sub-module ii:the agrarian questions facing africa professor sam moyo 1
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SUB-MODULE II: THE AGRARIAN QUESTIONS FACING AFRICA
Professor Sam Moyo
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1.0 Neoliberal Agricultural Policy Framework1.1 Agricultural output marketing policies vs protection/subsidies1.1.1 Agricultural commodity markets de-regulation
• Marketing boards (minimalism)- monopolies; storage/distribution services
• Price (de)regulation-stabilisation; pan-territorial;
3
1.2 Agricultural trade liberalisation
• Quantitative restrictions removed• Tarrifs reduced
4
1.3 Agricultural production support policies
• Direct and indirect production subsidies reduced (inputs; exchange rate and forex allocations)
• Research and Extension services privatised or cut
5
1.4 Agricultural development finance
• Credit/ Agricultural banks (interest rates; targeted supply)
• Water and irrigation development• ?
6
1.5 Land tenure reform policies
• Land tenure individualisation and markets• Decentralised land administration• Special investor land grants and leases
7
1.6 Social welfare policies vs demand compression
• Loss of social transfers (free education, etc)• Rural development infrastructures
8
2.0 Performance of African Agriculture2.1 ??2.2 Productivity Question: Agricultural Production Trends2.2.1 Agriculture in aggregate production (crops, livestock, food, other)
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
20
09-1
0*
20
00-1
0*
*
20
09-1
0*
20
00-1
0*
*
20
09-1
0*
20
00-1
0*
*
20
09-1
0*
20
00-1
0*
*
Crops Livestock Food Non food
%
2009-10*: % change by latest; 2000-10**: % p.a growth
Fig. 2.1 Agriculture in aggregate production: Gross per capita index (2004-06= 100)
Source: FAO (2013)
9
2.2.2 Net agricultural production per capita index
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Agriculture (World)
Cereals (World)
Agriculture (Africa)
Cereals (Africa)
Fig 2.2.2 Net Agricultural production per capita Index (2004-2006 = 100):1970-2011
Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
10
2.2.3 Cereal production trends2.2.3 (a) Cereal output trends
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
mil
lion
tons
Barley
Maize
Millet
Rice
Sorghum
Wheat
Cereals
Fig 2.2.3(a) Cereal production (tonnes) in Africa (1970-2011)
Source: FAOSTAT (2010; 2013)
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2.2.3 (b) Cereal cropped area
0
20
40
60
80
100
1201
97
0
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
mil
lio
n h
a Maize
Millet
Rice
Sorghum
Wheat
Cereals
Fig 2.2.3 (b) Cereal cropped area (ha) in Africa (1970-2011)
Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
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2.2.3(c) Cereal yields (tons/ha)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
kg
/ha
Maize
Millet
Sorghum
Wheat
Cereals
Rice
Fig. 2.2.3(c) Cereal yields (kg/ha) in Africa (1970-2011)
Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
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2.2.3 (d) Cereal crop yields2.2.3 (e) African crop yields
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
19
61
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
09
20
10
20
11
kg
/ha
Cereals
Pulses
Roots/tubers
Fibers
Oil crops
Fruit
Vegetables
Tree nuts
Fig 2.2.3 (e) African crop yields (kg/ha), 1961-2011
Source: Dietz (2011); *FAO (2013); **FAOSTAT (2013)
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2.2.4 Livestock production2.2.4 (a) Livestock production (million tonnes) (1970s/1980s)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
mill
ion
to
ns
Year
Meat
Milk
Poultry Meat
Sheep and Goat Meat
Fig 2.2.4 (a) Livestock production (million tonnes)
Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1801
97
0
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
kg
/ca
p/y
r
World
Africa
Fig 2.2.5 Africa Cereal (excl. beer) supply quantity
Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
16
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
'000
US$
Maize import
Agricult.Products,Total imports
Cereals imports)
Maize exports
Agricult.Products,Total exports
Cereals exports
Fig 2.3.1 Africa agricultural products, cereals and maize trade (‘000 US$)
Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
17
2.3.2 Volume of cereal trade (imports/exports)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1999 2007 2008 2009
mil
lio
n to
ns
Imports
Exports
Fig.2. 3.2: Volume of cereal trade in Africa
Source: FAO (2013)
18
2.3.4 Cereal food aid shipments to Africa
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
800000019
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
13
Ton
nes
Africa
Eastern Africa
Middle Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
Fig 2.3.4 Cereal food aid shipments to Africa
Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
19
2.4 Agricultural Investments and Sustainability?
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.52
00
2
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
mil
lio
n to
ns Nitrogen Fertilizers
(N total nutrients)
Phosphate Fertilizers (P205 total nutrients)
Potash Fertilizers (K20 total nutrients)
Fig.2.4.1 (a) Fertiliser consumption in nutrients (tonnes) in Africa
Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
20
2.4.2 Capital and investment in agriculture: Gross Capital Stock (constant 2005 prices) (USD million)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
Land Development
Livestock (Fixed Assets)
Machinery & Equipment
Plantation Crops
Capital Stock + (Total)
Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
21
2.4.2 (b) Capital and investment in agriculture: Agricultural capital stock (constant 2005 prices)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
1980 1990 2000 2007
US
$ M
illi
on
s North Africa
West Africa
Central Africa
East africa
Southern Africa
Africa
Fig 2.4.2 (b) Capital and investment in agriculture: Agricultural capital stock (constant 2005 prices)
Source: FAO (2013)
22
3.0 Effects of Agricultural liberalisation 3.1 Slow growth and rising poverty
• Economic liberalization since 1980s generally slowed growth, poverty reduction + increased inequality + vulnerability in most countries
• Slower growth (except 2003-2008)• Policy prescriptions, often imposed, have reduced
policy space• Less growth, revenue due to liberalization (tax
competition) reduced fiscal means• Reduced policy + fiscal space adverse effects for
poverty + destitution
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3.2 Declining terms of trade
• International terms of trade have moved against developing countries
• 1. Primary commodities vs manufactures • 2. Tropical vs. temperate agriculture• 3. South vs North manufactured Xs• Generic manufactures vs monopolistic
manufactures protected by IPRs?• -Immisering growth?
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3.3 Negative capital flows and high costs
• Converse of advocates’ claims:• K flows not from K rich to K poor Except E Asia
early + mid-1990s• Costs of funds not lower• Some old sources of volatility + instability
reduced, but new sources introduced
25
3.4 Not enough food and Price vulnerability
• Poverty line mainly defined as money income to avoid hunger, but huge discrepancies between poverty + hunger measures
• FAO: 963m. hungry world-wide – up by 142m. since 1990-92• Higher food prices: more hungry• MDG1? Poverty down, hunger up since 1990!!! (Not lack of food)• Before price spike, 1.4bn chronically hungry, 2+bn more
undernourished ; 18,000 kids die daily for poor nutrition• More food price volatility, levels• 2007-8 food prices spiked, then declined • Food prices rose again in 2010 until mid-2011à more hunger à
more poverty
26
3.4(b) Drivers of food crisis: fundamentals vs financialisation
• Fundamentals include agribusiness concentration, subsidies, e.g. bio-fuels
• Futures, options financial asset class • Most investment strategies pro-cyclical
27
4.0 Some Case Studies: Mexico Maize
• The Mexico experience with maize by Alejandro
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