southeast asia from the corner of 18th & k streets of indonesia, while the philippines came in...

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Southeast AsiaProgram

Volume II | Issue 21 | December 7, 2011

Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets

Mixed Results for Corruption Fight in Indonesiamurray hiebert

Inside This Issue

the week that was

looking ahead

December 7, 2011

Murray Hiebert is senior fellow and deputy director of the Southeast Asia Program and Pacific Partners Initiative at the Center for Strate-gic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Inside This Issue

the week that was

• ClintonmakeslandmarkMyanmarvisit

• IndonesianarmyandpoliceclashwithPapuanprotesters

• 2011CorruptionPerceptionIndexrevealsmixedresultsforASEAN

looking ahead

• ForumonIndonesia’schangingelectoralsystematUSINDO

• LectureonfreetradewithAustralia’sshadowtreasurer

• ScreeningofTheLadyatAsiaSociety

TransparencyInternationalgaveIndonesiaanotherpoorgradeonDecember1inthecountry’sbattleagainstcorruption.Indonesiascored3outofapossible10(thecleanestscore)inTransparency’sannualCorruptionsPerceptionIndex(CPI),aslightimprovementfrom2.8lastyear.Italsoranked100(animprovementfrom110lastyear)amongthe183countriessurveyed.TheresultshighlightedawidespreadperceptioninIndonesiathatthegovernmentisnotdoingenoughinitseffortstotacklecorruption.

SeveralASEANcountriesscoredlowerthanIndonesiaontheCPI,whichiscloselywatchedbyforeigninvestors,economists,andcivilsocietygroups.Vietnamgotascoreof2.9(outof10),justbelowthatofIndonesia,whilethePhilippinescameinat2.6,despitethecampaignmountedbyPresidentBenignoAquinototacklecorruption.Singaporegotthebestscoreintheregionwith9.2.

ThedayaftertheCPIwasreleased,theIndonesianparliamentrevampedthecountry’sCorruptionEradicationCommission,popularlyknownastheKPKforitsIndonesianinitials,butthenewlineupgotmixedreviews.BusyroMuqoddaswasremovedasheadoftheKPK,apparentlybecausehewasanoutspokencriticofcorruptionandcourageousinhispursuitofcorruptofficials,buthekepthisseatonthecommission.HewasreplacedasheadoftheKPKbyarelativelyunknownlawyer,AbrahamSamat.

SoutheastAsiafromtheCornerof18th&KStreets November9,2011 | 2

Two Models for Integrating Asia: A Must Win for President Obama (continued)

SoutheastAsiafromtheCornerof18th&KStreets December7,2011 | 2

Mixed Results for Corruption Fight in Indonesia (continued)

AlthoughtheoutgoinganticorruptionczarwillbejoinedonthecommissionbyBambangWidjojanto,alawyer,civilsocietyactivist,andanticorruptioncampaigner,analystswidelyexpectthatthereconstitutedKPKwillnottakeaveryactivistroleintacklingcorruptionduringtheremainingyearsoftheSusiloBambangYudhoyonoadministration.

TheelectionofSamatsurprisedmanyobserversbecausehemetparliamentariansforthefirsttimeduringhisvettingprocessinthedaysjustpriortothevoting.HecriticizedMuqoddasforhavingbeentoooutspokeninpublicandsaidthathisownstrategywouldfocusonenhancingthewitnessprotectionprogram,improvingcoordinationwithotherlawenforcementbodies,andpromotingcorruptionprevention.Analystsweresurprisedthathedidn’tstressprosecutionofcorruptofficialsandbusinessmen.

HowseriouslythenewKPKtakesitsworkmaybecomeclearinthemonthsaheadasithandlesseveralongoingcases.Onecasebeingwatchedistheinvestigationofaformerofficialatthestate-ownedPertaminaenergycompanyforallegedlyacceptingbribesforafueladditivecontractwithaBritishfirmin2005.ThecommissionbeganreviewingthecaseonNovember30.TheothercasethatwillbewatchedisthatofthecollapseofabridgeinEastKalimantanthatkilledupto39peopleonNovember24.TheconstructionofbridgepartsanditsmaintenancewerehandledbyfirmslinkedtotwoseniorGolkarpartyleaders.

Sincebeingestablishedeightyearsago,theKPKhasreceivedmorethan50,000complaintsaboutcorruption.Ithasinvestigatedandprosecutednearly70parliamentarians,morethan10cabinetministers,andotherhigh-rankingofficials,judges,andbusinessmenwhocolludedintheawardingofstatecontractsandbusinessdeals.

FightingcorruptionwasakeyplankofYudhoyono’selectioncampaignin2009afterthepreviousKPKhadsucceededingettinganumberofseniorofficialsandbusinessmensentencedtoprisonterms.Butthatfighthasslowedinrecentyears.AGalluppollinOctoberfoundthat91percentofIndonesiansfeltthatcorruptionintheIndonesiangovernmentwaswidespread,upfrom84percentinasimilarpollin2006.

