statistics of utility-scale power generation in south
Post on 27-Nov-2021
2 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Statistics of utility-scale power generation in
South Africa in 2020
CSIR Energy Centrev2.0
March 2021
Joanne CALITZ
Dr Jarrad WRIGHT
2
We want to crowd-fund research in energy!
OR
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/GWQYWYS
SCAN HERE TO RESPOND CLICK/TAP HERE TO RESPOND
Please take 5 minutes out of your day to respond to our quick survey on crowd-funding research questions that we would like to explore as the CSIR Energy Centre
3
Summary of 2020 statistics:
Coal still dominates the South African energy mix whilst variable renewables
surpassed nuclear energy contribution in 2020 by some margin
By end 2020 – South Africa had 51.6 GW of wholesale/public nominal capacity
– Coal nominal capacity is 37.9 GW
– Nuclear nominal capacity is 1.9 GW
– Diesel (OCGT) nominal capacity is 3.4 GW
– Hydro nominal capacity is 0.6 GW hydro and pumped storage is 2.7 GW
– Wind nominal capacity is 2.5 GW
– Solar PV nominal capacity is 2.0 GW
– CSP nominal capacity is 0.5 GW
– 723 MW of coal, 415 MW of wind and 558 MW of solar PV became operational during 2020
The electricity mix is still dominated by coal-fired power generation which contributed 83.5% to system
demand in 2020
– Coal energy contributed 83.5% (184.4 TWh)
– Nuclear energy contributed 5.2% (11.5 TWh)
– Renewable energy contributed 10.5% (23.1 TWh)
– Variable renewable energy contributed 5.6% (12.4 TWh)
– The remaining 0.9% came from diesel (1.9 TWh)
Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa; OCGT – Open-Cycle Gas Turbine; CSP – Concentrating Solar PowerSources: CSIR Analysis; Eskom
4
Summary of 2020 statistics:
System demand reduced notably in 2020 due to Covid-19 lockdown and
resulting reduced economic activity
In 2020, system demand reduced by 11.8 TWh relative 2019 (-5.1%) whilst residual demand reduced by
12.7 TWh (-5.7%) relative to pre-lockdown forecasts
– Peak system demand in 2020 was 34.1 GW (vs 2019 which was 34.5 GW)
– Reduced system demand in 2020 vs 2019 was met mostly by reduced coal (-10.4 TWh) and nuclear
(-2.1 TWh) whilst others increased production (particularly solar PV and pumped storage)
– Weekly residual demand under initial lockdown (March 2020) saw weekly energy demand plummet by
over 20% for 4 weeks (biggest reduction of 24.5%)
Over the past 10 years, South African system demand has dropped by 7.8% (mostly seen in 2020) but
even without the effects of 2020, system demand has been on a downward trend
– For the period 2010-2020, system demand has reduced from 254 TWh to 234 TWh (-0.8% per year)
– Excluding 2020 (2010-2019), reduction from 254 TWh to 245 TWh (-0.4% per year)
Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa; OCGT – Open-Cycle Gas Turbine; CSP – Concentrating Solar PowerSources: CSIR Analysis; Eskom
5
Summary of 2020 statistics:
5.6% of system load was supplied by wind, solar PV & CSP in RSA
By end 2020- total wind, solar PV and CSP production was 12.4 TWh (5.6% of SA system load)
– Maximum daily total energy from solar PV, wind & CSP combined was 59 GWh (1 Dec 2020)
– Wind power achieved a maximum peak power production of 2 114 MW (19h00-20h00, 1 Dec 2020)
– Solar PV power reached a maximum peak power production of 1 929 MW (12h00-13h00, 25 Nov 2020)
– CSP power reached a maximum peak power production of 505 MW (12h00-13h00, 25 Nov 2020)
– Maximum instantaneous contribution of wind, solar PV & CSP was 16.0% (15h00-16h00, 27 Dec 2020)
– Maximum instantaneous power contribution of wind alone was 9.6% (05h00-06h00, 12 Apr 2020)
– Maximum instantaneous power contribution of solar PV alone was 7.9% (12h00-13h00, 26 Dec 2020)
– Maximum instantaneous power contribution of CSP alone was 2.3% (16h00-17h00, 25 Dec 2020)
By end 2020 - monthly wind, solar PV and CSP production combined varied between 784-1161 GWh
– Monthly wind production from Jan to Dec 2020 varied between 404-674 GWh
– Monthly solar PV production from Jan to Dec 2020 varied between 262-477 GWh
– Monthly CSP production from Jan to Dec 2020 varied between 74-198 GWh
Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa; OCGT – Open-Cycle Gas Turbine; CSP – Concentrating Solar PowerSources: CSIR Analysis; Eskom
6
Summary of 2020 statistics:
VRE made a notable energy contribution to the energy mix in 2020 whilst
residual demand exhibiting slight increasing need for flexible capacity
In 2020, the VRE fleet of 5.0 GW (wind, solar PV, CSP) reduced peak demand slightly but moreimportantly high demand hours by ~70%
– VRE fleet reduced peak demand by ~1.4 GW
– VRE fleet also reduced high-demand hours (hours with >30 GW system demand) from 492 hours to151 hours (~341 hours less, -70%)
Flexibility needs are not yet significantly increased with the existing VRE fleet in 2020
– The minimum system demand was 14.9 GW whilst residual demand minimum was 13.8 GW
– System demand & residual demand was above 20.5 GW and 19.5 GW respectively for 90% of 2020
– The residual system demand profile indicates an increasing need for flexible peaking type capacity(+6%), notably less mid-merit type capacity (-12%) and slightly less base-supply type capacity (-4%)
– 1-hourly maximum system demand gradient of 3 498 MW occurred on 23 Jan 2020 and minimumgradient of -3 000 MW on 23 Jul 2020
– 1-hourly maximum residual demand gradient of 3 514 MW occurred on 17 Feb 2020 and minimumgradient of -2 930 MW on 17 Aug 2020
– 3-hourly maximum system demand gradient of 7 094 MW occurred on 16 Jun 2020 and minimumgradient of -7 925 MW on 1 Sep 2020
– 3-hourly maximum residual demand gradient of 7 053 MW occurred on 25 Jul 2020 and minimumgradient of -7 672 MW on 1 Sep 2020
NOTES: Residual demand = System demand less variable renewable energy (solar PV, CSP and wind).VRE – Variable Renewable Energy.Peaking type capacity is considered as capacity that would operate for <1000 hrs/yr.Mid-merit type capacity is considered as capacity that would operate for >1000 hrs/yr and <6000 hrs/yr.Base-supply type capacity is considered as capacity that would operate >6000 hrs/yr.
7
Summary of 2020 statistics:
2020 saw 859 hours of loadshedding and seemingly the most intense yet (upper
limit 1798 GWh) whilst actually achieved was 1269 GWh
In 2020, loadshedding occurred for 859 hours of the year (9.8%) with an upper limit of 1798 GWh relative
to actually achieved energy shed of 1269 GWh
– Intensive loadshedding before Covid-19 related lockdown (63% of 2020 loadshedding)
– Loadshedding dominated by Stage 2 type loadshedding with smaller contributions from other stages
– Previous CSIR publications considered available public data and an upper limit to loadshedding
(based on announcements and loadshedding stages)
– Available data in 2020 has made more accurate findings possible – 1798 GWh would be the upper
limit based on announcements and stages but actually achieved loadshedding was 1269 GWh
Eskom fleet EAF is on a declining trend and drove loadshedding events in 2020
– Eskom fleet annual average EAF of 65% (relative to 2019 of 66.9% and 2018 of 71.9%)
– EAF comprised of planned maintenance at 11.2% (PCLF), unplanned outages at 20.9% (UCLF) &
other outages at 2.8% (OCLF)
– The best hourly EAF of 78.8% was achieved on 10 Jun 2020 and worst of 51.7% on 31 Dec 2020
NOTES: EAF - Energy Availability Factor; PCLF - Planned capability Loss Factor; UCLF – Unplanned Capability Loss Factor; OCLF – Other Capability Loss Factor; EAF = 100%-PCLF-UCLF-OCLF
Other power system statistics7
Actual load shedding in 20206
Hourly electricity production (2020)5
Daily electricity production (2020)4
Weekly electricity production (2020)3
Monthly electricity production (2020)2
Overview actual electricity production (2020)1
Agenda
9
Other power system statistics7
Actual load shedding in 20206
Hourly electricity production (2020)5
Daily electricity production (2020)4
Weekly electricity production (2020)3
Monthly electricity production (2020)2
Overview actual electricity production (2020)1
Agenda
10
Equivalent wholesale South African production and demand as
measured & published by Eskom
Eskom(Dx2)
Eskom1
(Gx)Imports ExportsIPPs1
(Gx)
EG = Embedded Generation; DG = Distributed Generation; Gx = Generation; Tx = Transmission; Dx = Distribution; Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS); NOTES: Items in light faded gray are NOT included in statistics presented in this publication.1 Power generated less power station load (auxillaries); Minus pumping load (Eskom owned pumped storage); 2 Transmission/distribution
networks incur losses before delivery to customers
1 1 Production1
2 Imports
3 Exports
32
Other(Gx)
IOS(DSR)
Munics.(Dx2)
Other(Gx)
ILS(DSR)
Largecustomers(Com/Ind/Min)
DSR4
4 4
EG/DG(Gx)Customers
(Dom/Com/Ind/Min)
Eskom(Tx2)
1EG/DG
(Gx)Customers(Dom/Com/Agri
Ind/Min)
1
MLR(DSR) 4
MLR(DSR) 4
1 1
11
From Jan-Dec 2020, 221 TWh of net electricity was produced in SAActuals captured in wholesale market for Jan-Dec 2020 (i.e. without self-consumption of embedded plants)
Notes: “Net Sent Out“ = Total domestic generation (Sent Out) minus pumping load (not shown seperately); Demand not served is exlcuded from graph = Interruptible load supply (ILS) + manual load reduction (MLR)Sources: Eskom; Statistics South Africa for imports and exports
220.6
System Load (domestic and export load)
10.0
Annualelectricity
in TWh
Net Sent Out Imports Exports Available for distribution
in RSA
230.6
13.7
207
12
In 2020, coal dominated the energy mix at 184 TWh of the 221 TWh of
total system load whilst PV, wind and CSP contributed 12.4 TWh (5.6%)Actuals captured in wholesale market for Jan-Dec 2020 (i.e. without self-consumption of embedded plants)
Diesel + Gas
Other
220.6
Solar PV CSP Pump load
Hydro DSR
0.8(0.3%)
System Load
(domestic & export
load)
4.1(1.8%)
Wind
Annualelectricity
in TWh0.1
(0.0%)
ImportsPumped Storage
Coal Nuclear
184.4(81.6%)
11.5(5.1%)
1.9(0.8%) -6.9
(-3.0%)
9.9(4.4%)
6.6(2.9%)
1.6(0.7%)
1.4(0.6%)5.1
(2.3%)
Notes: Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus lower than actual wind and solar PV generation. PS = pumped storageDemand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom
13
Nominal capacity in 2020Actual nominal installed capacity as at 31 Dec 2020 (excluding embedded generation capacity
and private capacity)
51 595
30 000
0
50 000
10 000
40 000
20 000
60 000
NominalCapacity in MW
OtherSolar PV CSP
2 495(4.8%)
TotalPumped Storage
HydroDiesel + Gas
Coal Nuclear
37 945(73.5%)
1 860(3.6%)
3 409(6.6%)
500(1.0%)
600(1.2%)
2 732(5.3%)
2 032(3.9%)
22(0.0%)
Wind
Notes: RE = Renewable Energy; Total nominal installed capacity = Eskom capacity + IPPs; Embedded generation and municipal-owned capacity excludedSources: Eskom
14
257560
1 075
300 400 500 500210
960
965
1 460
2 080 2 080 2 0802 495
1 474
1 474 1 474 1 474
2 032
2017
5 027
2013
467
20152014
1 520
2018
2 040
3 134
3 854 3 954
200
2016 2019 2020
4 054
+1 053
+520
+1 094
+720 +100 +100
+973
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Supply Sources
Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Solar PV capacity = capacity at point of common coupling. Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm. Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office
From 1 Nov 2013 to 31 Dec 2020, 2 495 MW of wind, 2 032 MW of large-
scale solar PV and 500 MW of CSP became operational in RSA
Capacity operational [MW]
15
Annual energy produced [TWh]
1.10.05
2013
3.3
0.01
1.1
2015
1.0
2014 2018
2.2
2.5
2.6
1.6
3.7
0.5
11.510.8
2016 2020
3.3
5.0
0.7
2017
3.3
6.56.6
1.6
9.0
2019
0.1
4.7
6.9
12.4
6.6
4.1
2.2
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Notes: Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). CSP energy measured from date when more than two CSP plant were commissioned. Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus lower than actual wind and solar PV generation
Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office
In 2020 - 12.4 TWh of wind, solar PV & CSP energy produced in RSA
Supply Sources
16
Production dropped by 4.3% (2010-2019) and 8.8% (2010-2020) resulting
in annual average reductions of -0.5% (2010-2019) and -0.9% (2010-2020)Historical annual electricity production per supply source in TWh
240
140
220
280
180
60
80
0
100
200
40
260
20
120
160
2019 20202018
227
2015 20172016
241
201420132011
238
2010 2021
Annual electricity production in TWh
2012
239249 250
244 241 240 241 239-8.8%
0.1% -2.4%-1.2% 0.0% -0.7% -0.5% 0.7% 0.7% -1.1% -4.8%
DSR
CSP
Wind
Solar PV
Other
Pumped storage
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Nuclear
Supply Sources
NOTES: Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS). DSR prior to 2020 has been estimated by the CSIRSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
17
TransmissionNetwork
Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Simplified illustration of technology grid interconnections
Illustration: Calculation of average capacity factor of operational power
plant categories in RSA
Rated Capacity Substation Average Capacity Factor (CF)
P = Contracted Capacity measured at point of common coupling, in kW
CF = σ𝑡=1𝑛 𝐸𝑡
σ𝑡=1𝑛 𝑃𝑡𝑛
Where:P = Contracted Capacity, in kWE = Energy production, in kWht = Time periodn = Number of time periods
Rated Capacity, C in kW
= 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 (𝑘𝑊ℎ)
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 (𝑘𝑊)
DC AC
AC
AC
AC
18 Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). Sources: Eskom
Annual capacity factors per supply source in South Africa in 2020
WindDiesel & Gas
2020Annual Capacity Factors %
Nuclear HydroCoal Pumped Storage
CSP Solar PV
70.5
56.2
6.4
14.5
21.4
37.0 35.2
26.4
19 Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). Sources: Eskom
Annual capacity factors per supply source in South Africa in 2019
Solar PVHydro
