social media and protest behavior

Social media and protest behavior

Sebastián Valenzuela, PhD

Facultad de Comunicaciones UC

POLITICAL-TECHNOLOGICAL

Two correlated revolutions

Túnez, diciembre 2010 Egipto, enero 2011

Londres (Tottenham), agosto 2011Madrid, mayo 2011

Chile, julio 2011

Usuarios de Facebook en el mundo

http://newsofthemedia.com/2012/01/facebook-hit-1-billion-users/

54,8%

0 20 40 60 80 100

Malaysia

UK

Sweden

Australia

Taiwan

Hong Kong

Chile

Singapore

United Arab Emirates

Iceland

Proporción de la población con

Facebookhttp://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-

statistics/?orderBy=penetration

DATUM

IN CHILE, TWO-THIRDS OF URBAN RESIDENTS AGED

18 TO 29 CONNECTS TO FACEBOOK ON A DAILY BASISPeriodismo UDP - Feedback, Encuesta Jóvenes y Participación, 2011

CAUSES AND EFFECTS

Correlation is not necessarily causation. Yet,…

ViralMS

Surveys on Youth and Particioation

2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Universe: adults aged 18-29 living in main urban areas (GreaterSantiago, Concepción-Talcahuano and Valparaíso-Viña del Mar)

Sample: multistage area probability sample stratified by geographical region.

Mode: face-to-face interviews

Sample size: 1,000 casos each year

Variables: sociodemographics, media use, attitudes (trust, efficacy, values, grievances, etc.), political and civic participation, protestbehavior

Fieldwork: Feedback S.A.

USERS

Who uses social media in Chile

*Comparison of Facebook, YouTube and Twitter users who use these sites onca a week at leastwith users who use these sites less frequently. Differences are statistically significant (p < .05)

SOURCE: Encuesta Jóvenes y Participación

• More political interest

• Less likely to self-censor political opinions

• More political discussion

• (FB only) Less time spent using mainstream news

• (TW only) Higher levels of political self-efficacy

USERS v NONUSERS

• Similar levels of political trust (very low)

• Similar likelihood of having registered to vote (prior to

automatic registration)

• Less likely to vote in past presidential elections (except

for Twitter users)

USERS v NONUSERS

*Comparison of Facebook, YouTube and Twitter users who use these sites onca a week at leastwith users who use these sites less frequently. Differences are statistically significant (p < .05)

SOURCE: Encuesta Jóvenes y Participación

www.facebook.com/davidvonblohn

www.facebook.com/davidvonblohn

FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS

What do users do onsocial media in Chile

POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE

Obtain political information

POLITICAL EXPRESSION

Discuss politics with friends, family, coworkers and peers

information + discussion + Z =

movilization

¿What is Z?

• Other causes of protest behavior that need to

be taken into account if we are to estimate the

contribution of social media for protest

• At the individual level (Dalton, Sickle & Weldon, 2009):

– Political and economic grievances

– Human values

– Material and psychological resources

– News and information

IMPACT

What is the effect of social media in protest behavior in Chile?

In 2011, frequent use of

Facebook was the third

most important predictor of

participation in street

protests, similar to the

influence of postmaterialist

values and twice more

relevant than political

interest and institutional

trust.

Mediating variables

Using social media for:

• Information: index of news use on social media

• Politica expression: index of opinion expression on social

media about HidroAysén, student movement and other

political issues

• Joining causes online: index of participation in political, public

or citizen-led causes on social network sites in the last 12

months (HidroAysén, student movement, etc.)

INTERVENING VARIABLES

Effects of social media are indirect and contingent uponspecific uses and gratifications

Directions for future research

• The influence of social media in elections and traditional political

participation

• Triangulate survey data with:

– Content analysis of social media

– Social network analysis

– Longitudinal, panel surveys

• Cross-national comparative work

• DEVELOP THEORY!

THANK YOU!

This presentation can be downloaded at

http:// www.slideshare.com/savalenz

Research work and papers are available at

http://uc-cl.academia.edu/Valenzuela