stanford gmf that never was...the grand strategy that never was the global maritime fulcrum in the...

THE GRAND STRATEGY THAT NEVER WAST H E G L O B A L MA R I T I ME F U L C RU M I N T H E S E C O ND J O KOW I A D MI N I S T R AT I O N

Southeast Asia Forum, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center

Stanford University, November 5, 2019

Evan A. LaksmanaSenior researcher, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta, Indonesia

https://www.evanlaksmana.com | @EvanLaksmana | evan.laksmana@csis.or.id

OUTLINE

• The Global Maritime Fulcrum and Sea Policy

• Failure to launch?

• Jokowi’s re-election and second term

• Foreign and defense policies

• Broader implications

• Formulated as a campaign platform, not a years-in-the-making strategy document

• Formally launched at the beginning of the admin

• Have both internal (domestic) and external (foreign) elements

• Tailored for Indonesia as as archipelagic state

• Needs the bureaucratic push and a central hub to manage and implement

GRAND STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK

IMPLEMENTING DOCUMENT

• Inter-agency process

• Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs

• Codified the GMF as part of legal policy system

DIVIDING THE CAKE

• No single authority to coral all the agencies/ministries

• Taken from pre-existing programs from each agency/ministry

• No timeline or resources devoted

FAILURE TO LAUNCH?

Idiosyncratic

Domestic politics

Bureaucratic politics

Threat diversity

• Lack of personal investment and instinct on defense, foreign or maritime policies

• Inability to expand close circle

• Leader of no political party• Re-election : infrastructure and social welfare• Severe polarization to 2019 elections

• Maritime governance chaos• No National Security Council• Did not choose foreign and defense ministers

• Internal security challenges• US-China competition• Maritime security through domestic lens

• “Global Maritime Fulcrum” no more?

• Double down on domestic agenda

• Even less geopolitics and less foreign policy profile

SECOND JOKOWI ADMIN FOCUS

NEW CABINET

• Accommodate rival Prabowo Subianto and Gerindra

• Foreign minister continues

• Civil-military balance

• Fisheries minister gone

• No structural change on policy management

FOREIGN POLICY

• Retno Marsudi stays on, backed by new Vice Minister Mahendra Siregar (Ambassador to US) to focus on economic diplomacy

• Low-key and domestically-appealing issues

• Personal rapport with Jokowi improved but policy performance not there yet

• Multilateral faith continues, as will the lack of independent capability to shape the region

• Buck-passing regional leadership

• Defense minister

• Prabowo Subianto

• Military Commander• Hadi Tjahjanto

• Coordinating Ministry for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs

• Mahfud MD

• National Legislature’s Commission 1• Headed by Golkar’s

Meutya Hafid withBambang Kristiono as one of the deputies

DEFENSE POLICY?

IMPLICATIONS

• The death of the Global Maritime Fulcrum and ”grand strategy”?

• Indo-Pacific• Underwhelming foreign policy but assertive defense policy

• Brittle civil-military relations and domestic politics (2024 paramount)

• ASEAN centrality affirmed

• Balancing protectionism, bureaucratic reform, and int. trade commitments (RCEP, IA-CPA, and others)

• Democracy taken for granted?

THANK YOU FOR TIME AND I LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR QUESTIONS