2019Annual Capacity Factors %
Pumped Storage
Nuclear Diesel & Gas
25.7
Coal
83.0
CSP Wind
59.8
20.1
7.212.9
36.5 36.4
20
19.025.9 26.4 25.5 25.4 25.7 25.7 26.4
2013 2014 2015 20192016 20182017 2020
19.0
31.7 32.4 34.5 35.7 35.5 36.4 35.4
20152013 2014 2016 2017 20192018 2020
Wind
NOTES: Historical capacity factors for other technologies not available at the time of publication; Capacity operational as per actual start of operation (can differ from REIPPP contracted date), CSP - only measured from date when more than two CSP plants commissioned. Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus capacity factor is lower than actual wind and solar PV available.Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office
In 2020, the average annual capacity factor of the solar PV, wind & CSP
fleet was 26%, 35% and 37% respectively
Average Capacity Factor
Solar PV
31.2 31.738.1 36.1 37.0
2015 2018 202020172013 2014 2016 2019
CSP
Supply Sources
21 Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW); Percentages shown are changes within the category between years. Sources: Eskom
Significantly lower production from coal in 2020 relative to 2019 by
10.4 TWh (-5%) - Covid-19 lockdown (reduced demand)Difference in annual electricity production 2020 vs 2019
0
-6 000
-20 000
2 000
6 000
4 000
-18 000
-16 000
-12 000
-14 000
-8 000
-4 000
-10 000
-2 000
-11 812(-5%)
320(7%)
82(12%)
-10 438(-5%)
Diesel & Gas
89(1%)
Difference, 2020 vs 2019in GWh
System demand
Nuclear Coal Hydro
815(25%)
Pumped Storage
Imports DSRCSP Wind Solar PV
-2 071(-15%)
-203(-10%)
69(4%)
1(0%)
95(7%)
2020 vs 2019
22 Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW); Percentages shown are changes within the category between years. Sources: Eskom; DSR estimated
Similar reduction in coal production from 2018 to 2019 (-8.5 TWh) but
largely driven by lower EAF – drives increased diesel usage and DSRDifference in annual electricity production 2019 vs 2018
-10 000
-18 000
-16 000
-20 000
-14 000
2 000
6 000
-12 000
-8 000
4 000
-6 000
0
-4 000
-2 000 -401(-37%)
Diesel & Gas
CSP
1 256(146%)
Nuclear
526(51%)
System demand
Coal Hydro Pumped Storage
Imports Wind Solar PV DSR
-4 027(-2%)
3 039(29%)
-8 514(-4%)
265(6%)
-71(-1%)
158(2%)
43(1%)
1 160(604%)
Difference, 2019 vs 2018in GWh
2019 vs 2018
23 Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW); Percentages shown are changes within the category between years. Sources: Eskom; DSR estimated
Relative to 2018, 2020 saw combined effects of dramatically lower EAF &
demand, large reduction in coal (-18.9 TWh) but increase in diesel & DSRDifference in annual electricity production 2020 vs 2018
-12 000
-14 000
0
4 000
2 000
-20 000
-18 000
-8 000
6 000
-4 000
-16 000
-10 000
-6 000
-2 000
-18 952(-9%)
-15 839(-7%)
Difference, 2020 vs 2018in GWh
Solar PVSystem demand
WindCSPNuclear Coal
858(26%)
18(0%)
Diesel & Gas
Hydro Pumped Storage
Imports DSR
968(9%)
1 054(123%)
-319(-30%)
595(58%)
159(2%)
1 235(643%)
585(13%)
2020 vs 2018
24
Generation share from primary supply sources in 2010, 2015 and 2020
in South Africa – marginal shifts in energy mix over past 10 years
83.5%
5.2% 0.9%
0.0%
0.3%
1.9%
3.0%0.7%
4.5%
85.4%
4.6%2.2%
0.3%
Other
1.1%
0.9%5.4%
0.0%
89.3%
5.2%4.9%
0.1%0.0%
0.5%
Other
2010 2015 2020
Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW); Imports dominated by hydro from Cahora-Bassa (Mozambique)Sources: Eskom
247 235 221TWh TWh TWh
Wind
Hydro
Diesel + Gas ImportsCoal
Nuclear Solar PVOther
CSP
25
Annual peak demand has been declining over the last 10 yearsHistorical annual peak demand in GW
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
35
15
0
5
10
20
25
30
40
45
34.5
RSA Peak Demand in GW
36.236.7 36.7 36.0 35.4 34.5 34.9 35.8 35.334.2
Notes: Includes Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS). Sources: Eskom
26
0
20
25
5
10
15
30
35
8
Power in GW
0 20102 4 6 12 14 16 18 22 24Hour
0
5
20
10
15
25
35
30
12 220
Power in GW
2 4 6 8 10 14 16 18 20 24Hour
TotalGeneration
Supply Sources
IPPs: Independent Power Producers; Pumping load: demand from pumped storage scheme when operated in pumping modeSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Illustrative day explaining terminologies usedHourly South African supply structure for a random day
SystemLoad
System Load
Residual Load
Pumpingload
Wind
CSP
Solar PV
ResidualLoad
Supply Sources
= domestic generation (Eskom + IPPs) + imported generation – pumping load= domestic customer load without pumping load (also referred to as simply "domestic load”) + export load
= System Load – wind – solar PV – CSP
SystemLoad
Total Generation = domestic generation (Eskom + IPPs) + imported generation
27
0
5
20
15
10
30
25
35
1395 20
Power in GW
10 32 4 6 147 8 10 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23
DSR
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Other
Diesel
Coal
Nuclear
Imports
Supply Sources
Note: Hourly production above system load = pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Maximum daily wind, solar PV & CSP energy of 59 GWh on 1 Dec 2020Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 1 December 2020 (Tuesday)
Maximum daily wind, solar PV & CSP
production was 59 GWh SystemLoad
28
35
0
5
30
15
10
20
25
10 13 222 5 8
Power in GW
0 1 3 4 6 197 9 2311 12 14 15 16 17 18 20 21
Wind
DSR
CSP
Pumped Storage
Solar PV
Hydro
Diesel
Coal
Nuclear
Other
Imports
Note: Hourly production above system load = pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SystemLoad
Maximum daily solar PV energy of 18 GWh achieved on 25 Nov 2020Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 25 November 2020 (Wednesday)
Maximum daily solar PV production was 18 GWh
Supply Sources
29
0
25
30
15
5
10
20
35
191 213 1120 4 5 166 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 17 18 20 22 23
Power in GW
Wind
DSR
CSP
Solar PV
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel
Coal
Nuclear
Imports
Other
Note: Hourly production above system load = pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SystemLoad
Maximum daily wind energy of 41 GWh was achieved on 13 July 2020Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 13 July 2020 (Monday)
Maximum daily wind production was 41 GWh
Supply Sources
30
25
0
5
20
15
10
30
35
1153 19 22
Power in GW
0 1 2 4 1716126 148 9 10 13 15 18 20 21 237
Solar PV
DSR
Pumped Storage
Wind
CSP
Nuclear
Hydro
Diesel
Coal
Imports
Other
Note: Hourly production above system load = pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SystemLoad
Maximum daily CSP energy of 8 GWh achieved on 25 Dec 2020Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 25 December 2020 (Friday)
Maximum daily CSP production was 8 GWh
Supply Sources
31
20
10
5
25
0
30
15
35
154 187 11 16
Power in GW
0 101 142 3 5 6 8 9 12 2313 17 19 20 21 22
CSP
DSR
Pumped Storage
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Diesel
Coal
Nuclear
Imports
Other
Note: Hourly production above system load = pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SystemLoad
Lowest daily wind, solar PV & CSP production
was 15 GWh
Lowest combined wind, solar PV & CSP energy of 15 GWh on 24 Apr ‘20Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 24 April 2020 (Friday)
Supply Sources
32
5
0
10
15
25
30
20
35
43 232 5 20
Power in GW
80 156 7 119 2210 1712 13 1914 16 18 211
DSR
Wind
Solar PV
Other
Coal
CSP
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel
Nuclear
Imports
Note: Hourly production above system load = pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SystemLoad
Maximum inst. solar PV, wind & CSP power of 16% on 27 Dec 2020Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 27 December 2020 (Sunday)
Max instantaneous wind, solar PV & CSP of
16%
Supply Sources
Other power system statistics7
Actual load shedding in 20206
Hourly electricity production (2020)5
Daily electricity production (2020)4
Weekly electricity production (2020)3
Monthly electricity production (2020)2
Overview actual electricity production (2020)1
Agenda
34
2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 1882 463 2 472
1 474 1 549 1 699 1 774 1 774 1 774 1 814 1 814 1 957 1 9572 032 2 032
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Capacity operational
in 2020 [MW]
(end of month)
4 301
Jan
4 376
5 017
MarFeb
4 416
Apr May
4 667
Jul
4 076
Aug
4 376
Sep Oct DecNov
4 1514 376 4 416 4 559
5 026
22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Jun
500 500 500 500 500 500500 500 500 500 500500
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
RE Other
Supply Sources
Notes: Capacity operational as per actual start of operation (can differ from REIPPP contracted date), CSP - only measured from date when more than two CSP plants commissioned. Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). RE = renewable energySources: Eskom
In 2020: 415 MW of wind & 558 MW of solar PV was added to the gridTotal monthly installed capacity of utility-scale solar PV, wind and CSP in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020
35
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
3 409
May
1 860
Capacity operational
in 2020 [MW]
(end of month)
2 732
46 546
2 732
Apr
6002 732
37 316
2 732600
3 409600
37 31637 316
600
1 860
Feb
2 732
3 409
37 316
1 860
3 409
Mar
6003 409
2 732
37 316
1 860
45 826
37 225
2 732600
3 409
1 860
37 225
1 860
Jun
37 225
1 860
2 732600
2 732
3 409
Jul
37 225
1 860
6003 409
Sep
1 860
Aug
600
1 860
37 225
3 409
1 860
Oct
2 732600
3 409
Jan
37 945
1 860
Nov
2 732600
3 409
37 945
Dec
6002 732
3 409
45 917 45 917 45 917 45 917 45 826 45 826 45 826 45 826 46 54645 917
+720
Diesel (Incl. IPP)
PS
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Supply Sources
Notes: RE = Renewable Energy; Kusile unit 2 achieved commercial operation on 29 October 2020Sources: Eskom
In 2020: 720 MW of coal (Kusile) was added to the grid over and above
the additional RE capacityTotal monthly installed capacity of utility-scale generation capacity in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020
36
28.6 25.7 27.123.5 23.0 20.5 22.3 25.6 28.1 28.6 31.8 31.5
26.4
MayMarJan JunFeb Apr AugJul Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave.(year)
Solar PV
Notes: Capacity operational as per actual start of operation (can differ from REIPPP contracted date). Wind includes Sere wind farm. Sources: Eskom
Average monthly capacity factors for solar PV, wind and CSPAverage monthly capacity factors of solar PV, wind and CSP in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020
Average MonthlyCapacity Factor [%]
38.3 35.730.3 29.5 26.1
37.0 37.5 40.735.2 36.2 39.5 36.7 35.2
Jan Feb Mar JulApr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave.(year)
Wind
52.0
35.0 30.1 27.8 28.1 23.1 19.8
33.643.8 43.2
55.1 52.6
37.0
JunJan Feb JulMar OctApr May Aug Sep Nov Dec Ave.(year)
CSP
2472 MW
2032 MW
Capacity operational
(31 Dec)
500 MW
Supply Sources
37
13.1 7.4 12.8 1.4 1.9 4.5 9.6 9.1 4.7 1.1 10.7 6.4
Jul OctFebJan Mar MayApr Jun Aug NovSep Dec Ave.(year)
0.0
Diesel (incl. IPP)
Sources: Eskom
Average monthly capacity factors for thermal plantsAverage monthly capacity factors of thermal capacity in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020
Average MonthlyCapacity Factor [%]
55.8 57.2 55.4 45.1 55.0 61.1 60.4 58.9 59.3 59.2 55.2 51.5 56.2
AugJan JulAprFeb Mar May Jun Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave. (year)
Coal
85.898.9
85.2
51.5 47.6 47.467.6 58.0 49.0 60.8
98.6 96.070.5
SepJunMay DecJan Feb Mar Apr AugJul Oct Nov Ave.(year)
Nuclear
37945 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
Supply Sources
Capacity operational
(31 Dec)
38
13.317.1
13.8
21.2 19.7
9.7 9.5 10.9 13.4 16.2 14.4 14.3 14.5
JulJan Feb AugAprMar May Jun Sep Ave.(year)
Oct Nov Dec
Hydro
Sources: Eskom
Average monthly capacity factors for hydro and pumped storage plantsAverage monthly capacity factors of hydro & pumped storage in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020
Average MonthlyCapacity Factor [%]
19.8 19.2 21.825.2 23.7 24.5 22.8 22.1 19.5 21.0
17.8 18.7 21.3
JulJunJan Feb AugMar MayApr Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave.(year)
Pumped Storage
Supply Sources
600 MW
2732 MW
Capacity operational
(31 Dec)
39
Monthly electricity production from all power supply sources (absolute)Actual monthly electricity production for Jan-Dec 2020 from the different supply sources in RSA
2
6
12
4
0
8
14
18
10
20
22
16
19.7 19.3 19.1
Monthly electricity production in TWh
18.218.9
19.6
15.2
18.7
20.3 19.9 19.718.8
DSR
Wind
Solar PV
CSP
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel
Imports
Nuclear
Coal
Other
Notes: Pumping load excluded. Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm.Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Supply Sources
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
40
Monthly electricity production from all power supply sources (share)Actual monthly electricity production for Jan-Dec 2020 from the different supply sources in RSA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%20.3
14.9(79%)
19.6
Monthly electricity production in TWh
15.5(79%)
15.4(79%)
12.1(80%)
19.3
15.3(84%)
16.4(85%)
19.9
16.7(82%)
14.5(78%)
16.3(82%)
18.8
15.9(83%)
16.4(83%)
15.1(80%)
19.7 18.9 15.2 18.2 19.1 19.7 18.7
DSR
Solar PV
Wind
Pumped Storage
CSP
Hydro
Diesel
Coal
Imports
Nuclear
Other
Notes: Pumping load excluded. Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm.Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Supply Sources
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
41
4.6%4.8% 4.8%
5.7%5.7%
5.7%5.8%
4.9% 4.8%
6.1%
7.1%7.4%
193 122 112 100 105 83 74 125 158 161 198 196
593
517 470 442 404553 581
629 528 583653 674
313
270 331295 303
262 296
345376
417
454 477
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1 050
1 200
1 350
1 500
1 650
837
951913
Monthly electricity production in GWh
1 099
909
812
