strategic encirclement of pakistan in the post 2014 afghanistan

Strategic Encirclement of Pakistan in the post 2014 Afghanistan

By Masood.Ur.Rehman KhattakAugust 19, 2013

India and Iran are going to be strategic partners in the post 2014 Afghanistan. Iran holds a key position as far as India’s contiguous vicinity is concerned. India is a booming economy. According to World Bank India’s economic growth is likely to accelerate to over 6 per cent during the current financial year April 2013-March 2014.1 India’s GDP nominal stands at $1.824 trillion, which is 10th largest in the world, whereas GDP PPP is $4.684 trillion.2 Such a huge economy would need huge energy base to support its economic development. This is the reason that India is eyeing to get access to energy rich Central Asia and Afghanistan via Iranian seaport of Chabahar. 

Iran is second largest oil supplier to India which accounts for 12% of its annual requirements worth $12 billion.3 But due to the US pressure these imports may see a sharp decline in coming years. 

India and Iran were closely aligned during Taliban government in Afghanistan. They supported Northern Alliance against Taliban, because Tehran and New Delhi were barred from Afghanistan during Taliban regime. The alliance between India and Iran is mature now; they are going to get strong foothold in Afghanistan through infrastructure projects. 

The return of Taliban regime would be unacceptable to India and Iran, because they

know that Taliban would never allow them to play any role in Afghanistan. This is one of the greatest challenges they face while playing Afghan gamble. 

India and Iran are in close economic relationship, although the volume of trade between both countries is not comparable to America or Israel. But despite that Iran’s importance cannot be ignored in India’s strategic calculus. Trade between both countries stood at $15,968.03 million during 2011-2012 as compared to $12,887.52 million in 2007-2008. The major segment of this trade is import of oil from Iran. 

Iran is vital for India because of its geographical propinquity and commonality of interests in the region. During the EAM’s visit, India and Iran pledged to boost their bilateral trade to $25 billion in the next few years.4 

Relationship between Iran and India is based on mutual cooperation and understanding. India imports 70% of its oil needs and it is expected that in next few years this demand may reach at 90%.5 India needs a country that can help to overcome its energy deficiency whereas Iran is in search of support by a country like India at regional and global level to move forward with its nuclear program and also achieve its regional interests vis-à-vis Afghanistan and Central Asia. 

India and Iran have convergence of interests, both countries want to move on with long term energy pacts, both want to secure their economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan and counter any radical (Taliban) regime in Afghanistan that may hurt their interests in the post 2014 situation. 

In August 28, 2012 Indian PM Manmohan Singh on his visit to Iran to participate in NAM summit clearly expressed his government’s desire to have close relationship with Iran. 

He said: “there is lot of interest in doing business with India and getting Indian investment in infrastructure. There are of course difficulties imposed by western sanction, but subject to that I think we will explore ways and means of developing our relations with Iran”.6 

He has been realistic in his approach that there are challenges imposed by the US and other western nations. But despite all these challenges India is willing to take risk and go ahead with Iran on several infrastructure projects in Iran and Afghanistan. 

Apart from Indian PM’s assertion in 2012, in May 4 2013 Indian foreign minister

Salman Khurshid and his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Salehi under the framework of joint commission highlighted four major cooperation areas. 

1. Regional connectivity (Iran to Afghanistan and Central Asia). 

2. To enhance bilateral trade and economic cooperation 

3. Cooperation on Regional Security issues (Afghan war, US Withdrawal and reconciliation process in Afghanistan) and 

4. Enhancing cultural and people-to-people contacts. 

India and Iran are closely working on these lines. India has pledged to support Iran on the up gradation of Chabahar port. Iran's Chabahar Port lies 72 kilometers West of Pakistan's Gawadar Port, and is connected to the city of Zaranj in Afghanistan's southwestern province of Nimruz.7 Chabahar port is very significant as far as India’s doorway to Afghanistan is concerned. This port is also referred to as the ‘Golden Gate’ to the landlocked Central Asian States and Afghanistan. This port would provide India access to Afghanistan and Central Asian States. It would reduce India, CAS and Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistan. India and Iran have also taken some important steps in April 2008.8 Both countries have agreed to establish a rail link between Iran and Russia. All these initiative would give boost to regional trade and investment. 

Despite all these opportunities there are fears in the minds of Indian and Iranian Policy makers that these infrastructure projects would face severe security threats from Taliban. In light of such security threats the investment and development projects undertaken by India and Iran would be impractical. Iran and India are also facing some challenges. 

First, it is Western pressure, previously India voted against Iran at IAEA. There is a possibility that in future if US-Iran nuclear standoff gets worse, then India would have no other option but to choose the stronger party----the United States. India is in strategic deal with the US and Israel. India will never sacrifice its nuclear deal for Iran; it would never strain its relations with the US and other countries in nuclear suppliers group. Israel is a major supplier of weapon and equipment to India; it is open secret that Israel would never want Iran to become a nuclear weapon state or get stronger economically with the help of any other country. It is obvious that India would choose Israel over Iran in future because of Israel’s standing in the world. 

Second major challenge for India and Iran would be the security of these projects. According to an Indian official close to the project although “India's plans look to exploit Afghanistan's mineral reserves, the threat to any rail development from the Taliban and other militant groups would be so great that it would have to be regarded as a strategic rather than commercial project. "They could blow it up at any time".9 

The road and rail links connecting Iran with Afghanistan and Central Asia would face extreme danger of sabotage and assault. Anti-India and anti- Iran forces in Afghanistan would do their best to hinder these projects. It is imperative for Iran and India to first settle Afghan issue amicably and take on board all stake holders over these issues, only then such projects would succeed in Afghanistan. 

Third challenge could be Pakistan’s possible response to such partnership, which may reduce Pakistan’s importance in this region. Afghanistan may again become a battleground for extended proxy war among Iran, Pakistan and India. Pakistan’s possible response to such partnership cannot be overlooked.10 It is a possibility that Iran and India may again use northern alliance to control Afghanistan, which may provoke Pakistan to align with Taliban. Such a scenario would be dangerous for the future of Afghanistan. There is a possibility of civil war in such a situation, which may plunge Afghanistan into further mayhem and turmoil. The best way out from this quagmire is collaboration and cooperation among Pakistan, India, Iran and Afghanistan. Afghanistan should never be used as a proxy ground by any country. 

Other important challenge for India would be its close relationship with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The GCC states are largest trade partners of India. In 2011-12 the trade with GCC crossed $124 billion mark. GCC’s and Iran are in ideological clash and their relationship has never been cordial. India would have to take some tough decisions in near future. It cannot ignore importance of GCC states. Therefore, it is necessary for India to assess overall strategic situation of the region, Western sanctions against Iran and Pakistan’s response. India and Iran must move forward with the aim of regional peace, stability and prosperity. Both these countries must work together with other regional countries and create a new silk road for long term prosperity of the region, only then we can ensure long term peace and stability in Afghanistan.