support system for spatial vulnerability assessment
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Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy Spatial vulnerability assessment
Valutazione della vulnerabilità dei Comuni Trentini ai Cambiamenti Climatici
CLIMaticchangeimpactsonfutureAvailabilityofWAterREsourcesandhydro-geologicalrisks(CLIMAWARE)
DICAM-DipartimentodiIngegneriacivile,ambientaleemeccanica
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PhD Rocco Scolozzi, Prof. Davide Geneletti
Spatial vulnerability assessment
1. Clusteranalysisforsocialsurvey2. IPCCframeworkanddefinitions3. ExamplesatEUlevel4. SensitivityanalysisformunicipalitiesofTrentoProvince5. Adaptationcapacityanalysis6. Sectorassessment(tobefurtherdeveloped)
Cluster analysis for social survey
• Objective:tosupportstratificationofTrentoProvincesample• Maxdifferentiationamongtheclusters(max3-5groups)• Feasiblewithdataatmunicipallevel
➔Candidateclimatevariables:• variablesamongthemostrecognizableanddistinguishablebythepeople(withoutinstrumentation)
• interestingfortheirvariabilityinrecentperiods(1961-1990vs.198-2010).
CollaborationwithEmanuelaBozzini,Dep.ofSociologyandSocialResearch
Cluster analysis for social survey
• Modelingandmapping• Modelling(forelevation)andinterpolationofpointclimatedataforperiods1961-1990and198-2010(byLaviniaLaiti&Co.)
• ExtractionbyLandUseandmunicipalitylayer• Integrationintabledataofmunicipalities
Cluster analysis for social survey
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ClusterDaysC°>25
(inareeresidenziali)
averagemonthlyprecipitation(Dec-Jan-Feb)
Population2001 Municipalities
1 62,1 154,3 288’824 802 36,7 125,0 78’541 723 51,1 185,0 109’652 71
IPCC framework and definitions
IPCC framework and definitions
• Exposure:Thenatureanddegreetowhichasystemisexposedtosignificantclimaticvariations.
• Sensitivity:Thedegreetowhichasystemisaffected,eitheradverselyorbeneficially,byclimaterelatedstimuli.
• Adaptivecapacity:theabilityofanaturalorhumansystemtoadjusttopotentialdamage,totakeadvantageofopportunities,ortocopewiththeconsequences.
• Vulnerability:Thedegreetowhichasystemissusceptibleto,orunabletocopewith,adverseeffectsofclimatechange.Vulnerabilityisafunctionofthecharacter,magnitude,andrateofclimatevariationtowhichasystemisexposed,itssensitivity,anditsadaptivecapacity.
http://climatechange.lta.org
Prepare for Vulnerability
Planningforvulnerabilitytoclimatechangegenerallyinvolvesthreesteps:1. Determinewhichresourcesarevulnerabletochangingconditions.By
identifyingthemostvulnerableresources,weareabletoprioritizeourconservationactions.Thevulnerabilityofaresourceisdeterminedbyexposure,sensitivity,andtheabilitytoadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.
2. Determinewhythoseresourcesarevulnerable.Itisnotenoughtoknowthataparticularresourceisvulnerable.Wealsomustknowwhytheresourceisvulnerable.Thisallowsustochooseconservationactionsthataremostlikelytoreducethethreatsposedbyclimatechange.