1 099
898
1 062
1 161
1 3051 347
Monthly electricity production of SA’s wind, solar PV & CSP fleet Actual monthly production from wind, solar PV and CSP plants in South Africa from Jan-Dec 2020
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SupplySources
Notes: Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm. CSP energy only measured from date when more than two CSP plant were commissioned. Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus lower than actual wind and solar PV generation.Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Capacity operational
(31 Dec)
2472 MW
2032 MW
500 MW
% of totalsystem load
Other power system statistics7
Actual load shedding in 20206
Hourly electricity production (2020)5
Daily electricity production (2020)4
Weekly electricity production (2020)3
Monthly electricity production (2020)2
Overview actual electricity production (2020)1
Agenda
43
Weekly electricity production for all power supply sourcesActual weekly production: conventional fleet, wind, solar PV & CSP (Jan-Dec 2020)
2 000
0
1 000
1 500
4 000
500
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 500
5 000
52
Electricity production in GWh/week
1 4 7 10 13 3116 2219 28
3 445
34 3725 43 46 49
4 607
40
CSP
Wind
Hydro
Other
Solar PV
Pumped Storage
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Nuclear
Supply Sources
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. First week and last week not full weeks. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
44
6.6%
5.9%
6.2%
5.3%
7.4%
5.3%
4.7%
4.8%
6.1%
5.3%5.4%4.7%
4.6%
5.9%
4.8%5.4%
5.9%
5.6%
4.0%
5.8%
5.3%4.2%
5.2%5.5%
6.3%
7.4%
5.1%
5.7%
8.1%
4.6%
3.9%
4.2%
4.9%
3.9%
6.4%
5.4%
3.6%
4.6%
5.8%5.5%
7.6%
4.2%
5.3%
5.8%
6.5%
6.0%
6.6%
7.0%
6.2%
7.0%7.0%7.2%
250
350
0
50
150
100
200
300
400
450
7 31
Electricity productionin GWh/week
1 194 10 13 16 22 25 28 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Weekly electricity production of SA’s wind, solar PV and CSP fleet Actual weekly production from large-scale solar PV, wind & CSP plants under the REIPPPP from Jan-Dec 2020
CSP
Solar PV
Wind
• Maximum wind + solar PV + CSP weekly production of 346 GWh in week 49 (29 Nov – 6 Dec)
• Minimum wind + solar PV + CSP weekly production of 152 GWh in week 23 (31 May - 6 Jun)
2472 MW
2032 MW
Capacityoperational
(31 Dec)
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Supply Sources
500 MW
% of totalsystem load
Other power system statistics7
Actual load shedding in 20206
Hourly electricity production (2020)5
Daily electricity production (2020)4
Weekly electricity production (2020)3
Monthly electricity production (2020)2
Overview actual electricity production (2020)1
Agenda
46
Daily electricity production wind, solar PV & CSP fleet Jan to Dec 2020Actual daily production from large-scale solar PV, wind and CSP plants under the REIPPPP from Jan-Dec 2020
150
100
50
0
700
200
250
400
300
350
450
500
550
600
650
Electricity productionin GWh/day
Pumped Storage
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Nuclear
Other
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
• Maximum daily production of 59 GWh on 2 Dec 2020 (Wednesday)
• Minimum daily production of 15 GWh on 25 Apr 2020 (Saturday)
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE.Wind includes Eskom‘s Sere wind plant. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Capacityoperational
(31 Dec)
2472 MW
2032 MW
500 MW
37945 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
Supply Sources
47
Daily electricity production wind, solar PV & CSP fleet Jan to Dec 2020Actual daily production from large-scale solar PV, wind and CSP plants under the REIPPPP from Jan-Dec 2020
30
65
0
5
10
15
20
25
35
40
45
50
70
55
60
Electricity productionin GWh/day
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
• Maximum daily production of 59 GWh on 2 Dec 2020 (Wednesday)
• Minimum daily production of 15 GWh on 25 Apr 2020 (Saturday)
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE.Wind includes Eskom‘s Sere wind plant. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
2032 MW
500 MW
Capacityoperational
(31 Dec)
SupplySources
48
On 90% of the days from Jan - Dec 2020, solar PV and wind had a daily
energy production of 8 GWh or moreFrequency distribution of daily solar PV, wind and CSP electricity production for January - December 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
GWh/day
CumulativeFrequency
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
GWh/day
CumulativeFrequency
Supply Sources
Capacityoperational
(31 Dec)
2472 MW
2032 MW
500 MW
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
GWh/day
CumulativeFrequency
49
Daily electricity production of between 530-653 GWh in Jan 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for January 2020
• Maximum daily production of 653 GWh on 29 Jan 2020 (Wednesday)
• Minimum daily production of 530 GWh on 1 Jan 2020 (Wednesday - National Holiday)
600
0
100
200
500
300
700
400
800
2341 9 10 12 3115 245 2818
GWh/day
302 3 1786 7 2911 13 14 16 2219 2620 21 25 27
DSR
Hydro
CSP
Solar PV
Pumped Storage
Wind
Diesel & Gas
Other
Coal
Imports
Nuclear
Supply Sources
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CapacityOperational(end of month)
2472 MW
1474 MW
500 MW
37316 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
50
Daily electricity production of between 594-663 GWh in Feb 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for February 2020
• Maximum daily production of 663 GWh on 6 Feb 2020 (Thursday)
• Minimum daily production of 594 GWh on 16 Feb 2020 (Sunday)
100
0
600
200
400
700
300
800
500
22214 17
GWh/day
12 26141 282 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 3013 2315 2916 18 3119 20 24 2725
DSR
Coal
Wind
Solar PV
CSP
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Nuclear
Imports
Other
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
1474 MW
500 MW
37316 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
51
Daily electricity production of between 472-681 GWh in Mar 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for March 2020
• Maximum daily production of 681 GWh on 17 Mar 2020 (Tuesday)
• Minimum daily production of 472 GWh on 29 Mar 2020 (Sunday)
400
0
100
700
600
300
500
200
800
135 231596 257 28122 10
GWh/day
1 3 8 1411 164 18 19 20 272217 24 26 29 30 3121
Diesel & Gas
DSR
Solar PV
Wind
Pumped Storage
CSP
Hydro
Coal
Nuclear
Imports
Other
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
1549 MW
500 MW
37316 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
52
Daily electricity production of between 457-526 GWh in Apr 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for April 2020
• Maximum daily production of 526 GWh on 29 Apr 2020 (Wednesday)
• Minimum daily production of 457 GWh on 11 Apr 2020 (Saturday)
600
700
400
0
100
800
500
300
200
23 291210 30
GWh/day
22201 2 3 26154 5 6 7 8 9 11 241913 14 2716 211817 25 28 31
DSR
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
Nuclear
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Other
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
1774 MW
500 MW
37316 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
53
Daily electricity production of between 497-618 GWh in May 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for May 2020
• Maximum daily production of 618 GWh on 27 May 2020 (Wednesday)
• Minimum daily production of 497 GWh on 2 May 2020 (Saturday)
100
300
800
0
700
400
500
600
200
296 211812 248 3125
GWh/day
1 222 3 4 5 7 9 10 11 1714 15 271613 20 23 26 28 3019
DSR
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Other
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Imports
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
1774 MW
500 MW
37316 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
54
Daily electricity production of between 583-664 GWh in Jun 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for June 2020
• Maximum daily production of 664 GWh on 17 Jun 2020 (Wednesday)
• Minimum daily production of 583 GWh on 7 Jun 2020 (Sunday)
100
700
200
0
400
500
600
300
800
2 318 2415 22
GWh/day
3 6 13 26 281 4 5 7 199 10 23 3012 14 16 1711 20 21 25 27 2918
DSR
Nuclear
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Other
Coal
Imports
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
1774 MW
500 MW
37225 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
55
Daily electricity production of between 591-671 GWh in Jul 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for July 2020
• Maximum daily production of 671 GWh on 15 Jul 2020 (Wednesday)
• Minimum daily production of 591 GWh on 5 Jul 2020 (Sunday)
500
200
0
100
600
300
700
800
400
14 29232 313027101 28
GWh/day
183 4 225 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 15 16 17 19 20 21 24 25 26
DSR
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
Pumped Storage
Other
Hydro
Nuclear
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
1814 MW
500 MW
37225 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
56
Daily electricity production of between 576-670 GWh in Aug 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for August 2020
• Maximum daily production of 670 GWh on 20 Aug 2020 (Thursday)
• Minimum daily production of 576 GWh on 2 Aug 2020 (Sunday)
400
100
700
0
200
800
300
600
500
1813 314 231
GWh/day
2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 291511 12 272216 2417 1914 21 25 26 28 3020
CSP
DSR
Solar PV
Coal
Wind
Other
Pumped Storage
Imports
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Nuclear
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
1814 MW
500 MW
37225 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
57
Daily electricity production of between 578-678 GWh in Sep 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for September 2020
• Maximum daily production of 678 GWh on 1 Sep 2020 (Tuesday)
• Minimum daily production of 578 GWh on 20 Sep 2020 (Sunday)
0
500
600
100
400
800
200
700
300
206 14 21162 297
GWh/day
1 103 4 5 8 9 11 12 2813 15 3017 18 2319 22 2624 25 27 31
DSR
Pumped Storage
Wind
Solar PV
Other
CSP
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Imports
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
1957 MW
500 MW
37225 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
58
Daily electricity production of between 574-648 GWh in Oct 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for October 2020
• Maximum daily production of 648 GWh on 2 Oct 2020 (Friday)
• Minimum daily production of 574 GWh on 25 Oct 2020 (Sunday)
0
100
400
700
200
300
800
600
500
304
GWh/day
5 186 7 291 252 263 8 9 10 11 2712 13 281714 15 16 19 2220 21 23 3124
DSR
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Other
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Imports
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2188 MW
1957 MW
500 MW
37225 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
59
Daily electricity production of between 574-637 GWh in Nov 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for November 2020
• Maximum daily production of 637 GWh on 10 Nov 2020 (Tuesday)
• Minimum daily production of 574 GWh on 29 Nov 2020 (Sunday)
500
300
700
400
0
100
200
600
800
3 2619141 271713 284 2012
GWh/day
252 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 15 16 18 21 3022 23 24 29 31Imports
Nuclear
DSR
CSP
Wind
Solar PV
Other
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2463 MW
2032 MW
500 MW
37945 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
60
Daily electricity production of between 514-629 GWh in Dec 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for December 2020
• Maximum daily production of 629 GWh on 3 Dec 2020 (Thursday)
• Minimum daily production of 514 GWh on 26 Dec 2020 (Saturday)
100
500
800
600
200
300
0
400
700
1913 28175 274 7
GWh/day
1 2362 3 8 189 10 11 12 14 15 16 20 21 2622 24 25 29 30 31
DSR
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Imports
Other
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2495 MW
2032 MW
500 MW
37945 MW
3409 MW
1860 MW
600 MW
2732 MW
CapacityOperational(end of month)
Supply Sources
61
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.6-8.2% in Jan 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for January 2020
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.0% on 5 Jan 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.2% on 19 Jan 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.3% on 1 Jan 2020 (Wednesday-National Holiday)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
1.6%
1.6%
4 118
1.8%
2
2.1%
1.3%
Relative daily contribution
1
2.0%
1.7%
3.6%
2.0%5.5%
3.3%
1.3%
2.7%
1.1%
1.6%
5.9%
4.2%
1.2%
1.1%
2.8%
1.2%
3
3.2%
1.8%
1.2%
3.8%
2.6%
5
1.2% 1.3%
1.7%
2.3%
5.8%
0.9% 1.1%
0.9%
6
2.7%
5.7%
0.1%
7
6.3%
1.0%
2.4%
2.8%
0.5%
1.6%
13
1.6%
3.4%
9
3.5%
10 27
1.7%
1.8%
1.2%
12
1.6%
1.1%
2.1%
1.1%
14
5.8%
3.7%
1.7%
1.0%
15
5.5%
1.7%
1.8%
1.0%
16
1.7%
1.5%
0.9%
17
5.9%
0.9%
18
1.6%
5.2%
1.0%
19
4.8%
1.1%
20
1.6%
2.9%
1.0%
21
2.3%2.3%
0.9%
22
1.7%
3.6%
0.9%
23 24
1.3%
3.2%
26
0.7%
1.7%
3.2%
0.9%
25
1.9%
3.2%
1.8%
1.2%
1.8%
2.1%
1.1%
28
1.8%
2.8%
1.1%
29
3.0%
1.2%
30
1.7%
1.1%
31
6.9%
6.2%6.6%
5.2%
5.6%
7.1%
4.8%
3.6%3.9%
6.2%
4.8%
4.4% 4.5%
6.2%
7.4%7.8%
5.4%
4.9%5.2%
8.2%
5.4%5.0%
6.4%
5.8%
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
2080 MW
1474 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Supply Sources
62
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
0.8%
1.7%
2.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.4%
0.3%
1.6%
5 29
2.9%2.0%
3.3%
1.6%
3
Relative daily contribution
2.2%3.0%
2.3%
3.1%
1.6%
2.7%
0.5%
1.6%
0.5%0.9%
1
0.5%
2.3%
0.7%
1.3%
3.0%
1.4%
2
0.9%0.8%
1.5%
0.5%
104
3.9%
1.3%
2.9%2.7%
1.5%
3.4%
6 129
1.9%
1.1%
0.7%
7 8
1.2%
2.7%
1.5%
3.2%
11
0.9%
13
0.9%
14
1.2%
1.9%
0.2%
15
1.1%
4.2%
0.3%0.8%
16
1.0%
2.4%
0.4%
17
1.0%
0.4%
18
1.1%
2.0%
0.5%
19
1.4%
