social media in foreign elections
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Social Media in Foreign Elections
Shane Abinette
Three CountriesArmenia’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections
Korea’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections
France’s 2012 Presidential Election
Armenia’s 2012 Elections
7-10% on Facebook18% on other Social Media sites87% rely on TV for political news
Armenian Voters Mobilized? Nope.
Minimal engagement by politicians with votersPresidential election is more popularPolitical News Source
87% TV11% online
GDP per capita = $5,400
Social Media’s RoleIditord.org : Voter fraud election report system
Site went down while polls were open, minimal reports of fraud
Government? Poor Internet Service?
Largest social media event during election150 people hospitalized after balloons exploded at political rally
South Korea’s 2012 Election
Polls showed Democratic United (Liberal) and Saenuri (Conservative) Parties tied80% of internet users favored LiberalsTop 5 twitters were Liberal Politicians. Can Twitter decide an election? Voter Mobilization Online?
Election ResultsConservatives: -24 seatsLiberals: +38 seatsFinal Score: 152 Conservatives and 127 LiberalsMedia Analysts and Polls predicted a closer outcomeTwitter suggested Liberals may win
Presidential ElectionDecemeber 2012Polls are very closeLiberal Candidate ahead on TwitterRound two!
France75% on the web25 of 77 Million have Facebook Accounts74% Political News from TV40% Political News from the Internet
France’s Social Media Election
Every candidate had a Twitter and Facebook (for the first time)Hollande Twitter count: 224,000Sarkozy Twitter count: 157,000Sarkozy Lost
Buzz Doesn’t Make You a Winner
Social Media as a Predictor
Sarkozy’s Plate: Eurozone Debt Crisis and 2008 Recession
11th Executive to lose office in Europe
Destined to lose?
ConclusionsSocial media’s election prediction abilities are questionable
Liberals seem to be more active on the internet
Referenceshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2009/06/17/DI2009061702232.html http://blogs.salesforce.com/strategy/2012/05/whats-the-impact-of-social-media-on-the-french-presidential-elections.htmlhttp://articles.cnn.com/2012-04-19/opinion/opinion_france-election-social_1_social-media-social-tv-twitter/2?_s=PM:OPINIONhttp://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/07/16/social-media-and-armenias-2012-parliamentary-elections/http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/09/net-us-korea-politics-socialmedia-idUSBRE8380BI20120409http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2012/04/20124110199508413.htmlhttp://blogs.wsj.com/korearealtime/2012/04/12/odds-ends-a-day-after-the-election/
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