ObserversgiveIndonesiahighmarksforitssuccessfultransitiontodemocracy,decentralizationofpoliticalpower,andvibrantfreepressandcivilsociety,buttheycomplainthatthemovetofreeelectionshasdone

Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) headquarters in Jakarta. The KPK’s new head is expected to do little to reinvigorate the stalled fight against corruption. http://www.flickr.com/photos/shanghaidaddy/2403530206/

Mixed Results for Corruption Fight in Indonesia (continued)

littletoreinincorruption.Foreigncompaniesreportthattheyoftenfaceunexplainedfeestoobtainlicensesandpermitsandgetrequestsforkickbackswhentheyseekcontracts.Somesaythattheyfacerequestsforbribeswhentheyturntothecourtstoresolvedisputeswithlocalpartners.

NoneofthecandidatestoutedforIndonesia’spresidentialracein2014havecitedfightingcorruptionasapriority.Giventhepublic’srisingdiscontent,thiswillneedtochange.Corruptionnowdominatespoliticaldiscourseamongthepopulaceandinthemedia.ItisseenasthegreatestbarriertoconsolidatingIndonesiandemocracyandimprovinggovernance,andvoterswillnodoubtwantwhoevertheyelectastheirnextpresidenttoaddressit.■

Despite running on an anticorruption platform in the 2009 elections, President Yudhoyono has made little progress in the fight against corruption in Indonesia during his second term. http://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/5397056501/

Looking for expert analysis of trends in the Asia Pacific? Check out the CSIS Asia policy blog, cogitASIA. Here are the most-read posts from October to November:

1. “Reluctant Realists” by Malcolm Cook and Andrew Shearer

2. “East Asia Summit: Next Step is Structure” by Ernie Bower

3. “Economic Damage of Thailand’s Flooding,” by Chayut Setboonsarng

4. “U.S. Marines to Darwin, Australia: Evolution of an Idea” by Richard W. Teare

5. “Diverging Visions of Asia’s Future Lead to Polarisation” by Hugh White

The Week That Was

myanmar

• ClintonvisitsMyanmar;announcesliftingofrestrictionsonaidfromIMFandWorldBank.HillaryClintonbecamethefirstU.S.secretaryofstatetovisitMyanmarinmorethan50yearsNovember30–December2.Duringmeetingswithgovernmentofficials,includingPresidentTheinSein,oppositionleaderAungSanSuuKyiandmembersofherNationalLeagueforDemocracy,andrepresentativesofethnicminoritygroups,ClintonannouncedthattheUnitedStateswouldnolongerblockassistancetoMyanmarfromtheInternationalMonetaryFundandWorldBank.Duringthevisit,Clintontoldgovernmentleadersthatthereleaseofpoliticalprisoners,anendtoviolenceinethnicminorityareas,andacuttingofmilitarytieswithNorthKoreawereprerequisitesforfurtherU.S.engagement.

• Myanmargovernmentreachescease-firewithShangroup.RepresentativesoftheMyanmargovernmentandleadersoftheShanStateArmy-Southethnicminoritygroupreachedpreliminaryagreementonacease-fireDecember2.TheagreementincludesassurancesofeconomicdevelopmentandjointoperationstocombatillegaldrugsinShanState.Thegovernmentalsobegancease-firenegotiationswiththeKarenNationalUnion,KarenniNationalProgressiveParty,andChinNationalFrontonNovember19andwiththeKachinIndependenceOrganizationonNovember29.Thosenegotiationsareongoing.

• MyanmarParliamentapproveslawallowingpublicprotests.Myanmar’sParliamentpassedanewlawNovember23grantingcitizenstherighttopubliclyprotestforthefirsttime.Accordingtothenewlaw,protestorganizersmustseekpermissionfivedaysinadvanceofaplanneddemonstrationandprovidedetailsaboutslogansandspeakers.Thelawprohibitsprotestsatfactories,hospitals,andgovernmentoffices.Violationofthelawispunishablebyuptooneyearinprison.

• Lawyer’strialraisesconcernsoverlandseizures,ruleoflaw.TheNewYorkTimesreportedthatlawyerandformerpoliticalprisonerPhoePhyuappearedincourtonDecember2tofacechargesofillegalassemblyanddisobeyinggovernmentordersforleadingafarmers’protestinOctoberagainstlandseizures.PhoePhyuisleadingacampaignagainstwhathesaysareincreasinglandconfiscationsthatfavorwell-connectedcompaniesattheexpenseofpoorfarmers.PhoePhyuhasyettobesentenced,butsaidbeforehiscourtappearance,“Therehasbeenabsolutelynochangeinthecourts....Thereisnoruleoflaw.”

Reports suggest that the number of land seizures in Myanmar is on the rise, dispossessing poor farmers who account for roughly two-thirds of the country’s population. http://www.flickr.com/photos/gusjer/3285895050/

malaysia

• PrimeMinisterNajibconvenesUMNOGeneralAssembly.PrimeMinisterNajibRazakconvenedthe62ndUnitedMalaysNationalOrganization(UMNO)GeneralAssemblyinKualaLumpurNovember30.Najib,whoisalsopresidentofUMNO,gavethecommencementspeechatthethree-dayassembly,describingthecrucialrolethatUMNOhasplayedinMalaysia’sdevelopment.Heemphasizedthatthepartymustcometogethertoappealtothepopulationand“reformulatethegameplan”inordertowinthenextgeneralelectionsexpectedinthefirsthalfof2012.UMNOistheleadingpartyinthecoalitionthathasgovernedMalaysiasinceindependencein1957.