0.7%
20
1.8%
1.4%
0.8%
21
1.6%
3.7%
5.2%
0.8%
1.5%
22
3.8%
1.1%
23
2.0%
2.1%
5.0%
1.1%
24
1.9%
1.0%
25
0.3%
26
1.5%
1.4%
3.0%
0.6%
27
2.0%
4.1%
28
3.8%
0.6%
4.4%
30 31
4.8%
4.3%4.0%
5.4%5.6%
4.7%
4.4%
5.7%
5.2%
4.7%
4.2%
3.2%
5.5%
3.7%
4.5%
3.6%
5.0%
4.0%
6.1%
7.1%
5.1%4.8% 4.7%
6.9%
5.9%5.6%
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.2-7.1% in Feb 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for February
2020
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.3% on 23 Feb 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 4.2% on 16 Feb 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.2% on 9 Feb 2020 (Sunday)
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Supply Sources
2080 MW
1549 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
63
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.0-8.3% in Mar 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for March 2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
4 10
1.0%
1.2%
0.1% 0.2%
25
1.9%
0.7%
1
0.6%0.6%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
Relative daily contribution
0.7%
2.4%
5.3%
1.8%
1.3%
0.6%
4.3%
2
1.5%
1.9%
0.7%
83
1.9%1.9%
1.4%
1.8%3.3%
1.8%
0.5%
1.8%
3.7%
5
0.2%
2.5%1.8%
2.0%
6
2.0%1.5%
7
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
2.3%
0.7% 0.7%
9
2.6%
3.7%
1.8%
1.3%
0.3%
12
1.7%
13
2.2%
0.8%
14
2.0%
2.8%
0.9%
15 21
1.7%
4.5%
0.7%
16
1.4%
3.6%
0.5%
6.8%
17
1.7%
3.5%
0.7%
18
1.6%
2.2%
0.5%
2719
1.8%
2.4%
0.6%
20
1.7%
1.3%
0.3%
1.7%
1.8%
0.4%
22
1.7%
2.2%
0.6%
23
1.6%
0.4%
24
1.9%
2.6%
0.8%
2.2%
0.9%
4.2%
26
2.5%
3.1%
11
2.5%
6.9%
4.1%
1.1%
28
2.4%
1.0%
29
4.2%
2.5%
0.7%
30
4.9%
0.1%
31
3.7%4.0% 3.9% 4.1%
1.1%
4.9%
4.1%
3.0%
4.0% 4.1%
5.0%
5.6%5.4%
5.9%
4.9%
4.0%
4.5%
3.4%
5.3%
8.3%
7.7%
7.1%
5.2%
6.4%
4.5%
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.5% on 27 Mar 2020 (Friday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.3% on 26 Mar 2020 (Thursday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.1% on 28 Mar 2020 (Saturday)
2080 MW
1699 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Supply Sources
64
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
4.5%
92
1.7%
2.7%
0.5%
3.9%
Relative daily contribution
7.5%
25
1.1%0.7%
2.3%
2.1%
3.9%
0.6%
2.3%
4.6%
3.2%
6.1%
6
0.8%
1
5.8%
1.9%
0.8%
3.8%1.6%
0.6%
2.6%
0.9%
3
7.0%
23
2.2%
2.4%
4
0.8%
3.5%
4.7%
0.9%
5
2.6%
5.9%
2.4%
1.0%
6.6%
0.8%
107
2.5%
188
0.8%
2.3%
3.5%
1.0%
1.9%
2.2%
3.9%
11
2.3%
0.9%
12
2.0%
2.1%
13
3.2%
14
2.3%
1.3%
0.9%
15
1.3%
2.5%
1.0%
0.7%
16
2.5%
1.4%
1.0%
17
2.4%
1.0%
4.4%
0.8%
19
2.2%
4.4%
0.5%
1.2%
20
4.2%
1.6%
1.9%
0.2%
21
2.0%
1.7%
0.3%
22
5.2%
1.5%
1.5%
0.2%
1.2%
0.1%
24
1.6%
1.8%
0.3%0.8%
2.8%
0.6%
26
0.1%
27
5.2%
1.4%
3.7%
28
1.9%
0.8%
29
2.2%
0.8%
30 31
7.7%
4.9%
6.5%
1.9%
5.0%
9.4%
7.8%
6.8%
5.9%
6.8%
8.9%
4.9%4.6%
4.8%
5.6%
7.5%
3.7%4.1%
3.1%3.0%
5.7%
4.0%3.8%
8.1%
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.0-9.4% in Apr 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for April 2020
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.6% on 7 Apr 2020 (Tuesday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.9% on 6 Apr 2020 (Monday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.1% on 8 Apr 2020 (Wednesday)
2080 MW
1774 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Supply Sources
65
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.0-8.2% in May 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for May 2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
6
0.7%
4.8%
8
0.4%
1.8%
7
0.7%
Relative daily contribution
2.2%
1.0%
0.7%
1
2.3%
3.7%
0.8%
122
2.2%
1.8%
2.3%
3.0%
0.8%0.4%0.5%
3
0.5%
3.2%
2.0%
2.2%
0.3%0.8%
4
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
5
2.2%
0.7%
1.1%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8% 0.6%
1.8%
0.7%
1.7%
10
1.3%
1.9%
1.0%
1.7%
1.5%
0.7%
6.5%
1.8%
3.6%
9 11
1.6%
2.5%
0.6%
1.7%
13
1.4%
0.6%
1.2%
14
4.7%
1.7%
4.1%
0.6%
5.5%
3.7%
15
1.8%
3.8%
1.3%
0.8%
16
1.8%
1.9%
17
6.4%
1.7%
0.5%
18
1.4%
1.3%
19
1.7%
1.5%
0.6%
20
1.6%
4.1%
0.5%
21
5.7%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
22
4.1%
1.7%
23
1.4%
1.9%
24
1.5%
6.3%
1.5%
0.5%
2.7%
25
1.0%
4.0%
0.4%
3.8%
26
0.5%
27
1.5%
4.4%
0.6%
28
1.4%
3.4%
0.6%
3.3%
29
1.4%
0.6%
30
2.4%
1.3%
31
3.8%
6.8%
5.3%
4.2%
4.9%4.7%
3.5%
4.6% 4.5% 4.4%
3.4%
3.8%
6.2%
3.3%3.7%
8.2%
5.3%
3.6%
0.7%
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.3% on 2 May 2020 (Saturday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 6.3% on 25 May 2020 (Monday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.8% on 3 May 2020 (Sunday)
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1774 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Supply Sources
66
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.7-7.8% in Jun 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for June 2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
1310 16
1.6%
0.5%
1.1%
1.5%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5% 0.5%
2.6%
1.6%
1.4%
Relative daily contribution
3.7%
1.6%
30
1.7%
6 24
0.6%
1
1.5%
0.5%
2.6%
1.4%
2
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
1.6%
0.5%0.4% 0.5%
3
1.2%
2.3% 2.5%
1.3%
0.3%
5
0.4%
1.6%
4
2.8%
11
0.8%
1.6%
1.5%
0.5%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%0.5%
7 128
1.3%
5.0%
9
5.9%
0.2%
5.5%
4.7%
0.1%
3.2%
0.5%
1.6%
2.5%
0.6%
14
1.5%
1.2%
0.6%
15
7.8%
1.4%
0.5%
1.2%
4.7%
2.6%
0.4%
17
1.4%
3.3%
0.5%
18
1.4%
4.1%
19
3.9%
20
1.5%
2.7%
0.5% 0.5%
21
5.1%
1.5%
1.2%
0.5%
22
1.5%
23
1.4%
5.7%1.4%
5.0%
0.5%
25
1.3%
3.7%
0.3%
26
1.5%
5.9%
0.5%
27
1.3%
4.2%
0.3%
3.9%
28
1.4%
0.4%
29
1.3%
2.1%
31
4.7%
3.3%2.9%
2.7%
3.5%3.8%
3.5%
6.6%
7.2%
6.7%
4.4%
3.2%
4.5%
6.9%
4.2%
5.1%
6.0% 5.9%
4.5%
5.6%5.3%
3.9%
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.6% on 1 Jun 2020 (Monday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.9% on 10 Jun 2020 (Wednesday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.6% on 15 Jun 2020 (Monday)
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1774 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Supply Sources
67
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.9-7.9% in Jul 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for July 2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2
4.1%
0.2%
1.3%
8
1.6%
10
2.6%
1.2%
3
3.0%
9
Relative daily contribution
1.5%
6
3.1%
0.5%0.1%
1
1.4%
4.1%
0.4%0.5%
1.5%
11
3.5%
1.3%
1.5%
0.5% 0.4%
4
1.6%
0.6%
5
3.0%
6.3%
1.5%
1.6%
0.4% 0.5%
1.5%
0.3%
7
1.2%
0.3%
1.3%5.8%
5.5%
0.2%
1.6%
4.3%
0.1% 0.4%
2.2%
4.4%
12
1.4%
13
1.2%
4.3%
0.2%
14
1.5%
24
1.6%
1.9%
4.8%
0.4%
15
1.5%
3.8%
2.4%
23
0.4%
16
0.6%
1.5%
3.1%
0.5%0.3%
17
3.5%
0.4%
18
1.6%
1.9%
0.3%
19
1.6%
2.0%
0.3%
20
3.6%
1.6%
1.7%
0.4%
21
1.5%
1.2%
5.0%
22
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
1.4%
0.3%
1.7%
3.9%
0.5%
25
1.8%
3.5%
26
2.0%
0.4%
4.5%
2.8%
0.4%
28
1.6%
1.5%
29
1.7%
2.1%
0.6%
30
5.4%
1.7%
0.7%
31
5.0% 5.0%
3.2%
4.5%
5.9%
27
7.0%
5.7%
6.4%
7.9%
5.6%
3.8%
5.5%
4.4%
5.0%
3.8%
3.2%2.9%
6.1%
4.0%
5.8%
4.1%3.6%
4.4%
3.1%
5.7%
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.8% on 26 Jul 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 6.3% on 13 Jul 2020 (Monday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.6% on 31 Jul 2020 (Friday)
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1814 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Supply Sources
68
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.7-8.0% in Aug 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for August 2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
0.9%
1.9%
126
0.6%
5.4%
18
1.8%
7
3.9%
6.8%
4.6%
2.1%
15
Relative daily contribution
3.1%
1.8%
1.7%
1.4%
0.6%
5.6%
1.8%
1
0.5%
1.7%
1.9%
3.5%
2
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.7%
3.7%
1.6%
0.6%0.4%
3.1%
3
4.4%
1.7%
10
1.8%
9
4.5%
0.4%
4
2.0%
0.5%
5
0.5%
2.9%
1.7%
13
0.6%
5.3%
0.5%
26
0.5%
8
5.8%
0.7%
3.7%
11
1.7%
3.7%
0.7%
3.3%
2.3%
3.9%
0.6%
14
1.8%
5.5%
0.7%
3.1%
7.8%
0.6%
16
5.9%
1.7%
0.6%
17
1.6%
5.6%
0.6%
1.7%
2.3%
0.6%
5.7%
19
4.8%
0.7%
2.1%
20
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
21
1.9%
2.1%
0.8%
22
2.0%
6.6%
3.2%
0.7%
23
1.9%
2.2%
0.7%
24
1.8%
3.0%
0.6%
6.2%
2.0%1.8%
3.5%
0.7%
1.8%
3.5%
1.0%
27
1.8%
0.9%
28
1.7%
0.5%
29
1.8%
1.0%
30
0.9%
31
3.8%
25
5.7%
5.2%
7.5%
7.9%
5.7%
6.8%
6.0%
4.7%
8.0%
5.7%
4.6% 4.5%
4.0%
5.9%
4.8%
6.0%6.3%
6.6%
4.9%
4.1%
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.0% on 30 Aug 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.8% on 9 Aug 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.0% on 30 Aug 2020 (Sunday)
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1814 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Supply Sources
69
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.3-9.2% in Sep 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for September
2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
1.9%
1.3%
1.7%
8 23
3.2%
10
1.0%
2.1%
26
2.2%
Relative daily contribution
1.4%
1.0%
13
4.2%
3
1.3%
5.2%
0.9%
2.0%
2.0%
0.8%
2.2%
4.8%
1
2.2%0.8%
2.0%
1.2%0.4%
1.6%
2
2.0%
0.6%0.8%
3.3%
2.2%
4
4.7%
1.0%
2.1%
2.2%
0.1%
5
1.6%
0.8%
6
2.0%
7
1.0%
2.6%
9
6.1%
2.1%
1.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1211
4.7%
0.6%
1.8%
0.9%
2.2%
3.9%
3.3%
1.0%
6.5%
14
2.2%
1.4%
1.1%
15
2.2%
1.1%
16
2.1%
1.0%
1.1%
4.2%
17
2.2%
2.2%
1.1%
18
2.4%
1.6%
1.2%
19
2.3%
3.9%
20
2.4%
21
2.1%
1.1%
22
1.4%
7.4%
1.1%
2.1%
2.3%
5.5%
0.6%
24
5.4%
0.7%
25
2.5%
4.5%
1.2%
2.6%
1.0%
27
2.4%
0.5%
28
2.3%
2.5%
0.5%
29
2.3%
2.8%
0.5%
7.9%
30 31
6.0%
4.5%
5.5%
0.8%
3.7%
4.9%
5.7%
5.1%
6.1%
7.5%
9.2%
4.7%
5.5%5.2%
7.4% 7.4%
5.2%
4.6%
5.0%
8.2%
5.8%
5.2%5.6%
3.3% Solar PV
Wind
CSP
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.6% on 27 Sep 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 6.1% on 13 Sep 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.2% on 19 Sep 2020 (Saturday)
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1957 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Supply Sources
70
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.6-8.8% in Oct 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for October 2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2.6%
12
0.8%0.0%
18
2.0%
4.1%
1.2%
74
3.9%
2.4%
7.7%
2
2.5%
5
2.5%
Relative daily contribution
4.7%
2.0%
1.6%
0.4%0.5% 0.8%
2.7%
1
2.5%
4.7%
3.6%
0.5%
2.5%
3.0%
2.1%
1.4%
3
2.6%
1.2%
1.3%
31
0.8%
1.2%
9
1.5%
1.9%
0.6%
6
2.0%
1.8%
0.7%
8
2.2%
0.9%
5.0%
10
6.0%
2.6%
3.2%
1.2%
11
1.2%
2.5%
13
2.0%
1.2%
14
2.5%
3.2%
1.2%
3.8%
15
2.5%
27
3.0%
0.5%1.2%
16
2.7%
1.2%
17
2.5%
3.2%
1.1%
2.4%
29
1.1%
19 23
2.6%
3.9%
1.2%
20
6.8%
2.4%
2.4%
1.1%
21
2.3%
0.5%
2.6%
0.8%
22
1.8%
3.2%
2.4%
2.6%
0.9%
24
2.1%
3.3%
0.7%
2825
2.0%
0.7%
26
4.8%
3.0%
0.9%
1.8%
7.7%
5.4%
2.3%
1.2%
0.1%
2.0%
3.4%
0.8%
30
7.3% 7.2%
6.3%
4.7%
2.6%
3.7%
4.6% 2.1%
7.1%
5.5%
7.9%
5.7%
6.9%6.7%
6.3%6.1% 5.9%
5.7%5.4%
6.0% 6.1%
6.6%
6.0%
4.5%4.9%
6.3%
1.6%
8.8%
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.7% on 10 Oct 2020 (Saturday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.0% on 10 Oct 2020 (Saturday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.2% on 11 Oct 2020 (Sunday)
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Supply Sources
2188 MW
1957 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
71
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 5.1-8.8% in Nov 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for November 2020
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.9% on 29 Nov 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.3% on 28 Nov 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.3% on 8 Nov 2020 (Sunday)
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2463 MW
2032 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Supply Sources
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
1.0%
2.3%
17
Relative daily contribution
1.9%
4.8%
0.7%
13
7.1%
16
2.5%
1.2%1.1%
2.6%
2.7%4.2%
2.8%
14
2.4%2.6%
3.7%
21
2.3%
1.2% 1.2%
2.6%
3.5%2.7%
7
4.8%
2.1%
2.5%
2.4%
3.1%
0.8%
3
2.5%
0.6%1.1%
4
2.6%
8.3%
1.8%
0.8%
4.4%
5 9
1.0%
6.8%
6
3.4%
4.1%
1.3% 1.3%
8
2.5%
1.2%
10
2.5%
11
1.2%
2.6%
12
3.1%4.1%
1.0%
3.2%
15 22
2.4%
2.8%
1.0%
2.9%2.3%
3.2%
1.2%1.0%
2.5%
3.6%
2.7%
1.2%
18
2.6%
3.9%
19
2.7%
3.8%
1.2%
20
1.5%
4.6%
0.7%
21
2.4%
3.2%
0.9%
3.1%
1.0%
23
2.8%
4.6%
1.1%
24
2.7%
1.2%
25
2.9%
3.6%
1.2%
26
2.8%
4.6%
1.2%
27
2.2%
5.3%
0.9%
28
3.0%
2.9%
1.2%
29
6.9%2.8%
1.3%
30
2.5%
31
6.6%
8.4%
5.4%5.1%
5.7%
7.9%
6.8%7.0%
6.4%
7.7%
6.3%
7.5%
7.0%
6.1%
6.5%
7.3%
7.7% 7.6%
6.5%6.8%
8.4%
6.9%
8.6% 8.4%
7.1%
8.8%
7.4%
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
72
Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 4.2-9.5% in Dec 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for December
2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
3.0%
2.6%
2.6%
2.7%
1.1% 1.3%
7.0%
1
1.6%
1511
Relative daily contribution
5.4%
1.1%
5.5%
3.0%
1.2%
4.2%
3.0%
0.4%
3.7%
7.6%
0.9%1.3%
10
1.3%
4.7%
2
2.8% 2.7%
1.2%
0.1%
3.6%
3
2.6%
4.6%
4
2.2%
2.6%
3.9%
2.6%
2.6%
1.1% 1.0%
5
3.2%
2.3%
0.9%
6
2.5%
1.4%
24
1.1%
6.2%
7
3.9%
0.7%
8
2.7%
1.2%
3.4%
1.5%
9
2.8%
3.7%
9.6%
4.2%
12 13
3.5%
1.3%
14
2.7%
2.7%
3.6%
29
2.8%6.0%
1.3%
16
3.9%
1.2%
2.5%
17
2.7%
3.7%
7.6%
1.2%
18
3.1%
1.3%
19
2.6%
7.3%
3.4%
0.9%
20
1.2%
2.9%
21
1.5%
3.4%
22
3.1%
0.6%
4.7%3.8%
23
3.2%
2.9%
8.0%
1.4%
3.3%
3.5%
25
1.1%
8.4%
3.2%
1.6%
26
3.2%
5.0%
27
2.9%
1.3%
28
6.9%
1.9%
4.2%
0.5%
2.3%
2.8%
30
0.7%
31
3.4%
7.5%
8.4%
8.8%8.4%
6.9%6.7%
7.6%7.4% 7.5%
7.7%
7.0%
5.2%
8.9%
7.5%
8.1%
9.5%
6.7%
5.7%
7.4%
7.6%
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 3.4% on 26 Dec 2020 (Saturday)
• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.5% on 6 Dec 2020 (Sunday)
• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.6% on 26 Dec 2020 (Saturday)
Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2495 MW
