spring 2017 propensity update - jamrs§mail-based survey fielded from december 30, 2016, to june 26,...
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Spring 2017 Propensity Update
Public ReleaseJanuary 2018
1
Youth Poll: Propensity
12%12%
15%13%
15%16%
15%14%
15%14%
10%9% 9%
11%13% 12%
13%12%13%12%12%
13%14%13%
14%15%14%
15%14%
12%13%14%
12%13% 13%
14%
18%15%
23%
19%
22%23%
20% 22%21% 21%
14%13%12%
15%17%
15%17% 16%
18%17%
18%18%20% 19%19%
21%19%
22%
19%17%17%
19%17%
16%17%
19%
6%
9%7%
8% 8%10%
9%7%
8%7%
6%4% 4%
6%
10% 9%8% 8%
7% 7%5%
8% 8%7%
9% 8% 8% 8% 8%7%
9% 8%7%
10%8%8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Nov-02
Jun-03
Nov-03
May-04
Nov-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Summer-12
Fall-12
Spring-13
Summer-13
Fall-13
Spring-14
Summer-14
Fall-14
Spring-15
Summer-15
Fall-15
Spring-16
Summer-16
Fall-16
Spring-17
Aggregate Male Female
2
FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
General Military Propensity By Gender
% Definitely/Probably
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
One year earlier
Source: Department of Defense Youth Polls
= Significantly change from previous poll
23%
17%
12%11%
9%8%
4%
8%9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Department of Defense Youth Poll (Spring 2017)
Note: Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
% Definitely/Probably
Age
3
General Military Propensity By Age
FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
10%9%
12%10%
12%13%
11%
12%
12%11%
9%8%
7%8%
12%10%
11%
10%10%10%
9%10%
11%10%10%
10%
11%
11%11%
9%10%11%
10%
9% 9%11%
16%17%
14%15%
16%
21%
16%
11%
15%16%
9%
9%10%
13%16%
15%15%
15%
18%17%17%
23%22%
19%
21%
27%
18%
22%
16%
21%20%20%19%
21%
18%19%
14%
20%
27%
24%25%25%
27%
22%20%
25%
14%
11%13%
16%16%16%16%
15%15%14%16% 15%
18%
18%
18%19%
18%
21%
17%15%15%
17%
14%16%
15% 18%
8%10%
11%11%
10%10%8%
13%
8%7%
18%
12%10%
14%
5%
12% 11%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Nov-02
Jun-0
3
Nov-03
May-0
4
Nov-04
Jun-0
5
Dec-0
5
Jun-0
6
Jun-0
7
Dec-0
7
Jun-0
8
Dec-0
8
Jun-0
9
Dec-0
9
Jun-1
0
Dec-1
0
Jun-1
1
Dec-1
1
Summ
er-1
2
Fall-1
2
Spring-1
3
Summ
er-1
3
Fall-1
3
Spring-1
4
Summ
er-1
4
Fall-1
4
Spring-1
5
Summ
er-1
5
Fall-1
5
Spring-1
6
Summ
er-1
6
Fall-1
6
Spring-1
7
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source: Department of Defense Youth Polls
FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
% Definitely/Probably One year earlier
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
General Military Propensity By Race/Ethnicity
Note: Estimates for Black and Asian youth should be interpreted with caution because of relatively large margins of error.
