,000100,000350,000-400,000k?
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SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014
David SykesSenior Demographic Researcher
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