2032 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Supply Sources
Other power system statistics7
Actual load shedding in 20206
Hourly electricity production (2020)5
Daily electricity production (2020)4
Weekly electricity production (2020)3
Monthly electricity production (2020)2
Overview actual electricity production (2020)1
Agenda
74
Diurnal Courses of electricity supply sources in RSAActual monthly average diurnal courses of total power supply in RSA Jan 2012-Dec 2014
10
16
18
0
22
26
28
30
32
34
20
2
4
12
6
24
8
14
GW
Solar PV
Nuclear
Wind
CSP
PS
Hydro
Other
Diesel
Imports
Coal
2012 2013 2014
Supply Sources
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded.Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
75
Diurnal Courses of electricity supply sources in RSAActual monthly average diurnal courses of total power supply in RSA Jan 2015-Dec 2017
15
0
5
10
20
25
30
35
GW
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Hydro
PS
Imports
Diesel
Coal
Nuclear
Other
2015 2016 2017
Supply Sources
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded.Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
76
Diurnal Courses of electricity supply sources in RSAActual monthly average diurnal courses of total power supply in RSA from Jan 2018-Dec 2020
20
5
0
35
15
10
25
30
GW
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
Coal
Hydro
PS
Diesel
Imports
Nuclear
Other
2018 2019 2020
Supply Sources
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded.Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
77
Diurnal Courses of electricity supply sources in RSAActual monthly average diurnal courses of the total power supply in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020
0
20
10
5
15
25
30
35
GW
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
PS
CSP
Coal
Diesel
Imports
Nuclear
Other
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Supply Sources
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded.Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
78
1.2
3.0
0.2
1.4
0.6
1.6
1.8
2.4
0.0
2.0
2.2
0.4
2.6
0.8
2.8
1.0
3.2
GW
Diurnal Courses for renewable energy supplyActual monthly average diurnal courses of solar PV, wind and CSP in RSA for the months from
Jan-Dec 2020
CSP
Wind
Solar PV
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISESources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Supply Sources
2495 MW
2032 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
79
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
2.0
GW
Diurnal Courses for renewable energy supplyActual monthly average diurnal courses of solar PV, wind & CSP in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
2.0
GW
Wind
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISESources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
0.5
0.0
2.0
1.0
1.5
GW
Solar PV
Supply Sources
CSP
2495 MW
2032 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
80
10
0
5
15
20
25
30
35
GW
DSR
Pumped Storage
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Nuclear
Other
Hourly electricity production in Jan 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for January 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
SupplySources
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
81
10
5
0
30
15
20
25
35
GW
DSR
Nuclear
CSP
Hydro
Solar PV
Wind
Pumped Storage
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Other
Hourly electricity production in Feb 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for February 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
82
10
0
5
35
15
20
25
30
GW
Pumped Storage
DSR
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Nuclear
Other
Hourly electricity production in Mar 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for March 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
83
15
0
5
20
10
25
30
35
GW
DSR
Nuclear
CSP
Solar PV
Wind
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Other
Hourly electricity production in Apr 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for April 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
84
5
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
GW
Solar PV
DSR
Wind
Other
CSP
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Nuclear
Hourly electricity production in May 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for May 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
85
10
15
0
20
25
30
5
35
GW
DSR
Pumped Storage
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
Hydro
Imports
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Other
Hourly electricity production in Jun 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for June 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
86
0
5
10
20
15
25
30
35
GW
Pumped Storage
DSR
Wind
CSP
Nuclear
Solar PV
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Other
Hourly electricity production in Jul 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for July 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
87
0
5
10
20
15
25
30
35
GW
DSR
Wind
Pumped Storage
Solar PV
CSP
Imports
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Other
Hourly electricity production in Aug 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for August 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
88
20
5
35
0
10
15
25
30
GW
Wind
DSR
Solar PV
CSP
Coal
Diesel & Gas
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Imports
Nuclear
Other
Hourly electricity production in Sep 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for September 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
89
5
0
25
15
10
20
30
35
GW
DSR
CSP
Solar PV
Other
Nuclear
Wind
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Hourly electricity production in Oct 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for October 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
GW
DSR
Wind
CSP
Solar PV
Pumped Storage
Hydro
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Nuclear
Other
Hourly electricity production in Nov 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for November 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
91
20
0
15
5
10
25
30
35
GW
Solar PV
DSR
Wind
Hydro
CSP
Pumped Storage
Diesel & Gas
Coal
Imports
Nuclear
Other
Hourly electricity production in Dec 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for December 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day
Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
SupplySources
92
147 81 62 53 174 239 10 11 12 13 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Relative hourly contribution
13.0%
• Solar PV maximum relative contribution of 5.2% between 11h00 and 12h00 on 5 Jan 2020
• Wind maximum relative contribution of 6.9% between 22h00 and 23h00 on 19 Jan 2020
• CSP maximum relative contribution of 2.0% between 14h00 and 15h00 on 5 Jan 2020
CSP
Wind
Solar PV
SupplySources
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 1.1-13.0% in Jan 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for January 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1474 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
93
321 4 85 187 30106 269 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2919 20 21 2722 23 24 25 28 310.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
10.6%
Relative hourly contribution
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 5.7% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 23 Feb 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 6.8% between 23h00 and 00h00 on 23 Feb 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.8% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 23 Feb 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.6-10.6% in Feb 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for February 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1549 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
94
71 52 3 4 16156 8 199 10 2811 12 13 14 17 18 20 21 22 23 24 3025 26 27 29 310.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Relative hourly contribution
12.4%
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 6.6% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 28 Mar 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.1% between 03h00 and 04h00 on 26 Mar 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.8% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 28 Mar 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.5-12.3% in Mar 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for March 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1699 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
95
283 181 192 5 3184 76 9 10 2511 12 13 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 24 26 27 29 300.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
15.6%
Relative hourly contribution
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 7.0% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 7 Apr 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 9.6% between 05h00 and 06h00 on 12 Apr 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.8% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 17 Apr 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.6-15.9% in Apr 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for April 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1774 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
96
1 167 256 302 3 4 5 8 109 11 12 13 3114 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 26 27 28 290.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Relative hourly contribution
12.5%
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 6.5% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 2 May 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.4% between 05h00 and 06h00 on 25 May 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.7% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 16 May 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.3-12.5% in May 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for May 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1774 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
97
5 301 832 4 6 292297 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2019 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 310.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Relative hourly contribution
11.9%
CSP
Solar PV
Wind
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 4.8% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 6 Jun 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.6% between 23h00 and 00h00 on 11 Jun 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.5% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 20 Jun 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.3-12.0% in Jun 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for June 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1774 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
98
3 191 82 4 125 76 9 10 11 2413 14 15 16 17 18 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 3128 29 300.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Relative hourly contribution
11.4%
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 5.1% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 25 Jul 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 8.8% between 00h00 and 01h00 on 13 Jul 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.5% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 1 Jul 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.5-11.4% in Jul 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for July 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1814 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
99
4 31271 2 73 65 8 9 10 11 12 1613 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2825 26 29 300.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%13.1%
Relative hourly contribution
Wind
Solar PV
CSP
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 5.5% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 23 Aug 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 8.1% between 03h00 and 04h00 on 9 Aug 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.9% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 30 Aug 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.6-13.1% in Aug 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for August 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1814 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
100
1163 311 2572 4 29215 8 189 10 271412 1613 1715 19 3020 22 23 24 26 280.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Relative hourly contribution
15.2%
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 6.6% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 26 Sep 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.6% between 04h00 and 05h00 on 2 Sep 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 2.0% between 14h00 and 15h00 on 20 Sep 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.8-15.2% in Sep 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for September 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1957 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
101
4 6 101 5 302 3 7 8 9 11 2912 13 1714 15 2416 262518 19 20 21 22 23 27 28 310.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
13.6%
Relative hourly contribution
Wind
Solar PV
CSP
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 6.8% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 4 Oct 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.0% between 23h00 and 00h00 on 10 Oct 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.9% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 10 Oct 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.5-13.7% in Oct 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for October 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