= Significantly change from previous poll
4
7%
7%
10%
9% 10%
11%10%
10% 10%
11%
6% 6%
6%
7%
8%
8%7% 8%
7% 7%
7%8% 8%
8%
9%
10%
8%
9%
9%
8%
8%
9%
8%
9%8%
8%
7%7%
9%
7%
9%
9%8% 8%
8%
10%
5%
5%
4%
7%
8%
7%
9%
7% 7% 7%6%
7%
7%
8%8%
9%
8%
10%
9%
8%8% 8%
7%
8% 8%
7%
9%
7%
9%
10% 10%
11%11%
10%11% 10%
7%
8%
7%
8%
9%9%
8%8% 8% 8% 8%
9%9% 9%
9%
10%9%
10%
9%9% 9%
8%9%
9%8% 9%
6%6%
8% 8% 8%
10%
7%8%
8%9%
6%
5%
6% 7%8%
7%
7%7%
7% 7%
7% 6%7% 7%
7%8%
7%
8%8%
8%7% 7%
6%
7% 6%
6%
4%
5% 6% 6% 6% 6%6%
6%
7%
6%
4%5%
4%
5%6% 6%
5% 5% 5%5% 4%
4%
5% 5%5%
6%
5%
6%
5%
4%4%
5%
4%
5%4% 5%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
Apr-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Nov-02
Jun-03
Nov-03
May-04
Nov-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Summer-12
Fall-12
Spring-13
Summer-13
Fall-13
Spring-14
Summer-14
Fall-14
Spring-15
Summer-15
Fall-15
Spring-16
Summer-16
Fall-16
Spring-17
Army Navy Air Force Marine Corps Coast Guard
Source: Department of Defense Youth Polls
FPP10A_Q–FPP10E_Q: In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in each of the following Military Services?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
% Definitely/Probably
Active Duty Propensity by Service
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
One year earlier
= Significantly change from previous poll
5
6
Youth Poll: Economic Conditions
20% 22% 22%28%
30% 31% 31% 32%29% 29%
23% 23% 24%29%
37%
47%
51% 52%57%
52% 53% 52%
47%
45%
47% 46% 45% 43% 42%37% 37%
35% 35% 34% 32% 32%
79%76%77%
71% 69% 68% 67% 66%67% 67%
74% 74% 73%
66%
59%
48%
45%44%41%
46% 44%47%
50%52%
50% 52% 53% 55% 55%60% 61%
63% 62% 64% 66% 66%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Apr-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Nov-02
Jun-0
3
Nov-03
May-0
4
Nov-04
Jun-0
5
Dec-0
5
Jun-0
6
Jun-0
7
Dec-0
7
Jun-0
8
Dec-0
8
Jun-0
9
Dec-0
9
Jun-1
0
Dec-1
0
Jun-1
1
Dec-1
1
Summ
er-1
2
Fall-1
2
Spring-1
3
Summ
er-1
3
Fall-1
3
Spring-1
4
Summ
er-1
4
Fall-1
4
Spring-1
5
Summ
er-1
5
Fall-1
5
Spring-1
6
Summ
er-1
6
Fall-1
6
Spring-1
7
Very Difficult/Impossible Somewhat/Not At All Difficult
§ As the economy has improved over the last few years, the proportion of youth who agree that it is very difficult or impossible to get a full-time job in their community has trended downward.
EMP5: “How difficult is it for someone your age to get a full-time job in your community?”
U.S. Military and Economic ConditionsDifficulty of Finding a Job
Source: Department of Defense Youth Polls
How difficult is it for someone your age to get a full-time job in your community?
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
= Significantly change from previous poll
7
8
18%19% 20%
27%29%
29%
30%
30%27%
29%
22% 22%23%26%
37%
48% 50%
52%
54%51%52%
49%
45%
44% 45%44%
44%
41%
41%
35%
35%
35%
33%31%
29% 31%
24%
31%
28%
36%38%
41% 41%43%
35%30% 34% 33% 33%
41% 41%
48% 51%
54%
64%
56%61%
59%55%
54%56%
50% 47%49%
50% 49%47%
37%38%
44%
36%40%
23%
31%
22%
25%27%
30%
30%
29%
31%
28%
22% 20% 20%
29% 34%
50%
50%48%
60%
51%
53%53%
49%
43%
48%
43%
45%
44%40%
39%36%
34%
38%
35% 35%
30%
48%
44%
48%47%
34%
40%42%
43%
31%
43%
33%
27%
31%
22%
31%29% 27%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Nov-02
Jun-03
Nov-03
May-04
Nov-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Summer-12
Fall-12
Spring-13
Summer-13
Fall-13
Spring-14
Summer-14
Fall-14
Spring-15
Summer-15
Fall-15
Spring-16
Summer-16
Fall-16
Spring-17
White Black Hispanic Asian
§ The proportion of youth who reported that it is very difficult or impossible to get a full-time job remained statistically unchanged by race/ethnicity from Fall 2016 to Spring 2017.
Note: Estimates for Black and Asian youth should be interpreted with caution because of relatively large margins of error.EMP5: “How difficult is it for someone your age to get a full-time job in your community?”
U.S. Military and Economic ConditionsDifficulty of Finding a Job by Race/Ethnicity
Source: Department of Defense Youth Polls
% Very Difficult/Impossible
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
= Significantly change from previous poll
Backup
9
§ Mail-based survey fielded from December 30, 2016, to June 26, 2017.• A series of five mailings were sent to eight different cohorts semimonthly that invited recipients to participate.
§ Final Youth Poll Sample: 6,544 youth aged 16 through 24• 5,188 youth aged 16 through 21 – the metrics presented herein focus on this age group.• 1,356 youth aged 22 through 24
§ Weighted to reflect general population on several dimensions:• Gender• Age • Race/Ethnicity• Educational Attainment• Region
§ Stratified Random Sample
§ Note: Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
§ Note: Certain slides provide estimates by race/ethnicity. • The December 2010 effort was the first Youth Poll with a sufficiently large sample size to report estimates for
Asian youth. Asian estimates are included only at the overall level and not by gender because of sample size restrictions. The effective sample size for Asian youth is small and results should be interpreted cautiously.
