strategic analysis of global bus rapid transit systems market
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Strategic Analysis of Global Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market
Market to Double Through Growth in Demand From New Regions and Advanced BRT Solutions
Global
NA5E-18
March 2012
2 N5AE-18
Bharani Lakshminarasimhan Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation
+91 44 66814122
bharanil@frost.com
Ryan Carmichael Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation
+1.416.490.1274
ryan.carmichael@frost.com
Research Team
Analyst
Program Director
Sandeep Kar Global Director, Automotive & Transportation
+1.416.490.7796
sandeep.kar@frost.com
Sarwant Singh Partner, Automotive & Transportation
+44 207 915 7843
sarwant.singh@frost.com
Strategic Review Committee Leader
Analyst
3 N5AE-18
Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 6
Research Methodology, Geographical Scope and Partial List of Companies Interviewed 20
BRT Systems Market – Overview and Definition 26
Bus Rapid Transit Systems – Global Best Practices Comparative Analysis 30
a. BRT Standard 32
b. BRT Bus Standard 33
c. BRT Bus Powertrain Standard 34
d. Global BRT Systems-Hot Spot Analysis 35
e. Comparative Analysis of Top 3 BRTs 37
f. Case Study-Guangzhou BRT 39
Market & Technology Dynamics for BRT systems 41
a. Market Drivers and Restraints 42
b. Product Life Cycle Analysis of BRT Systems 47
c. Global BRT Vehicle Market—Value Chain Analysis 50
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Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Total Market Measurements 51
a. Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast 52
b. Global BRT Vehicle Powertrain Penetration Forecast 54
c. Global BRT Vehicle – Bus Length Configuration Forecast 56
d. Global BRT Vehicle OEM Unit Shipments Forecast- Region Wise 57
Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market– Regional Profiles 59
a. Latin America 60
b. China 68
c. India 75
d. Europe 84
e. North America 92
f. Rest of World 99
BRT Systems – Need Evaluation and Analysis 108
a. Mega Trends Influencing the BRT Market 109
b. Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis 111
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Contents
Section Slide Numbers
BRT systems – Design, Development and Implementation process 114
a. BRT Evolution 115
b. BRT System Design and Implementation 116
c. Service Design 118
d. Operational Model 119
e. BRT Cost Structure 120
f. BRT Financing Models 121
g. Bus OEMs Value Proposition in BRT 122
h. Integrated Mobility 123
BRT Vehicle Analysis 125
Strategic Recommendations and Conclusion 133
a. Key Research Findings 134
b. Key Conclusions and Future Outlook 135
Appendix 137
7 N5AE-18
Executive Summary—Key Findings
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Globally Over 100 BRT Lines are currently operational or under various stages of
implementation. This translates into enormous market potential for new vehicle
purchase and replacement demand as well. 1
2 The global BRT vehicle market is set to reach over 7800 units by 2018. Latin America
and China alone to account for over 58 per cent of the total market.
3 Volvo to retain global leadership with over 30 per cent global market share by 2018.
Daimler emerging top competitor with 19 per cent share by 2018.
4 Diesel to remain dominant powertrain system over the forecast period. Alternative
fuel powertrain penetration is set to triple and reach over 20 per cent by 2018.
5 By 2018 18-24m, low-floor, telematics enabled buses to feature in most BRT lines
across the world.
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Executive Summary—BRT Evolution : Informal Services to Full BRT – Bus Rapid Transit is
Now Increasingly Being Viewed as a Viable and Effective Mode of Mass Transit in Urban Centers
in Both Developed and Developing World
• Non Regulated
Operators
• Taxi Like
Services
• Segregated
Bus Ways
• On-Board
fare
collection
• Standard
vehicles and
stations
• Segregated
bus ways
• Pre-board fare
collection and
verification
• Higher Quality
Stations
• Clean vehicle
Technology
• Open BRT
system with no
cap on
operators
• Integrated Routes (Feeder routes connecting the central trunk line)
• Closed, high quality Stations
• Flexible frequencies
• Variable services(All Stop and Express)
Informal
Services
Conventional
Services
Busways
BRT Lite
Full BRT
• On-Board Fare
Collection
• Poor Customer
Service
• Often
subsidized
operations
Evolution of BRT Services
Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Evolution (Global), 2011
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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Executive Summary—Global BRT Systems Hot Spot Analysis: Globally
Over 100 BRT Lines are Currently Operational or Under Different Stages of Implementation
New BRT systems in the
planning phase
Existing BRT with expansion
plans
Latin America
North America China-India
Global BRT Systems Market : Hot Spot Analysis (Global), 2011-2018
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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Executive Summary—Voice of Customer Research for Overall Public
Experience in Relation to Transport Mode
Strong Potential for BRTs in Many Major Urban Centers in Asia and Europe
2 New York
1 Total
7 Rio de Janeiro
3 Seattle
4 Los Angeles
5 San Francisco
6 Mexico City
8 Copenhagen
10 Paris
11 Frankfurt
12 Moscow
13 Dubai
9 London
14 Cairo
15 Johannesburg
16 Beijing
17 Shanghai
18 Seoul
19 Tokyo
20 New Delhi
21 Kuala Lumpur
22 Singapore
23 Jakarta
24 Sydney JEI for car focused cities is higher than public transport focused cities
Journey Experience Index (JEI) tends to be higher among cities with a higher
share of individual transport
1 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23 24
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Share Public Transport
Sh
are
In
div
idu
al T
ran
sp
ort
Car
focused
cities
Public transport
focused cities
n=7,185; Q7: Mode of transport used, Q34: Indexed (Bubble Size = JEI (Journey Experience Index))
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Executive Summary—Voice of Customer Research For BRT as a Solution
Overcrowding, Traffic and Speed Cited as 3 Most Frustrating Aspects of Public
Transit
Reasons for Frustration
Individual Transport
31% 24% 29% 37%
12%13% 11%
13%11%
12% 9%
11%14%
14% 14%
13%
32% 37% 37%26%
Total Americas EMEA APAC
Overcrowding Traffic Speed Other No frustrations
Reasons for Frustration
Public Transport
4%3%
4%
4%11%
9%10%
12%
53%65% 56%
42%
32%22% 30%
42%
Total Americas EMEA APAC
Traffic Speed Other No frustrations
Concerns over overcrowding, traffic and speed in urban transportation could be overcome by an efficient BRT system.