1957 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
102
91 7 302 543 6 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 1916 17 18 20 21 2922 23 24 25 26 27 28 310.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Relative hourly contribution
14.8%
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 6.9% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 25 Nov 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.1% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 30 Nov 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 2.0% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 29 Nov 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 1.1-15.2% in Nov 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for November 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
2032 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
103
2295 101 8 312 3 4 76 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 300.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Relative hourly contribution
16.1%
Solar PV
Wind
CSP
SupplySources
• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 7.9% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 26 Dec 2020
• Maximum wind relative contribution of 8.1% between 18h00 and 19h00 on 25 Dec 2020
• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 2.3% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 25 Dec 2020
Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.7-16.0% in Dec 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for December 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2472 MW
2032 MW
Capacity operational
(end of month)
500 MW
104
Solar PV supply in Jan 2020 was very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of January 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Solar PV in MW System Load in MW
Hourly PV Average PV System Load
1474 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
105
Solar PV supply in Feb 2020 was very stableHourly solar PV production for all 29 days of February 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Solar PV in MW System Load in MW
System LoadHourly PV Average PV
1549 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
106
Solar PV supply in Mar 2020 was very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of March 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Solar PV in MW System Load in MW
Hourly PV Average PV System Load
1699 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
107
Solar PV supply in Apr 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 30 days of April 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Solar PV in MW System Load in MW
Hourly PV System LoadAverage PV
1774 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
108
Solar PV supply in May 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of May 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Solar PV in MW System Load in MW
Hourly PV Average PV System Load
1744 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
109
Solar PV supply in Jun 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 30 days of June 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Solar PV in MW System Load in MW
Average PVHourly PV System Load
1774 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
110
Solar PV supply in Jul 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of July 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWSolar PV in MW
Hourly PV System LoadAverage PV
1814 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
111
Solar PV supply in Aug 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of August 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWSolar PV in MW
Hourly PV Average PV System Load
1814 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
112
Solar PV supply in Sep 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 30 days of September 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWSolar PV in MW
Hourly PV Average PV System Load
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1957 MW
Capacity operational
113
Solar PV supply in Oct 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of October 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWSolar PV in MW
Hourly PV Average PV System Load
1957 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
114
Solar PV supply in Nov 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 30 days of November 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Solar PV in MW System Load in MW
Hourly PV System LoadAverage PV
2032 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
115
Solar PV supply in Dec 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of December 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWSolar PV in MW
Hourly PV Average PV System Load
2032 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
116
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWWind in MW
In Jan 2020, wind supply increased in the eveningsHourly wind production for all 31 days of January 2020 & average system load diurnal course
2080 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
System LoadHourly wind Average wind
117
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Wind in MW System Load in MW
In Feb 2020, wind supply increased during the evening peakHourly wind production for all 29 days of February 2020 & average system load diurnal course
2080 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
System LoadHourly wind Average wind
118
In Mar 2020, wind supply increased during the evening peakHourly wind production for all 31 days of March 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWWind in MW2080 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly wind System Load Average wind
119
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Wind in MW System Load in MW
In Apr 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 30 days of April 2020 & average system load diurnal course
2080 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly wind System Load Average wind
120
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWWind in MW
In May 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 31 days of May 2020 & average system load diurnal course
2080 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly wind System Load Average wind
121
In Jun 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 30 days of June 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWWind in MW2080 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly wind System Load Average wind
122
In Jul 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 31 days of July 2020 and average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Wind in MW System Load in MW2080 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly wind System Load Average wind
123
In Aug 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 31 days of August 2020 and average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Wind in MW System Load in MW2080 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
System LoadHourly wind Average wind
124
In Sep 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 30 days of September 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Wind in MW System Load in MW2080 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly wind Average windSystem Load
125
In Oct 2020, wind supply increased towards the evening peakHourly wind production for all 31 days of October 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWWind in MW2188 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Average windHourly wind System Load
126
In Nov 2020, wind supply increased during the evening peakHourly wind production for all 30 days of November 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWWind in MW2463 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly wind System Load Average wind
127
In Dec 2020, wind supply increased during the evening peakHourly wind production for all 31 days of December 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Wind in MW System Load in MW2495 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly wind System Load Average wind
128
In Jan 2020, CSP storage used in eveningsHourly CSP production for all 31 days of January 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWCSP in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly CSP Average CSP System Load
129
In Feb 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 28 days of February 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWCSP in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly CSP Average CSP System Load
130
In Mar 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of March 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWCSP in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly CSP Average CSP System Load
131
In Apr 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of April 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWCSP in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly CSP Average CSP System Load
132
In May 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of May 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CSP in MW System Load in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly CSP Average CSP System Load
133
In Jun 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of June 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CSP in MW System Load in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly CSP Average CSP System Load
134
In Jul 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of July 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CSP in MW System Load in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Average CSPHourly CSP System Load
135
In Aug 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of August 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWCSP in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly CSP Average CSP System Load
136
In Sep 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of September 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CSP in MW System Load in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
System LoadHourly CSP Average CSP
137
In Oct 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of October 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWCSP in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly CSP Average CSP System Load
138
In Nov 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of November 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CSP in MW System Load in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
System LoadHourly CSP Average CSP
139
In Dec 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of December 2020 & average system load diurnal course
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
System Load in MWCSP in MW500 MW
Capacity operational
Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Hourly CSP System LoadAverage CSP
140
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
10
15
0
20
5
35
25
30
System Load in GW
0.0
0.3
1.2
0.6
0.9
1.5
Power in GW
Peak-hour contribution ratio of solar PV was higher than a base-load plant in the morning, wind & CSP higher than base-load in evening peak
Notes: Morning and evening peak hours classified as per Eskom‘s 2020 Time of Use Tariff‘sSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
0.3
0.0
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
Power in GW
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
5
0
10
35
15
20
25
30
System Load in GW
Illustrative days showing the overlap of wind, solar PV, CSP and a base-load plant with the morning and evening peak hours
Wind
Wind, solar PV and CSP morning and evening peak-hour contribution ratios (for all hours from Jan-Dec 2020) show that:
• Wind contributes 7% more energy during the evening peaks than it does during the other hours of the day
• Solar PV contributes 47% more energy in the morning peaks than it does during the other hours of the day
• CSP contributes 51% more energy during the evening peaks than it does during the other hours of the day
0.83 1.07
= relative energy contribution during peak / relative total energy contribution
1.47 0.09
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.9
1.2
1.5
Power in GW
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
15
0
35
30
5
10
25
20
System Load in GW
0.85 1.51
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
5
0
10
35
30
15
20
25
System Load in GW
1.2
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.5
Power in GW
0.95 0.89
Peak-hour contribution ratio
Solar PV CSP Base-load plant
141
Jan - Dec 2020 system load and residual load duration curves
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 90000
5
20
15
10
25
30
35
40
Time in hours of the year (sorted)
Power in GW
System Load
Residual Load
Notes: Residual Load = System Load - wind - Solar PV - CSPSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
142
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 20000
25
5
10
15
20
30
35
40
Time in hours of the year (sorted)
Power in GW
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
From Jan-Dec 2020 - wind, solar PV & CSP reduced the number of hours
with > 30 GW total load from 492 to 151 (~341 hours less)
Wind, solar PV & CSP
reduced the peak
demand by ≈1.4 GW
System Load
Residual Load
Wind, solar PV & CSP reduced high demand
(> 30 GW) from 492 to 151 hours
(341 less hrs)
143
4
35
70 1 2 63 5 8 9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
40
‘000 hours per year (sorted)
Power in GW
System load for 2020 meant peaking type capacity of 5.0 GW, mid-merit
capacity of 6.2 GW, and base-load capacity of 22.9 GW
