skepticism: the intertwining of politics and science

Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science

M. LeachMay 4, 2011

Models and Uncertainty

• Surface Temperature• Clouds• Water Vapor• Ice

Consensus vs. Minority

Consensus• Earth is warming• Warming is Human Induced• Certainty about the first two• Leads some to propose

mitigation technologies that we discussed last time

Minority• Earth is warming• Not clear that it is human

induced• Models used are full of

uncertainty• Thinks that society is

overreacting

Some Prominent (science) skeptics

Richard Lindzen, Professor, MITJohn Christy, Professor, UAHRoger Pielke, Sr. Professor, CSU and CUBill Cotton, Professor, CSURoy Spencer, UAH and NASA

Criteria for any Technological Fix

1. The technology must embody a cause-effect relationship

2. The effects of the technological fix must be assessable

3. Research and development must focus on improvement

Politics mixing with science

• During the GWB admininstration, James Hansen, NASA (i.e. US Govt) scientist was warned against speaking to the media.

• There have been ad hominem attacks against scientists questioning their motives (and therefore their character). – This occurs on both “sides”, but appears to be more

inclusive against the skeptics

Books

• The Assault on Reason, Al Gore• The Republican War on Science, Chris Mooney

• Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor, Roy Spencer

• Climategate: A Veteran Meteorologist Exposes the Global Warming Scam, Brian Sussman

Moulin

Dynamics of a Moulin

Leads and Polynya

Leads and Polynyas

Temperature

Heat Flux

Hydrologic Cycle

Clouds and Precipitation

The Models

Uncertainty in the Models

• The problems “are so complex that it may take many decades, or even centuries (If ever!) before we have matured enough as a scientific community to make credible predictions of long-term climate trends and their corresponding regional impacts” William Cotton and Roger Pielke Sr. (CSU)

Model Progress in the last Decade

• Model resolution• Cloud feedbacks• El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)• Aerosol processes• Land surface (carbon cycling, soil moisture,

multilayer snow models)• Sea-ice dynamics

But uncertainty persists

• Clouds• Clouds• Clouds• Water Vapor• Ice sheet dynamics• Glaciers and ice caps• Ocean upwelling

Other GCM Issues

• Tuning• Incompleteness

– Polar amplification– Polar stratification and Ozone depletion– Propagating Impacts of Changes in the Stratopshere– Moulins and Sea Level Rise– Sources of Methane– Underestimating vs. Overestimating Climate Change

• Climate Sensitivity in the models

Data Limitations and Climate Complexity

• Maybe the source of much of the controversy– Too short (e.g. satellites, thermometers)– Too incomplete spatially (e.g. ice cores)– Too lacking in consistency (space and time)

• Tree rings• Ice cores• Ocean sediments• Thermometers and satellites

Social Pressures

• Polar Sea Ice• Balanced Presentations• Peer Review• Politicians and Political Views entering the discussion• Scientists trying to influence policy

– acc

• Media issues

The Ethics in the Debate

1. If we accept the IPCC conclusion that we are harming the environment and therefore our descendants

2. We benefited tremendously from our ancestors; we have a debt to our descendants

3. We have a personal stake in the future; our descendants will be the earthly judges of the value of our lives

Some Simple Actions

1. A little discomfort2. Public transportation

a. Individual: take itb. Societal: improve it

3. Locally grown produce4. Less meat5. Fluorescent Lighting