stage 3 the final push. learning objectives examine the 2008 election in the broader context of...

Stage 3

The Final Push

Learning Objectives

• Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history

• Discuss the strategy of presidential campaigns

McCain’s Brief Moment

The One Ad• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_vVN0UwUyo

• People began Questioning Obama’s Ability to lead and his experience

• The Palin Rollout– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psyo4JDbJJ4

Obama Advantages

• Financial resources

• The Primary

• The Map

9/14 Global Financial Crisis

• Largest economic Crisis in 70 years

• Too many subprime mortgages are issued, and sold as investments

• The Dow Tumbles, confidence in markets crumbles

Fallout of 9/14

• Lehman Brothers

• Declares Chapter 11

• Holds too many mortgaged backed securities

Fallout of 9/14

• Merrill Lynch collapses

Fallout of 9/14

• American International Group (AIG)

• Gets an emergency loan of 5 million dollars

Policy Reaction

• President Bush offers upwards of 700 Billion bailout plan

• Congress Must Pass it

• McCain Suspends the campaign

Mistakes and Damage Control

• McCain makes the defining statement of the election– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSBs0tBVrHk

• McCain on Letterman– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ARI1fgHEBc

• Obama stays above the fray

Political Fallout from 9/14

• McCain changes strategy

• Obama benefits

Presidential Debates

• History

• General Strategies

Presidential Debates

• Who it Helps

• Who it Hurts

Presidential Debates

• Who Wins (whomever is leading in the polls)

• Does it matter

Presidential Debates

• Do Not Make Mistakes• What don't you want to do?

– The 1960 Debate– Look ancient– Seem heartless– You are no Jack Kennedy– Eastern Europe is Free And again– The Global Test– Adm. James Stockdale

• Blind , Deaf, Dumb

The Phillies Win Oct 30th

• First World Series since 1980

• Second in my lifetime

• Second in the history of the Franchise

The First Debate

• Would McCain Show up?– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKeISsYKROI

• Podium Format• Obama Strategy

• No Game Changer

The Vice Presidential Debate

• Most heavily watched debate

• Not very exciting

• Not a game changer

The Second Presidential Debate

• The Nixon-Kennedy Myth

• Town Hall format

• No game changer

The Third Debate

• No Game Changer either

• The Candidates leading in the polls reflected the winners of each debates

The End Game

• Obama Leads McCain by 6-7 points

• No Good news for the Republican Party

• Two Joes make it interesting– Plumber- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7wlDtfs1AM

– Biden- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpiNfuG8YY8

The End Game

• McCain pulls out of Michigan

• McCain has to go negative

• Obama stays on message

Did the Campaign Matter?• It was the Democrat’s Campaign to lose

• Obama used overwhelming financial resources

• Obama played a very safe campaign, which he needed to do. (McCain=Bush, Change)