System Load
Peak-load(< 1 000 hrs/yr )
Mid-merit load(> 1 000 & < 6 000 hrs/yr)
Base-supply(> 6 000 hrs/yr)
34.2
5.0
6.2
System
22.9
Load Duration Curve for Jan to Dec 2020 as per actual data
Sources: CSIR Energy Centre analysis
144
30
5 60 91 2 73 4 8
0
5
10
15
25
20
35
40
Power in GW
‘000 hours per year (sorted)
System Load Residual Load
22.9
5.0
5.5
5.3
6.2
System
22.0
Residual
34.232.8
Load Duration Curve for Jan to Dec 2020 as per actual data
Wind/PV/CSP changes residual load shape - more peaking (+6%), notably less
mid-merit (-12%) and slightly less base-supply type capacity (-4%)
12.4 TWh of electricity supplied by wind, solar PV & CSP from Jan-Dec 2020
Sources: CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Peak-load(< 1 000 hrs/yr )
Mid-merit load(> 1 000 & < 6 000 hrs/yr)
Base-supply(> 6 000 hrs/yr)
145
1-hour gradients minimally affected by 5 GW of wind, solar PV & CSP
Notes: System and Residual load excludes pumping load for all data points throughout the year. 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑡 = 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑𝑡 – 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑡−1
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
• Max gradient of 3 498 MW on 23 Jan 2020
• Min gradient of -3 000 MW on 23 Jul 2020
• Max gradient of 3 514 MW on 12 Feb 2020
• Min gradient of -2 930 MW on 17 Aug 2020
Residual load = System load - Solar PV - Wind - CSP
Residual Load 1-hour-gradients Jan - Dec 2020
System Load 1-hour-gradients Jan - Dec 2020
146
1-hour gradients did not significantly increase due to 5 GW of wind, solar PV & CSP
Notes: System and Residual load excludes pumping load for all data points throughout the yearSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
System load 1-hour gradients vs. residual load 1-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2020
Cumulative frequency distribution of 1-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2020
147
3-hour gradients minimally affected by 5 GW of wind, solar PV & CSP
Notes: System and Residual load excludes pumping load for all data points throughout the year. 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑡 = 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑𝑡 – 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑡−1
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
• Max gradient of 7 094 MW on 16 Jun 2020
• Min gradient of -7 925 MW on 1 Sep 2020
• Max gradient of 7 053 MW on 25 Jul 2020
• Min gradient of -7 672 MW on 1 Sep 2020
Residual load = System load - Solar PV - Wind - CSP
Residual Load 3-hour-gradients Jan - Dec 2020
System Load 3-hour-gradients Jan - Dec 2020
148
Similarly - 3-hour gradients did not significantly increase due to 5 GW of wind, solar PV & CSP
Notes: System and Residual load excludes pumping load for all data points throughout the yearSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
System load 3-hour gradients vs. residual load 3-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2020
Cumulative frequency distribution of 3-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2020
149
Jan - Dec 2020 1-hour gradients of solar PV supply
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
150
Jan - Dec 2020: 1-hour gradients of wind supply
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
151
Jan - Dec 2020 1-hour gradients of CSP supply
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
152
Wind, solar PV & CSP frequency distribution of 1-hour gradients in 2019
and 2020
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2019 2020
2080 MW
1474 MWCapacity
operational(end of year)
500 MW
2495 MW
2032 MW
500 MW
Capacity operational(end of year)
153
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in January 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
60 71 432 175 8 9 10 11 12 13 1614 15 18 19 20 21 22 23
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1474 MW
Capacity operational
154
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in February 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
3 170 71 2 654 128 9 10 1611 13 2014 15 18 19 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1549 MW
Capacity operational
155
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in March 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
10 5 92 7 193 204 6 8 1510 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1699 MW
Capacity operational
156
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in April 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
620 31 74 5 138 169 10 11 2312 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 22
Time in hours of the day
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1774 MW
Capacity operational
157
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in May 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 4 181 146 152 3 75 8 9 10 1911 12 13 16 17 20 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1774 MW
Capacity operational
158
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in June 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
62 191770 1 3 54 8 9 1810 11 12 13 14 15 16 20 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1774 MW
Capacity operational
159
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in July 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
30 6 1051 2 4 117 178 9 12 13 14 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 23
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1814 MW
Capacity operational
160
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in August 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 70 4 52 3 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1814 MW
Capacity operational
161
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in September 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
7 140 61 2 5 133 4 8 9 1610 1211 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1957 MW
Capacity operational
162
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in October 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
72 60 51 3 4 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
1957 MW
Capacity operational
163
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in November 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
3 6 121 20 174 75 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 16 1918 20 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2032 MW
Capacity operational
164
Solar PV 1-hour gradients in December 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 5 2340 2 63 7 8 189 2110 11 2212 13 14 1715 16 19 20
Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2032 MW
Capacity operational
165
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
5 90 211 2 43 237 146 8 10 11 12 13 1615 17 18 19 20 22
Time in hours of the day
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Wind 1-hour gradients in January 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
Capacity operational
166
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
40 51 7 172 1863 8 149 10 11 12 2313 15 16 19 20 21 22
Time in hours of the day
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Wind 1-hour gradients in February 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
Capacity operational
167
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 6 171620 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Wind 1-hour gradients in March 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
Capacity operational
168
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 1 32 7 104 5 126 8 9 11 1413 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day
Wind 1-hour gradients in April 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
Capacity operational
169
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
5 70 1 32 64 8 219 10 1611 12 13 14 15 17 2318 19 20 22
Time in hours of the day
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Wind 1-hour gradients in May 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
Capacity operational
170
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 21 75 113 4 23146 8 9 10 12 13 15 16 2117 18 19 20 22
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day
Wind 1-hour gradients in June 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
Capacity operational
171
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
930 1 2 4 65 217 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Wind 1-hour gradients in July 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
Capacity operational
172
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1910 62 43 75 8 189 10 11 12 13 14 1715 16 20 21 22 23
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day
Wind 1-hour gradients in August 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
Capacity operational
173
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
6 70 1 2 43 5 198 9 1710 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 20 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Wind 1-hour gradients in September 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2080 MW
Capacity operational
174
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
6 1930 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 10 2111 12 2213 2314 15 1816 17 20
Time in hours of the day
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Wind 1-hour gradients in October 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2188 MW
Capacity operational
175
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
2220 1 3 4 105 76 8 21149 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 23
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day
Wind 1-hour gradients in November 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2463 MW
Capacity operational
176
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
70 136 1621 3 4 5 238 9 10 2211 12 14 1915 17 18 20 21
Time in hours of the day
Wind hourly gradients in MW/h
Wind 1-hour gradients in December 2020
Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2463 MW
Capacity operational
177
CSP 1-hour gradients in January 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
8 160 1 2 143 4 215 126 7 9 10 11 13 15 17 18 19 20 22 23
Time in hours of the day
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
178
CSP 1-hour gradients in February 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 41 2 2173 1665 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 2318 19 20 22
Time in hours of the day
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
179
CSP 1-hour gradients in March 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
7 230 1 2 6 2153 4 14138 9 2010 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 22
Time in hours of the day
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
180
CSP 1-hour gradients in April 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1330 41 7 212 95 6 108 1811 12 14 15 16 17 19 20 22 23
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
181
CSP 1-hour gradients in May 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
4 2210210 3 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 2116 17 18 19 20 23
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
182
CSP 1-hour gradients in June 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
5 7 100 1 3 62 4 8 18169 11 12 13 14 1715 19 20 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
183
CSP 1-hour gradients in July 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
4 1520 2051 73 6 8 109 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 21 22 23
Time in hours of the day
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
184
CSP 1-hour gradients in August 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 1 2 43 7 185 6 8 9 2310 11 1712 13 14 15 16 19 20 21 22
Time in hours of the day
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
185
CSP 1-hour gradients in September 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 31 2 20764 215 108 9 11 12 1413 15 16 17 18 19 22 23
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
186
CSP 1-hour gradients in October 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
19162 21100 1 3 64 75 8 189 11 12 13 14 15 17 20 22 23
Time in hours of the day
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
187
CSP 1-hour gradients in November 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
19151220 1 43 5 7 206 8 9 10 1611 13 14 17 18 21 22 23
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Time in hours of the day
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
188
CSP 1-hour gradients in December 2020
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
2320103 50 1 72 4 6 138 9 11 12 1614 15 17 18 19 21 22
Time in hours of the day
CSP hourly gradients in MW/h
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr
Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr
500 MW
Capacity operational
Other power system statistics7
Actual load shedding in 20206
Hourly electricity production (2020)5
Daily electricity production (2020)4
Weekly electricity production (2020)3
Monthly electricity production (2020)2
Overview actual electricity production (2020)1
Agenda
190Notes: Loadshedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally change/ end during a
particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW, Stage 5 = 5 000 MW, Stage 6 = 6 000 MW;
Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); Nersa; CSIR analysis
1 400
0
800
400
1 800
1 600
600
200
1 000
1 200
2 000
2019
43
30
2017
1 325
1 798
176
568
192
141
2015
13080
Load shed, upper-limit [GWh]
2007 2008
93
201420122009 2010 2011 2013
123
45
874
406
2016 2020
62
2018
618
332
1 192
133
476
203
1 352
Unknown Stage 5Stage 6 Stage 1Stage 4 Stage 3 Stage 2
Year
2007
2008
….
