simon j. evenett university of st. gallen, switzerland beggar thy poor neighbour: evidence from the...
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Simon J. Evenett
University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
BEGGAR THY POOR NEIGHBOUR:
EVIDENCE FROM THE GLOBAL TRADE ALERT
1
The goal of this presentation is to provide the latest information on the incidence of protectionism to lower per-capita income developing countries.
Raise awareness about protectionism; name-and-shame; encourage policy dialogue and unwinding of protectionism.
Contents of this presentation:Global context: lower world trade growth since crisis hit. Incidence of protectionism harming LDCs and LMICs.Effects of protectionism.Recommendations for action.
PURPOSE AND CONTENTS OF THIS PRESENTATION
2
Simon J. Evenett
University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
GLOBAL CONTEXT
3
WORLD TRADE DYNAMICS HAVE ALTERED SHARPLY SINCE THE CRISIS
4
Average trade elasticities have fallen by more for developing countries
Data source: World Development Indicators.
PROTECTIONISM RETURNS TO 2009 LEVELS
5
Num
ber
of
new
beggar-
thy-n
eig
hbou
r m
easu
res
imple
mente
d w
orl
dw
ide in a
giv
en y
ear
Warning: Raw data—
no correction
for reporting lags
Source: Global Trade Alert
THE PICTURE IS WORSE IF REPORTING LAGS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
6Glo
bal to
tal of
new
beggar-
thy-n
eig
hbour
measu
res
found b
y 1
Oct
ober
(today)
in e
ach
year
Remember 2009 was the
year that policymakers were alarmed
about protectionism!
Source: Global Trade Alert
GTA’S EXPANDED COVERAGE IN THE PAST YEAR CASTS THE G20’S TRACK
RECORD IN A WORSE LIGHT
7
Num
ber
of
new
beggar-
thy-n
eig
hbou
r m
easu
res
imple
mente
d b
y t
he G
20 in
a g
iven y
ear
In the past year the
GTA team has found 49% more
instances of G20
protectionism for 2009-
12
Simon J. Evenett
University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
INCIDENCE OF PROTECTIONISM ON LDC AND
LOWER MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
8
LOWER INCOME COUNTRIES DIDN’T ESCAPE CRISIS-ERA PROTECTIONISM
9
THE 10 MOST COMMON FORMS OF PROTECTIONISM HARMING…
10
LDCs LMICs
WHICH WTO MEMBERS ARE RESPONSIBLE? THE TOP 10…
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Countries ranked by number of hits to LDC commercial interests
Simon J. Evenett
University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
WHAT NEXT?
12
STEPS TO SUPPORT UNWINDING PROTECTIONISM
13
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