• Malaysia’snewPeacefulAssemblyBillpassagespursprotests.ThelowerhouseoftheMalaysianParliamentapprovedanewPeacefulAssemblyBillonNovember29,sparkingprotestsandcriticismfromoppositionparties,theBarCouncil,andcivilsocietygroups.Thebillallowsprotestswithoutapermitforthefirsttime,butplacesnewrestrictionsondemonstrationsbybanningstreetprotests,andrequiringorganizerstoprovide10days’advancenoticetopolicebeforearally.ThebillstillneedstoberatifiedbytheupperhouseofParliament.

• Petronasreportsanotherquarterofrisingrevenues.Petronas,Malaysia’sstate-ownedoilandgasfirm,reporteda54.3percentincreaseinitssecondquarterprofitscomparedto2010.Thecompany’srevenuesforthefirstsixmonthsofthefiscalyearexperienceda25.3percentincreaseoverfiscalyear2010,whileprofitsrose50.9percent.Therisingprofitswereduetoincreasedglobaloilprices,whichPetronassaidwereupto55percenthigherinthesecondquarter,anda0.8percentincreaseinglobaldemanddrivenbyemergingmarkets.

• PanasonicplanstoopenupnewsolarcellfactoryinMalaysia.PanasonicofJapanannouncedNovember25thatitwillinvest$578milliontoestablishasolartechnologyfactoryinKedah,Malaysia.ThecompanyexpectstheplanttobeginproductioninDecember2012andtoemployroughly1,500people.Panasonicsaidthattheplantwouldstrengthenthefirm’scostcompetitivenessinthemarket.

Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur. The state-owned oil and gas company’s profits soared 54.3 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2010. http://www.flickr.com/photos/elmarbajora/3290522/

indonesia

• IndonesianarmyandpoliceclashwithprotestersatcelebrationofPapuanindependence.ArallyonDecember1markingthe50thanniversaryofWestPapua’sindependenceclaimsparkedaconfrontationwithlocalpoliceandsoldiers.SoonafterprotestershoistedthePapuan“MorningStar”flagwithouttheIndonesiannationalflaginthevillageofBerang,shotsrangoutasadetachmentofsoldiersapproachedtodispersethecrowd.Policesaidnoonewasinjuredbuttwoprotesterswerearrested.Thenextday,fourpeoplewerearrestedinconnectionwithabow-and-arrowattackontheheadofcriminalintelligenceinthesamedistrict.JakartaallowsPapuanstousethe“MorningStar”flag,butitmustbeflownalongsidetheIndonesianflag,whichmustberaisedhigher.

• NazaruddincorruptiontrialbeginsasPertaminaexecutivefacescharges.FormerDemocraticPartytreasurerMuhammadNazaruddin’strialforallegedlytakingakickbackfortheconstructionoftheSoutheastAsiaGamesathletes’villagestartedonNovember30.TheCorruptionEradicationCommission(KPK)thesamedaylaunchedaninvestigationofaformerexecutiveatthestate-ownedPertaminaenergycompanyforallegedlyacceptingakickbackonafueladditivecontractfromaUKsupplierin2005.Indonesia’slegislatureisconsideringeightcandidates,includingthecurrentpolarizingKPKadviserAbdullahHehamahua,forfouropeningsonthecommission.

• Yudhoyono’sson’smarriagemayhavepoliticalimplications.Edhie“Ibas”BaskoroYudhoyono,thepresident’syoungestson,andSitiRubyAliyaRajasamarriedattheCipanaspalaceinWestJavaonDecember1.Someinthepresssuggestedthattheweddinghadapoliticalpurpose,asthebride’sfatherisahigh-levelgovernmentofficialandchairmanoftheNationalMandateParty,amoderateIslamistpartythattook6percentofthevoteinthe2009elections.PresidentYudhoyonohaspledgedthatnostatefundswereusedforthewedding.

• TradeMinisterGitaWirjawantocontinueroleatInvestmentCoordinatingBoard.GitaWirjawan,recentlynamedIndonesia’strademinister,willnotbereplacedinhisformerroleastheheadofIndonesia’sInvestmentCoordinatingBoard.Instead,hewillwearbothhats.AnalystsexpressconcernthatwithWirjawanfocusedonexpandingIndonesianexports,investmentpromotionwillnotgettheattentionitreceivedwhenheheadedtheboardfull-time,particularlyatamomentwheninvestmentinIndonesiaisaccelerating.

Gita Wirjawan will serve as both trade minister and head of the coordinating investment board. http://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/5828126200/

• SpeculationoncauseofbridgecollapsethreatenstotarnishGolkar’sBakrieandKalla.SpeculationonthecauseofthecollapseofabridgeinEastKalimantanthatkilledasmanyas39peopleNovember26hasfocusedsuspiciononthecontractorsinchargeofthebridge’sconstruction,itsmaintenance,andthemanufactureofitscomponents.Someboltsusedinthebridge’sconstructionweremanufacturedbyafirmwithtiestoGolkar’spotentialpresidentialcandidate,AburizalBakrie,andthecontractforthebridge’smaintenancewasheldbyafirmtiedtoGolkar’s2009presidentialcandidateandformervicepresident,JusufKalla.