3. Usethisinformationtoguideactionsthatwillreducevulnerability,anddevelopstrategicadaptationstrategies,fostercollaborationatdifferentscales
Example: ESPON Climate
ESPON2013Programme,partlyfinancedbytheEuropeanRegionalDevelopmentFund
Climate Change and Territorial Effects onRegions and Local Economies
www.espon.eu
ESPON - European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion
Changeofannualmeantemperature
Decreaseofnumberoffrostdays
Changeofnumberofsummerdays
Changeofmeanwinterprecipitation
Changeofmeansummerprecipitation
Changeofnumberofheavyrainfalldays
Changeofannualmeanevaporation
Changeofnumberofdayswithsnowcover
Changeinoccurrenceofriverflooding
Changeofmeansealevel
ExposureExample: ESPON Climate
(changes1961-1990and2071-2100*)
*Using the IPCC climate scenario A1B
Examples from ESPONPhysical sensitivity• Settlements sensitive to flash floods• Roads and railways sensitive to flash floods• Settlements sensitive to river flooding• Roads and railways sensitive to river flooding• Airports and harbours sensitive to river flooding• Settlements sensitive to coastal flooding• Roads and railways sensitive to coastal flooding• Airports and harbours sensitive to coastal flooding
Examples from ESPON
Environmental sensitivity• Forests sensitive to forest fires• Protected natural areas • Areas prone to soil erosion • Soil organic carbon
Examples from ESPONEconomic sensitivityAgriculture sensitive to water availabilityForestry sensitive to water availabilitySummer tourism sensitive to summer temperaturesWinter tourism sensitive to snow cover changesEnergy demand sensitive to summer heatEnergy demand sensitive to winter frostEnergy supply sensitive to changing river water levels
Examples from ESPON
Social sensitivityPopulation sensitive to summer heatPopulation sensitive to coastal floodingPopulation sensitive to river floodingPopulation sensitive to flash floods
Examples from ESPON
Cultural sensitivityUNESCO Cultural World Heritage Sites sensitive to river floodingUNESCO Cultural World Heritage Sites sensitive to coastal floodingMuseums sensitive to river floodingMuseums sensitive to sea level rise
Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy
Climatestimuli Target IndicatorUnitofmeaure
Temperaturestress Population
Populationover65yearold N°
Days>25C° N°
Waterstress
Tourism Tourismservicespersonnel N°
Agriculture Personnel N°
Population Totalprecipitation m3
Sensitivity to climate change at municipal level
Climatestimuli Target Indicator Unitàdimisura
Waterstress
1. CapacitàdiassorbireeventualioccupatinelturismoincrisiperCC
Incidenzaaddettiaiservizialberghieriecomplementarisutotaleaddetti(eccetto
agricoltura)%
1. CapacitàdiassorbireeventualioccupatiinagricolturaincrisiperCC
Incidenzadeglioccupatiinagricoltura %
Temperaturestress1. Capacitàdigestire
popolazionepiùesposta Incidenzadellapopolazionedi65annieoltre %
Trust(istitutions) 1. Propensioneaseguireindicazionidiemergenza
Questionario:IncasodiordinedievacuazionedellaProtezioneCivilesarebbedisponibilealasciarelasuaabitazione
perundeterminatotempo?(risposta:scala1-5,es.no-certamente)
Socialnetwork 1. Capacitàditrovareunasistemazione-rifugio
Questionario:Incasodiemergenzasarebbeingradoditrovareunasistemazionetemporanea(peralcunigiorni)perleielasuafamigliain24ore,adesempiopressoparentioamici?Risposta:da1-conestremadifficoltàa5-senzaproblemi
Adaptive capacity at municipal level
Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy
Climatestimuli Target Indicator Definition u.m.
Esposizionestressidrico
Agriculture
GAP1domanda/offerta
Differenzatrabisognototaleedisponibilitàlordaattuale
m3
GAP1bdomanda/offertaDifferenzatrabisognototalescenarioedisponibilitàlordascenario m3
Tourism
GAP2domanda/offerta
Differenzatrabisognototaleedisponibilitàlordaattuale
m3
GAP2bdomanda/offerta
Differenzatrabisognototalescenarioedisponibilitàlordascenario
m3
Esposizionerischioalluvione
Industry
ESP1Areeproduttiveinfrastrutture Areeattualiattualmentearischio ha
ESP1bAreeproduttiveinfrastrutture
Areescenarioarischioscenario(inmancanza,rischioattuale) ha
Population
ESP2Areeresidenziali
Areeattualiattualmentearischio ha
ESP2bAreeresidenziali
Areescenarioarischioscenario(inmancanza,rischioattuale)
ha
Exposure at municipal level
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