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Duration
of outages
(hours)
-
-
.…
121
852
-
-
127
530
859
Energy
shed
(GWh)
176
476
.…
203
1325
-
-
192
1352
1798
2020 seemingly the most intensive loadshedding year yet –calculated
based on upper limit of loadshedding (as in previous publications)
191Notes: Loadshedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally change/ end during a
particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW, Stage 5 = 5 000 MW, Stage 6 = 6 000 MW;
Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); Nersa; CSIR analysis
600
1 200
800
1 000
2 000
400
0
1 400
200
1 800
1 600
Load shed, upper-limit [GWh]
192
203
1 798
1 325
1 332
Cumulative build-up of loadshedding 2015-2020 (as in previous
publications)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
192
Notes: Loadshedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may
occassionally change/ end during a particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000
MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW, Stage 5 = 5 000 MW, Stage 6 = 6 000 MW;
Cost to the economy of load shedding is estimated using COUE (cost of unserved energy) = 87.50 R/kWh
Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); Nersa; CSIR analysis
450
300
0
500
350
50
200
100
400
150
550
250
308
248
10
Feb-20
42
432
Nov-20
Monthly load shed, upper-limit[GWh]
158
Jun-20
118
353
17 36
Jan-20
325
72
2833
27
42
36
44
Mar-20 Dec-20May-20Apr-20
537
Jul-20
233
Oct-20
84
144
Aug-20
32
Sep-20
168
36 28
Loadshedding to March halted after COVID-19 lockdown but returned by
winter and remained for most of H2-2020
Stage 6
Stage 3
Stage 4 Stage 2
Stage 5 Stage 1
0
200
400
600
800
1 800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 192
2020
Annual loadshedding (upper limit)[GWh]
1 798
141
332
133
193
Hourly distribution of loadshedding Jan – Jun 2020
Day 1
Day 31
No load shedding
Notes: Load shedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally change/ end during a
particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW, Stage 5 = 5 000 MW, Stage 6 = 6 000 MW
Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); CSIR analysis
January February March
0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00
April May June
0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
194
Hourly distribution of loadshedding Jul – Dec 2020
No load shedding
Notes: Load shedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally change/ end during a
particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW, Stage 5 = 5 000 MW, Stage 6 = 6 000 MW
Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); CSIR analysis
July August September
0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00
October November December
0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000
Day 1
Day 31
195
4.5
4.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
0.5
5.5
1.5
2.5
3.0
3.5
7.0
6.0
5.0
6.5
GW
25
20
5
0
30
10
15
35
GW
Demonstration of MLR relative to announced loadshedding
reveals what is achieved from MLR interventions
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
Stage 4
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3 Stage 5
Stage 6
Residual demand (RHS)
MLR - achieved (LHS)
System demand (RHS)
Example week (30/08/2020 – 05/09/2030)
196Notes:Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS); Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis
100
350
300
0
200
250
400
150
450
50
500
550
8
Apr-20
15
Aug-20
3
Mar-20
6
Oct-20
9 2
May-20
6
111129
4
Jan-20
4
418
15 1345
Feb-20
438
249
10
227
1 6 144
Jun-20
5
Jul-20
34 2
Sep-20
111
Nov-20 Dec-20
148
262
79
13
129111
238
11
50
Monthly demand side response (DSR)[GWh]
1053010
Actual demand side response (DSR) in 2020 reveals how actual MLR
(loadshedding) dominates over other DSR
Manual Load Reduction (MLR) i.e. loadshedding
Interruption of Supply (IOS)
Interruptible load supply (ILS)
200
1 200
600
1 000
0
800
400
1 400
1 600
1 800
Annual DSR [GWh]
111(8%)
1 269(89%)
45(3%)
2020
1 426
197Notes:Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS); Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis
Similarly - actual demand side response (DSR) in 2020 was ~70% of
announced levels of loadshedding
1 000
1 800
0
400
200
600
800
1 200
1 400
1 600
Annual loadshedding (upper limit)[GWh]
332
141
1 192
133
2020
1 798
Stage 4Stage 6
Stage 3Stage 5
Stage 2
Stage 1
800
200
0
400
600
1 000
1 200
1 600
1 400
1 800
2020
Annual DSR [GWh]
1 269
Load Shedding (Manual Load Reduction)
Other power system statistics7
Actual load shedding in 20206
Hourly electricity production (2020)5
Daily electricity production (2020)4
Weekly electricity production (2020)3
Monthly electricity production (2020)2
Overview actual electricity production (2020)1
Agenda
199
Lockdown in South Africa had a significant impact on
electricity demand
Notes: Residual is demand excluding variable renewables.
Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis
200
Up to 11 GW (L5) and 8.5 GW (L4) deviation whilst returning
quickly back to ‘normal’ under Level 2 and Level 1 of lockdown
(& 2nd Level 3)
Notes: Residual is demand excluding variable renewables.
Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis
201
Under Level 5 – Peak demand dropped from expected 31.2 GW to
27.4 GW (-3.8 GW) whilst minimum demand dropped to 13.8 GW
Level 5 (35 days)
Notes: Residual is demand excluding variable renewables.
Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis
202
Under Level 4 of lockdown – Peak demand dropped from
expected 33.6 GW to 30.7 GW (-3.1 GW), morning peak shifted
notably
Level 4 (31 days)
Notes: Residual is demand excluding variable renewables.
Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis
203
Under Level 3 of lockdown – demand returning back to ‘normal’
in scale with loadshedding returning (10-16 Jul., 13-14 Aug.)
Level 3 (80 days)
Notes: Residual is demand excluding variable renewables.
Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis
204
Under Level 2 of lockdown – demand back to
‘normal’ with loadshedding returning
(18-20 Aug., 1-8 Sept.)
Notes: Residual is demand excluding variable renewables.
Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis
Level 2 (35 days)
205
Under Level 1 of lockdown – no loadshedding was seen
Notes: Residual is demand excluding variable renewables.
Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis
Level 2 (35 days)
206
1 500
1 000
0
2 000
3 000
4 000
500
2 500
3 500
4 500
5 000
30 31 33 34
946(22.5%)
35 36 37
693(17.0%)
38 392 41 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 531 5 42
Week number
243 266 189 291510 25
Weekly residual demand [GWh]
4 7 8 11 12 13 14 16 17 40
1 026(24.3%)
19
457(10.7%)
976(24.0%)
1 007(24.5%)
20 21 2322 27 28 32
For 2020 – primarily driven by Covid-19 lockdown, residual
energy demand reduced by ~13 TWh (-5.7%) relative to
expectations at the beginning of 2020
Notes: Week 1 and 53 not full weeks
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
100
25
50
75
200
225
250
175
150
125
0Forecast
(W1)Forecast
(W53)
13
Annual residual demand[TWh]
Deviation
221
208
-5.7%
Forecast (W53)DeviationForecast (W1)
207
80
0
20
40
60
100
50
10
30
70
90
110
16 183 422322
Plant performance (weekly)
[%]
51 2 24 26 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 43 44 45 46 47 4820 50 51 52 532714
Week number
19159 21 251312111087 1764 49
Eskom fleet performance for 2020 (weekly) reveals overall EAF of 65%
comprising planned maintenance of 11.2%, unplanned of 20.9% & other
at 2.8%
NOTES: EAF - Energy Availability Factor; PCLF - Planned capability Loss Factor; UCLF – Unplanned Capability Loss Factor; OCLF – Other Capability Loss FactorSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
EAFOCLF UCLF PCLF
208
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000
60
0
55
85
70
90
65
95
80
100
75
52.0%
Hour
EAF (hourly)[%]
79.0%
Eskom fleet EAF for 2020 (hourly) exhibits similar seasonality as in
other years but with notably higher levels at start of Covid-19 lockdown
NOTES: EAF - Energy Availability FactorSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2020: 65.0%
209
1-Jan-18 1-Jul-201-Jan-20
65
1-Jan-19
60
1-Jul-17
80
1-Jul-16
0
70
75
1-Jan-17
95
85
90
1-Jan-16 1-Jan-21
100
1-Jul-18 1-Jul-19
EAF (weekly)[%]
Declining EAF tend continues for the year 2020 to an average EAF 65%
NOTES: EAF - Energy Availability FactorSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
2016: 76.4% 2017: 78.7% 2018: 71.9% 2019: 66.9% 2020: 65.0%
Thank you
211
References
Eskom Holdings SOC Limited (2020), Eskom Data Portal, https://www.eskom.co.za/sites/publicdata/
Eskom Holdings SOC Limited. (2020). Integrated Report 2020.
https://www.eskom.co.za/IR2020/Documents/Eskom 2020 integrated report_secured.pdf
Eskom Holdings SOC Limited (2021), Official Twitter Account Announcements, https://twitter.com/Eskom_SA
top related