• Jakartatoraiseminimumwage.Jakarta’sminimumwagewasraisedbytwolocalgoverningboardsonNovember18andwillbeimplementedstartingnextyear.Theincreaseof16.1percentcomesontheheelsofa15.4percentincreasethattookeffectin2011,bothpeggedtoinflationofgoodsandservices.Thiscouldcauselaborcoststoriseinandaroundthecapital,thecountry’smostimportantmanufacturingbase,atthesametimethatIndonesiaisseekingtocourtforeigninvestorswaryaboutrisinglaborcostsinneighboringcountries.

thailand

• ThaigovernmentplanstoreturnpassporttoformerprimeministerThaksin.TheThaigovernmentannouncedonDecember2thatitwillsoonissueaThaipassporttooustedformerprimeministerThaksinShinawatra.ForeignMinisterSurapongTovichakchaikultoldreporters,“Iwillusemyauthoritytodowhateverisnotillegalundertheregulationsoftheministrytogivethepassporttoex-premierThaksin.”WhileThaksin’ssister,currentprimeministerYingluckShinawatra,issaidnottobeinvolved,oppositionmembersclaimtheforeignministerhasbeengiventhesolejobofhelpingThaksinreturntoThailand.

• Governmentsentencesmanto20yearsfortextmessageandwarnsofcriminalFacebookuse.TheEuropeanUnionDelegationtoThailandissuedastatementNovember28expressingdeepconcernaboutacourtdecisiontosentenceAmponTangnoppakulto20yearsinprisonunderThailand’sstrict lèse-majestélawsforsendinganti-royaltextmessages.MinisterofInformationandCommunicationTechnologyAnudithNakornthapannouncedthenextdaythatFacebookuserswho“share”or“like”contentthatinsultstheThaimonarchyarecommittingacrime.Thailand’slèse-majestélawshaveoftencomeunderattackforbeinganathematodemocraticfreespeechrights.

Philippine president Benigno Aquino and his predecessor Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo have been engaged in a political standoff in the high courts in recent months. http://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/6170232825/

• UNclaimsreducedfundingofAIDSpreventionprogramsresponsibleforsurgeinnewcasesinThailand.MichaelHahn,UNAID’scoordinatorinThailand,saidthatthenumberofnewHIVcasesinthecountryisincreasingbyabout10,000everyyearduetothereductionoffundsdevotedtoAIDSprevention.Fifteenpercentofthecurrent$250millioningovernmentfundsallocatedtofightAIDShasbeenspentonprevention,buttheproperratioshouldbe30percent,hesaid.Hahnurgedmorepreventioneffortstargetingthethreemostvulnerablegroups—homosexualmen,intravenousdrugusers,andsexworkers—whoaccountfor94percentofnewinfectionsinThailand.

philippines

• HighcourtsaysAquinorelativesmustsurrenderland.ThePhilippineSupremeCourtorderedPresidentBenignoAquino’srelativesonDecember1tosurrendertheir15,901acresugarcaneplantation,theHaciendaLuisita,to6,300farmersinimpoverishednorthernTarlacprovince.Someanalystssaythecourt’srulingisex-presidentGloriaMacapagal-Arroyo’slatestvendettaagainstAquinoforseekingherarrest.Thepresidentrefusedtoallowthecurrentchiefjustice,oneofseveraljusticesappointedbytheformerpresident,toadministerhispresidentialoathofofficeathisinaugurationin2010.

• Philippineeconomicgrowthdropsto3.2percent.Badweather,highenergycosts,aweakeningconstructionsector,andsluggishexportsslowedPhilippineeconomicgrowthto3.2percentinthethirdquarter,despitegovernmentspendinginarecentstimuluspackage,accordingtoaNovember28economicreport.ThePhilippinegovernmenthadprojectedamoreoptimistictargetof4.5to5.5percentgrowthforthequarter,but“constructionwasn’treallythere,”saidEconomicPlanningSecretaryCayetanoPaderanga.

• Fourarrestedinscamtofinanceterroristactivities.ManilapolicearrestedfourhackersNovember23forrunningafraudulentpremium-linephonenetworkthatscammedabout$2millionfromAT&TandfunneledittoanundisclosedSaudi-basedmilitantgroup.TheFBIsaysthefourperpetratorswerehiredbytheterroristgroupthatfinancedtheNovember2008Mumbaiattacks.OfficialsalsodiscoveredlinksbetweenthehackersandJemaahIslamiyah,aSoutheastAsianmilitantgroupwithtiestoalQaeda.

