southern california water dialogue may 25, 2016...• 29 contractors • metropolitan largest (1.9...

Southern California Water Dialogue May 25, 2016

5,200 Square Miles

4 MAF Annual Demand

19 Million People

26 Member Agencies

Water Wholesaler

MWD Service Area

Imported Supplies

Local Supplies

Lake Mead

Upper Colorado

River Basin

Colorado River

• Annual aqueduct capacity: 1.25 MAF

• 242 miles of aqueduct

• 550 TAF basic apportionment

Lake Powell

Colorado River Aqueduct

Whitsett Intake

Range of Deliveries past 15 years:

0.44 – 1.25 MAF

San Luis Reservoir

Lake Oroville Sacramento River

• Total Contract Supplies: 4.2 MAF • 29 Contractors

• Metropolitan largest (1.9 MAF)

Feather River

Bay Delta San Joaquin

River

California Aqueduct

Banks Pumping Plant

Range of deliveries to MWD past 15 years:

0.6 – 1.8 MAF

0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

Mill

ion

Acre

-Fee

t

Oroville Storage

910111213141516

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

Mill

ion

Acre

-Fee

t

Lake Mead Storage

Lowest since 1977

Lowest since 1937 Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times

0369

121518

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Runo

ff (M

AF)

05

101520253035

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Runo

ff (M

AF)

18.26 MAF

Northern Sierra Actual Average

10.83 MAF

Below Average Runoff 8 out of last 10 years

Below Average Runoff 13 out of last 16 years

Lake Powell

Upper Colorado

Lake Oroville

Lake Shasta

April 1, 2015 Randall Benton / Sacramento Bee

Randall Benton / Sacramento Bee

? Cooler & Wetter

Wet

Dry

Warmer

Mild

Increased Hurricane

Activity

Decreased Hurricane

Activity

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Dep

artu

re fr

om N

orm

al ˚C

1997-1998

Very Strong El Niño

2015-2016

Southern California is much drier than average Northern California is wetter than average

Percent of Average Precipitation (%) 10/1/2015 – 5/22/2016

WATER YEAR

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Initial allocation on December 1

Lake Oroville San Luis Reservoir

Projected Dry Hydrologic Conditions

+ +

Initial allocation on December 1

WATER YEAR

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Mostly falls October through April

50 inches

average

56.5 inches Average

to date

WATER YEAR

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Supported by Developing Hydrologic Conditions

10% initial

15% 30%

45% 60%

No further increases expected

WATER YEAR

Usually peaks in early April

29 inches

average 4/1

Apr. 1 avg

Last year

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Maximum Capacity 3.5 MAF

WATER YEAR

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Record Low Storage – Sep 1977

Last year

This year

Average Storage

Flood releases end of March 2016

Improved Starting

Conditions for 2017

WATER YEAR

Distributed throughout the year 31

inches average

23.6 inches

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Average to date

WATER YEAR

Usually accumulates through March 16

inches average 4/1

Apr. 1 avg

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

WATER YEAR

USBR’s August forecast determines Mead and Powell operations for upcoming calendar year USBR’s April forecast can result in modified reservoir operations for current calendar year

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP CALENDAR YEAR

End of Year Storage in Lake Mead

1,075’

USBR April Forecast of Lake Mead Elevation

2016 2017 1,050’

1,100’

1,125’

1,075’ Shortage Trigger

Actual

Most Probable

End of CY 2016 1,078.8 ft End of CY 2017

1,074.1 ft

10% Chance of Shortage in 2017

56% Chance of Shortage in 2018

Supplies Demands

Supplies Demands

250

350

450

550TAF DVL Storage

2014 2015 2016

Frank Bellino / Press Enterprise

Castaic Lake

50

150

250TAF

Castaic Lake Storage

2014 2015 2016

2.2 1.8 1.1 1.0

1.7 2.4 2.7 2.3

1.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

Acre

-Fee

t

Emergency Storage Dry-Year Storage

End of Year Balances

0.9

1.1- 1.5-

Improved hydrologic conditions in northern CA SWP reservoirs filling and allocation increased 2017 starting conditions improved Metropolitan will add to storage in 2016

Regional call for conservation through drought ordinances and other measures One normal hydrologic year will not end drought

Drought severity has reduced Need for continued conservation practices