1 out of 2 individual and 2 of 3 public transport users are frustrated with the traffic situation. But differences exist by region:
In Americas a significant lower individual transport frustration level can be seen, whereas in APAC the difference between
the two modes is the smallest.
Frustration by mode is for both primarily caused by one reason: traffic congestions in individual and overcrowding in public
transport
Q28: What,, if anything, was the most frustrating or annoying part of this trip?
12 N5AE-18
0
1
2
3
4
5
Passenger Information System
[5], [4.5], [2]
Environmental Footprint
[5], [4], [2]
Route Flexibility
[1], [4], [5]
Efficiency - [5], [4.5], [3]
Capital Expenditure
[1], [4.5], [5]
Network (Distance)
[2], [4], [5]
Flexible Frequency
[5], [5], [2]
Journey experience
[5], [4.5], [2] Off Vehicle Fare Collection
[5], [4.5], [2]
Light Rail BRT Conventional Bus
Ratings : [Light Rail], [BRT], [Conventional Bus]
Total Ratings:
Light Rail – 34
BRT – 39 Conventional Bus - 29
Executive Summary—Comparison with Other Transit Solutions
BRT Emerging as a Sustainable Compared to Light Rail and Conventional Bus
Global BRT Systems Market : Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis(Global), 2011
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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Urban
Rail
BRT Conventional
Bus Systems
Car Sharing
Bike Sharing
Bicycle
Walking
Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility The 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd Capacity that BRT provides Can Bridge the Gap Between High
Capacity Upstream Urban Rail Systems and Low Capacity Downstream Transportation Options
• Subways and heavy metro systems are
available in city centers in urban areas.
• Operating capacities of 70,000-120,000
pphpd.
• Conventional buses can handle capacities in the range of 3,000
to 5,000 pphpd.
• Car sharing, bike sharing and other non-motorized transportation
options emerge critical in delivering the last mile connectivity.
Ideal capacity of 10,000-
15,000 pphpd to bridge the
gap.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis Passenger Per Hour Per Direction (pphpd)
Urban
Transportation
Puzzle
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0
200
400
600
2011 2018
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2011 2018
0
200
400
600
800
2011 2018
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2011 2018
0
500
1000
1500
2011 2018
0
500
1000
1500
2011 2018
North America
Europe
Latin America
India
China
Rest of World
Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipment Forecast- Region Wise (Global), 2011 and 2018
Executive Summary—Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast Latin America and China Alone Absorbed Over 3 Thousand BRT Vehicles in 2011; Indian,
North American and European Markets Growing at a Fast Pace
Un
it S
hip
me
nts
Base Year, End Year
CAGR
17 %
CAGR
17.8 %
CAGR
5.8 %
CAGR
22.1 %
CAGR
6.9 %
CAGR
5.6 %
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipments- Powertrain Mix (Global), 2011 and 2018
Executive Summary—Global BRT Powertrain Penetration Forecast Diesel to Remain Dominant Propulsion Fuel Over the Forecast Period Albeit With Shrinking
Demand as Alternative Fuel Powered BRTs Gain Rapid Proliferation
2018
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
LatinAmerica
NorthAmerica
Europe China India Rest ofWorld
Altenate Fuel Diesel
2011
2018 Regional Shares
4,341
7,874
93.2 %
79.6 %
20.4 %
6.8 %
14.9 %
85.1 %
59.5 %
40.5 % 64.7 %
74.0 % 35.3 %
26.0 %
13.0 %
87.0 % 92.0%
8.0 %
• Market for advanced powertarin technologies is expected to increase across the forecast period as
concerns over energy security and climate change emerge as key driving factors.
• North America, Europe and China emergeing as key growth markets for advanced powertrain
technologies. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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BRT Applicability
Direct Service Trunk Service
Length Configuration
12 m
18 m
24 m
BRT Bus Built Analysis-Length Configuration: Mapping Bus Configurations with
Service Design is Critical; Long Articulated Buses Have Greater Acceptance in Trunk Service
Compared to Direct Service
High Low
Standard 12m
Articulated
Bi-articulated
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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BRT Standard: Segregated Bus Ways with Level Boarding Stations Considered Best Fit for
Efficient BRT Operations; Migration of Operation Model in China and India Towards Closed
System Compelling Bus OEMs to Focus on Product Competitiveness
Tru
nk
an
d
Feed
er
Serv
ice
Dir
ec
t S
erv
ice
Clo
se
d
Op
era
tio
n
Op
en
Op
era
tio
ns
Pu
bli
c
Op
era
tio
ns
Seg
reg
ate
d
Part
iall
y S
eg
reg
ate
d
Le
ve
l B
oa
rdin
g
No
n L
eve
l B
oa
rdin
g
Station Interface Bus ways Operational Model Service Design
Co
mb
ina
tio
n
Strong Trend Towards 2018 Moderate Trend Towards 2018
Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Standard Overview (Global), 2011-2018
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
18 N5AE-18
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19 N5AE-18
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