• ChinatoexecutefourthFilipinothisyearfordrugtrafficking.China’sSupremePeople’sCourtscheduledtheexecutionofa35-year-oldFilipino

A volunteer for Thai World AIDS Day 2008. The UN has reported that new HIV cases are surging in Thailand due to reduced AIDS prevention funding. http://www.flickr.com/photos/thaths/3132174315/

manforDecember8despiteappealsforclemencyfromPhilippinepresidentBenignoAquino.Theunidentifiedman,thefourthFilipinotofaceChina’sdeathsentencesinceMarch,wasarrestedinSeptember2008forsmuggling3.3poundsofherointhroughGuilinInternationalAirport.APhilippinegovernmentspokesmansaidthattheexecution“shouldnotcauseahiccupinFilipino-Chineserelations,”butcriticsarguetheincidentrevealsgrowingmistrustbetweenManilaandBeijing.

vietnam

• Dong’sinflationslows,promptinggovernmenttoconsiderinterestratecut.Vietnam’sinflationslowedforthethirdconsecutivemonthinNovember,promptingthecentralbanktoconsideraninterestratecuttocounteractdampenedglobaldemand.ThegovernmenthasbeenworkingtoaddressinflationsinceFebruaryandisintheprocessofoverhaulingitsindustrialandfiscalpolicies.GovernmentofficialsfearaninternationalanddomesticcrisisofconfidenceintheCommunistParty’sabilitytoguidetheeconomythroughcurrentdifficulties.

• NationalAssemblyagreesonneedforlawonpublicdemonstrations.Vietnam’sNationalAssemblydecidedNovember26tomoveforwardwithdraftingalawregulatingpublicprotests.Beforereachingadecision,thelegislaturedebatedtheneedforsuchalaw,withonelegislatorquestioningtheneedforcitizenstoprotesttheirgovernment’spoliciesandcitingthedangerofrecentprotestsagainstChina’sclaimsintheSouthChinaSeathatcouldpotentiallyinflameatensediplomaticsituation.

• CourtcutssentenceforFrench-Vietnamesedissident.Vietnam’sappealscourtshortenedtheprisonsentenceforFrench-VietnamesebloggerPhamMinhHoangfrom36to17monthsNovember29.ThemathprofessorbloggerwasconvictedofpostingseveralarticlescriticizingVietnam’sone-partysystemandforhismembershipintheU.S.-basedVietTangroup,whichisconsideredaterroristorganizationinVietnam.LeniencywasofferedinreturnforHoang’srenunciationofthegroup’sactivities,buthewillremainunderhousearrestforthreeyearsaftercompletionofhisprisonsentence.

• GEtohelpbuildwindfarminVietnam.U.S.-basedGeneralElectric(GE)planstoassistaVietnamesecompanyinbuildinga10-turbinewindfarmthatwillproduce16megawattsofelectricitytohelpthecountryaddressitsfrequentpowershortages.Theproject,onwhichconstructionhasstarted,islocated125milessouthofHoChiMinhCity.Vietnamaimsto

Slowing inflation has prompted Vietnam’s central bank to consider lowering interest rates. http://www.flickr.com/photos/superciliousness/17247621/

increaseitswind-generatedenergycapacityto1,000megawattsby2020,althoughsomeexpertsbelievethatthepriceofdomesticrenewablepowerdoesnotyetmakebuildingwindturbinespractical.

south china sea

• China’sfirstaircraftcarrierbeginssecondtrial.China’srefurbishedaircraftcarrier,theVaryag,starteditslatestseatrialNovember29aftercompletingaseriesofrefittingandtestingmeasuressinceitsmaidentrialinAugust.TheformerUkrainiancarriersetofffromthePortofDalianinnortheasternChinato“carryoutrelevantscientificandresearchexperiments,”China’sDefenseMinistrysaid.SomeanalystsexpectthecarrierwillbeusedtoreinforceBeijing’sclaimsandprotectvitalshippinglanesintheSouthChinaSea.

• Chineseop-edsays“historyhasbestowed”China’snine-dottedline.China’sstate-ownedPeople’sDailyandGlobalTimesnewspapersissuedanop-edNovember21urgingBeijingto“resolutelyrepel[U.S.]interference[and]defendChina’snine-dottedlinearea[intheSouthChinaSea]thathistoryhasbestowedtous.”Theauthor,PanGuoping,aprofessoratChina’sSouthwestUniversityofLawandPolitics,saidjointexplorationbetweenPetroVietnamandIndia’sONGCwould“pushChinatothelimit.”GlobalTimescommentariesoftentakestridentpositionsonforeignpolicyissues.

• ChinesemilitarysaysU.S.-Australiamilitaryexpansionis“ColdWarmentality.”China’sDefenseMinistryspokesmanGengYanshengsaidonNovember30thatthepositioningofU.S.marinesinDarwin,Australia,expresseda“ColdWarmentality.”ThewarningwasChina’sstrongestreactionagainstPresidentBarackObama’sannouncementNovember17that2,500U.S.marineswillbebasedatthenorthernAustralianbase.ThestatementwasissuedamidseatrialsforChina’ssecondaircraftcarrierandWashington’sdecisiontoupgradethePhilippinenavalfleetwithtwomorewarshipsandreinforceTaiwan’sairforcewithatleast66refurbishedF-16s.