Source: Department of Defense Spring 2017 Youth Poll
Youth Poll Methodology and Sample
10
17%16%
18%18%18%18%
16%17%
13%
14%14%15%14%14%14%
15%
12%12%
15%
13%
15%16%
15%14%
15%14%
10%9% 9%
11%
13%12%
13%12%
13%12%12%13%
14%13%
14%15%
14%
15%
14%12%13%
14%
12%13%
13%
14%
24%
24%
26% 26%26%27%
23%
24%
19%
20%19%20%
18% 18%
18%
20%
18%
15%
23%
19%
22%23%
20%
22%21% 21%
14%
13% 12%
15%
17%
15%
17%
16%
18%17%
18%
18%
20%
19%
19%
21%
19%
22%
19%
17%
17%
19%
17%
16%
17%19%
10%9%
10%11%
10%10%9%10%
7%
9% 9%10%10%
8%9%
10%
6%
9%
7%8% 8%
10%9%
7%8%
7%6%
4% 4%
6%
10%9%
8%8%7% 7%
5%
8%8%
7%
9%8% 8% 8% 8%7%
9% 8%7%
10%
8% 8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Apr-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Nov-02
Jun-03
Nov-03
May-04
Nov-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Summer-12
Fall-12
Spring-13
Summer-13
Fall-13
Spring-14
Summer-14
Fall-14
Spring-15
Summer-15
Fall-15
Spring-16
Summer-16
Fall-16
Spring-17
Aggregate Male Female
Source: Department of Defense YATS and Youth Polls
Historical General Military PropensityBy Gender
FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
% Definitely/Probably
Questions: YATS (Q503)–Jun-10 (FPP9): “Now, I'd like to ask you how likely it is that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years? Dec-10–Spring-17 (FPP9): “How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?”
11
12
2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3%2% 1%2% 2%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
9% 10%12%11%12%13%12%11%11%12%
8% 7% 7%9% 10% 9% 10% 9% 10% 9% 9% 10%10% 9% 10%11%10%11%11%
9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 9% 10%
26%29%
33%31%31%31%
32%31%31%31%29%30%29%
27%31% 31%
29%28%28%29%29%30%31%31%32%31%30%31%
33%33%32%35%
33%35%
32% 31%
61%59%
52%56%
54%53%53%54%54%54%
61% 61%62%61%
55% 56%58%
59%59%58%58%56%55%56%54%54%
56%53%53%54%55%
51%55%
52%55% 55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Apr-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Nov-02
Jun-0
3
Nov-03
May
-04
Nov-04
Jun-0
5
Dec-0
5
Jun-0
6
Jun-0
7
Dec-0
7
Jun-0
8
Dec-0
8
Jun-0
9
Dec-0
9
Jun-1
0
Dec-1
0
Jun-1
1
Dec-1
1
Summ
er-1
2
Fall-1
2
Spring-1
3
Summ
er-1
3
Fall-1
3
Spring-1
4
Summ
er-1
4
Fall-1
4
Spring-1
5
Summ
er-1
5
Fall-1
5
Spring-1
6
Summ
er-1
6
Fall-1
6
Spring-1
7
Definitely Probably Probably not Definitely not
FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
General Military Propensity
Source: Department of Defense Youth Polls
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
= Significantly change from previous poll
Reasons to Join
27%
27%
28%
30%
32%
38%
41%
44%
45%
49%
Provides future job opportunities
Pride/self-esteem/honor
It is my duty/obligation to my country
Experience adventure
Health and medical benefits
Gain experience/work skills
To help others
Pay/money
Travel
To pay for future education
RTJ: if you were to consider joining the U.S. Military, what would be the main reason(s)? Response options: Yes, multiple response
Top 10 Reasons
Source: Department of Defense Youth Poll (Spring 2017)
Note: Youth ages 16–21.
13
27%
27%
27%
28%
29%
32%
43%
51%
53%
65%
Required to live in places I don't want to
Don't believe I would qualify
Don't want to be deployed overseas
Family obligations
Dislike of military lifestyle
Possibility of interference with college education
Other careeer interests
Leaving family and friends
Possibility of PTSD or other emotional/psych issues
Possibility of physical injury/death
RNTJ: What would be the main reason(s) why you would NOT consider joining the U.S. Military?Response options: Yes, multiple response
Top 10 Reasons
Source: Department of Defense Youth Poll (Spring 2017)
Note: Youth ages 16–21.
Reasons Not to Join
14
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