• ASEANdefensespendingsettorisein2012.Indonesia,Vietnam,thePhilippines,Brunei,andCambodiahaveallpledgedgreaterdefensespendingintheir2012nationalbudgets.IndonesiaandVietnamhave

The USS GeorgeWashington, currently deployed in Asia, will share the Pacific with China’s first aircraft carrier. http://www.flickr.com/photos/usnavy/6240858856/

announcedthelargestincreases,about35percenteach.SingaporeislikelytoremainthelargestspenderinASEAN,butits2012defensebudgethasyettobereleased.Despitetheincreasedspending,thegrouping’sdefensebudgetswillstillbedwarfedbytheUnitedStatesandregionalpowerslikeJapan,India,SouthKorea,andChina.

• IndonesiahostsseventhASEANIntergovernmentalCommissiononHumanRights.TheASEANIntergovernmentalCommissiononHumanRights(AICHR)helditsseventhmeetingNovember28–December1inBali,Indonesia.Duringthemeeting,ASEANsecretarygeneralSurinPitsuwanandNaviPillay,theUNHighCommissionerforHumanRights,heraldedtheeffortsbyAICHRtopushhumanrightstotheforefront.However,PillaysaidthatmoreneedstobedonetopromotehumanrightsintheregionandthatthenexttwoyearsarecrucialforAICHR.

• ASEANtoimplementnewHarmonizedTariffNomenclaturein2012.ASEANcountriesplantoimplementaharmonizedsetoftariffcodesandclassificationsystemin2012.TheASEANHarmonizedTariffNomenclature(AHTN),partofASEAN’s2015MasterPlanonConnectivity,seekstoprovidetransparencythroughacommonclassificationcodingsystemandhelpfacilitatetradeintheregion.TheimplementationoftheAHTNfollowstheenactmentofseveralotherinitiativesrelatedtothemasterplanattheASEANsummitinNovember.

• TransparencyInternational’s2011CorruptionPerceptionIndexrevealsmixedresultsforASEANcountries.TransparencyInternationalreleaseditsannualCorruptionPerceptionIndex(CPI)December1,analyzingperceivedlevelsofpubliccorruptionin183countries.AmongASEANmemberstates,Singaporerankedhighestatnumber5intheworld,whileMyanmarrankedlowestat180.NoneoftheASEANcountries’scoreschangedsubstantiallyfrom2010,thoughseveralincreasedslightly,includingIndonesia(ranked100)andthePhilippines(ranked129),whosemeagerimprovementshighlightedthecontinueddifficultiesfacinggovernmenteffortstocombatcorruption. The scores of ASEAN member states did not move much in the latest Corruption Perception

Index from Transparency International. Chart by CSIS Southeast Asia Program.

Several ASEAN states have pledged higher defense spending in 2012 but are still dwarfed by their neighbors and the United States. 2012 figures for Sin-gapore and China not included due to missing data. Chart by CSIS Southeast Asia Program.

cambodia

• WilliamE.ToddnominatedasU.S.ambassadortoCambodia.PresidentBarackObamaannouncedDecember1hisintentiontonominateWilliamE.ToddasthenewU.S.ambassadortoCambodia.Todd,acareerforeignserviceofficer,wastheU.S.ambassadortoBruneifrom2008to2010andhaspreviouslyworkedinvariousrolesattheStateDepartment’sBureauofInternationalNarcoticsandLawEnforcementAffairs.TheU.S.EmbassyinPhnomPenhhasbeenledbychargéd’affairesJeffD’Aglesincethepreviousambassador,CarolRodley,completedherthree-yearmissioninSeptember.

• FirsthearingsinKhmerRougetrialadjourn.Thefirstroundofhearingsinthelong-awaitedtrialofthreeformerKhmerRougeleadersadjournedNovember23aftertwodays,providinglittlesatisfactiontoCambodianshopingforjustice.Thethreedefendants,NuonChea,KhieuSampha,andIengSary,arechargedwithcrimesagainsthumanityfortheirroleinatrocitiesduringtheKhmerRougeruleinthe1970s.Duringtheproceedings,theregime’schiefideologist,NuonChea,defendedhisactionsasapatrioticacttodefendthestatefromcolonizationbyVietnam.

• CambodiatobeaffectedbyGlobalFundfreeze.TheGeneva-basedGlobalFund,amajordonorofprojectscombatingHIV/AIDS,tuberculosis,andmalariainCambodia,announcedonNovember30thatitwillfreezenewgrantsfortwoyearsdueto“substantialbudgetchallenges.”MoneyfromGlobalFundpaysformedicinefor37,000HIV/AIDSpatientsinCambodia.CambodiaaimstoreducethenumberofpeopleinthecountrywhodiefromHIV/AIDSfrom2,500in2011to2,300in2012,butthefundingfreezebyGlobalFundsisexpectedtohurtfurtherprogress.

• Cambodiahostsglobalanti-landminesummit.About1,000delegatesparticipatedinafive-dayannualmeetingofmembersoftheAnti-PersonnelMineBanConvention,alsoknownastheOttawaTreaty,whichwasadoptedin1997.AccordingtoUnitedNationsdata,Cambodia,whichsignedthetreatyin1999,hascleared270squaremilesoflandminesandotherunexplodedordinanceandintendstoclearanadditional251squaremilesby2019.About160countrieshaveagreedtostopusingandproducinganti-personnelminesaspartoftheOttawaTreaty.

mekong river

• InternationalpetitioncallsforLaoandThaigovernmentstocancelXayaburidamproject.EnvironmentalgroupInternationalRiverssaid

Khmer Rouge number-two leader Nuon Chea during a Trial Chamber hearing at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia in January. The first round of hearings in the trial of Chea, Khieu Sampha, and Ieng Sary adjourned November 23. http://www.flickr.com/photos/krtribunal/5403291229/

December1that22,580peoplefrommorethan100countrieshadsignedapetitioncallingforcancelingthecontroversialXayaburidamproject.Environmentalistsclaimthe1,280megawattThai-financeddamprojectinLaoswillnegativelyaffectfishstocksandVietnam’sprimericegrowingarea.TheMekongRiverCommissioncountries—Laos,Thailand,Cambodia,andVietnam—agreedinApriltosuspendthedam’sdevelopmentpendingfurtherstudies,butcontinuedreportsofconstructiononthedamhaveworriedVietnamandCambodia.

• MekongDeltareceivesfloodaidfromAustraliaandGermany.TheAustralianAgencyforInternationalDevelopmentpledged$510,000November25tohelpaddressfloodissuesintheMekongDeltaregion,whichwasfollowedbya$3.2milliondonationfromtheGermangovernmentonNovember29.AccordingtoVietnam’sfloodandstormpreparednesscommittee,floodingbymid-Novemberhadaffectednearly154,000houses,caused85deaths,anddestroyedmorethan26,000acresofricepaddies.

singapore

• GohChokTongurgesregiontorespondtonuclearaccidents.FormerprimeministerofSingaporeGohChokTongstressedtheimportanceofbuildingregionalearlywarningcapabilitiesandconsolidatingresponsestonuclearaccidentsduringameetingoftheNuclearSecuritySummitEminentPersonsGroup(EPG)meetinginSeoulNovember29.TheEPGwasformedtoadviseSouthKoreanpresidentLeeMyung-bakbeforeSeoulhoststhe2012NuclearSecuritySummit.Althoughthereisnoactivenuclearpowerplantinregion,sixSoutheastAsiancountrieshaveexpressedtheirinterestindevelopingnuclearpower.

• Singaporeputsnewsubmarineintooperation.Singapore’sdefenseminister,NgEngHen,declaredonDecember2thatthefirstofSingapore’smostadvancedpairofsubmarineshadenteredactiveserviceaftertwoyearsofseatrials.HesaidthattheRSSArcherwouldreinvigorateregionalpeaceandstabilityoperationsbybuilding“confidencewithothermilitaries.”AsecondArcher-classsubmarine,theRSSSwordsman,isstillconductingtrialsinSwedenandwilljointheRepublicofSingaporeNavyfleetoncecompleted.

timor-leste

• ASEANSummitunanimouslyapprovesproposalforworkinggrouponTimor-Lestemembership.SingaporeproposedNovember23the

Former prime minister of Singapore Goh Chok Tong is one of the 12 members of the Nuclear Security Summit Eminent Persons Group, which also includes former U.S. secretary of state Henry Kissinger and former U.S. defense secretary William Perry. http://www.flickr.com/photos/azharyphotography/3995511946/

establishmentofaworkinggrouptodiscussallaspectsrelatedtoTimor-Leste’sapplicationforASEANmembership,includingwhetheritisabletomeettheASEANcharter’srequirements.TheASEANmemberstatesreachedconsensusontheproposalduringtheASEANCoordinatingCouncilmeeting.IndonesiaandMalaysiahavepubliclyendorsedTimor-Leste’smembership,butSingaporehasexpressedconcernsaboutitsimplicationsforthegroup.

• Timor-LestefirsttobenefitfromAustralia’spledgetohelpfragilestates.Timor-LesteandAustraliasignedanagreementNovember29outliningAustraliansupportforimprovedgovernance,security,agriculture,andinfrastructuredevelopmentinTimor-Leste,makingitthefirstofficialbeneficiaryofAustralia’sNewDealforInternationalEngagementinFragileStates.Australian

foreignministerKevinRuddsaidhiscountryiscommittedtoTimor-Leste’sdevelopmentprioritiesanditsgoalsofstabilityandgreaterprosperity.TwelveofAustralia’sneighborsareclassedasfragilestates.

• UNpraisesTimor-Leste’seffortstoimplementdisasterresponsemeasures.MargaretaWahlström,UNSpecialRepresentativeoftheSecretary-GeneralforDisasterRiskReduction,praisedTimor-Leste’seffortstorespondmoreeffectivelytonaturaldisastersNovember22afterathree-dayvisittoDili,saying,“AcohesivestrategythatfocusesonpreventionaswellasresponsewillhelpTimor-Lestetoprotectitsdevelopmentgains.”Duetoitspropensityforfloods,landslides,andprolongeddryspells,aswellthehighriskofearthquakesandtsunamis,Timor-Lestehassuffered470naturaldisastersinthelastdecade.

brunei

• Chinesepremiervowstostrengtheneconomictiesduringvisit.ChinesepremierWenJiabaotraveledtoBruneiNovember20–21forthefirstvisitbyaChinesepremierduringthe20-yearofficialrelationshipbetweenthetwocountries.WenwitnessedthesigningofseveraldealsforChineseinvestmentinenergy,healthcare,forestry,andnaturalresourceextraction,includingacontractbetweenBruneiShellPetroleum and Chinese petrochemical company Zhejiang Hengyi Group tobuilda$6billionrefineryinBrunei.■

Margareta Wahlström, UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, enjoys a traditional dance performance during a recent three day visit to Timor-Leste. http://www.flickr.com/photos/isdr/6400042749/

Looking Ahead

• LectureonfreetradewithAustralia’sshadowtreasurer.TheHeritageFoundationwillhostJoeHockeyMP,amemberofAustralia’sLiberalParty,foranevententitled“TheFutureofFreeTradeandCommerce”onDecember7from4:30to5:30p.m.HockeyhasservedasshadowtreasurerinAustralia’soppositionShadowMinistrysinceFebruary2009.TheeventwillbeheldintheLehrmanAuditorium,TheHeritageFoundation,214MassachusettsAve.,N.E.,andcanbeviewedliveonline.PleaseRSVP here.

• LectureonclimatechangeintheAsiaPacificattheEmbassyofAustralia.TheEmbassyofAustraliawillhostalecturebytheUniversityofMelbourne’sJohnBarnettentitled“ClimateChangeandSecurityintheAsiaPacific”onDecember8at6:30p.m.ProfessorBarnettwilldiscusstheevidenceforandagainstviewingclimatechangeasathreattohumansecurityintheAsiaPacific.Theevent,partoftheAustralianAmbassador’sSpeakerSeries2011,willbeheldattheEmbassyofAustralia,1601MassachusettsAve.,N.W.PleaseRSVPto media.us@dfat.gov.au.

• TheCloisterwithKurtCampbell.KurtCampbell,assistantsecretaryofstateforEastAsiaandthePacific,willspeakataCloisterbriefingatCSISonDecember9.TheCloisterisaseriesofhigh-level,private,off-the-recordmeetingsfollowingChathamHouserulesthatgiveseniorstatesmenandpolicymakerstheopportunitytodiscussarangeofpolicyoptions,challenges,andnewinitiativeswithtopexperts.Themeetingsarebyinvitationonly.

• ForumonIndonesia’schangingelectoralsystematUSINDO.TheU.S.-IndonesiaSociety(USINDO)andtheInternationalFoundationforElectoralSystems(IFES)willcohostanopenforumentitled“UnderstandingChangestoIndonesia’sElectoralSystemandtheirRelationshiptothe2014Elections”onDecember9from12:00p.m.to1:30p.m.TheforumwillbeledbyPeterErben,chiefofpartyandseniorelectoraladviserforIndonesia,IFES.ItwilltakeplaceattheUSINDOOffice,1625MassachusettsAve.,N.W.,Suite550.PleaseRSVPhere byDecember8.

• BooklaunchofWorldUnderPressureattheWoodrowWilsonCenter.TheWoodrowWilsonInternationalCenterforScholarswillhostalaunchofCarlJ.Dahlman’snewbook,WorldUnderPressure:HowChinaandIndiaAreInfluencingtheGlobalEconomyandEnvironment,onDecember9from3:00p.m.to4:30p.m.Dr.DahlmanisanassociateprofessorattheEdmundA.WalshSchoolofForeignServiceatGeorgetownUniversityandformersenioradviserattheWorldBank.Thelaunchwilltakeplaceonthe5thflooroftheWoodrowWilsonCenter,1300PennsylvaniaAve.,N.W.PleaseRSVP here.

• ScreeningofTheLadyatAsiaSociety.FilmmakerAngLee,AsiaSociety,OpenSocietyFoundations,andHumanRightsWatchwillcohostafilmscreeningofthenewAungSanSuuKyibiopicTheLadyonDecember11from2:30p.m.to5:30p.m.ThefilmwillbeintroducedbyAngLee,andaQ&AsessionwithdirectorLucBessonandactressMichelleYeohwillfollowthescreening.TheeventwilltakeplaceatAsiaSociety,725ParkAvenue,NewYork,NY.Formoreinformation,clickhere.■

For more details on our programs and to follow CSIS with real-time updates, follow the CSIS Southeast Asia Program:

On Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/CSISSoutheastAsia

On Twitter at @SoutheastAsiaDC.

On our blog, cogitASIA at http://cogitASIA.csis.org

Thank you for your interest in U.S. policy in Southeast Asia and CSIS Southeast Asia. Join the conversation!

southeast asia from the corner of 18th & k streets CSIS Southeast Asia Program contributors:

Ernest Bower, Senior Adviser and Director Murray Hiebert, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director Greg Poling, Research Assistant Sakari Deichsel, Researcher Wai Phyo Myint, Researcher Kiet Nguyen, Researcher MeiLee Dozier, Researcher Blake Berger, Researcher

This newsletter is published by the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Stra-tegic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. CSIS’s research is non-partisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accord-ingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

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