simon cook - the global water and food crisis

The global water and food crisis

Global picture of water and development

Simon Cook, Tassilo Tiemann & Myles Fisher

Outline

• Crisis…

• …behind every crisis is a situation

– more people, more demand, same resources

• The detail in ten river basins• The detail in ten river basins

– 4 water related reasons for poverty

• Some impacts of climate change (very brief)

• Conclusions

Crisis

INDIA NEWS CTOBER 1, 2009

India's Drought Worst Since 1972

India: Drought affects 100s of millons

India: Floods displace a million

Africa: Drought hits region

Southern Africa:

Floods (again)

Yellow River:

China’s sorrow

Mekong: Conflict over hydropower

Ganges: 500 million facing disaster

Brazil: Conflict over water use

Venezuela: Uncertain supply

Andes: Conflict , shrinking supply

Behind every crisis is a Situation

Population increasing

Food & water demand growing

• Food crisis • Water crisis

…Water availability diminishing Reducing per capita availability of water

10

12

14

16

Africa

‘000 m3

0

2

4

6

8

10

1960 1990 2025

World

Asia

MENA

Details from river basins

Conditions of water and food systems analyzed in 10 basins

Niger

Research planWater availability

How much water flows through basins?

Who uses it?

+Water use

How well is water used?

Water productivity of crops, livestock, fish…(kg/m3

Institutions

(who supports / controls /obstructs improvement?(who supports / controls /obstructs improvement?

What are the impacts on livelihoods?

How are water, food and poverty linked?

Potential interventions

Change processes

Livelihoods influenced by 4 water-related factors

1. Availability / ScarcityHow much water is there?

2. AccessWho gets water?

How is it shared?How is it shared?

3. Hazard:Are people hit by water-related problems?

Floods, droughts, disease

4. Use and abuseHow well do people convert water into benefit?

Do they damage the resource?

1 Water scarcity

• More people = greater

scarcity per capita

• Pressure points emerging

– Indus

– Yellow

– Limpopo

• But no simple relationship

between availability and

poverty

Water availability is one poverty factor…of many

Drought

Poor

educationPoverty

From Sao Francisco

Torres et al., 2008

Access to

credit

Conclusions about scarcity:Scarcity: less influential than

we thought

GNI vs Water

40,000

50,000

Per capita income vs. water

availability

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Water availability (m3/cap)

GNI ($/cap PPP)

Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP

World Bank, 2008

2 Access to waterLocal to international

% of population with

access to safe drinking water.

(From Gleick, 2001)

Who uses the water?

1.0

Capacity limit

Ganges

Sao Francisco

Nile

2,042 bcmNi

Sa o F r a n c i s c o

6 2 2 b c m

SF

M ekong

1,19 5 bcmM Ganges

1,167 bcmG

ET

(normalised)

Andean0.0

0.5

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

Mekong

Sao Francisco

Volta

Yellow River

NileLimpopo

IndusKarkeh

Fish

Livestock

Crops

Yellow

384 bcmYR

Limpopo

229 bcm

L

Woodland / other

K a r kh eh

2 1 , 4 0 2 mcm

K

Grass

Irrigation

Rainfed cropping

Net runoff Rainfall

(normalised)

Who uses the

water?

Indus

200 150 100 50 0

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Water use (mcm)

How people develop from water use:

Globally, irrigation supports dense populations….

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Ganges

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Water use (mcm)

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

Yellow

200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Water use (mcm)

Mekong

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

Water use (mcm)

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Relative values better than absolutes

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Limpopo

20 15 10 5 0

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Water use (mcm)

Volta

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Water use (mcm)

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

…but not in Africa (or Latin America)

20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

Sao Francisco

20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Water use (mcm)

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Nile

200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000

Water use (mcm)

Sao Francisco basin

2 worlds..haves and have-nots

Limpopo

These farmers have access to water

These farmers do not …

Ganges

• Uncontrolled groundwater use

GW pumps in Indus-

Ganges basin

Photos: Fred PearceMap: Sharma et al, 2009

Nile

• Egypt needs every

drop [from Ethiopia]

Mekong In most places this flood would be a

problem…..

To these people, flood = fish

Conclusions about access:

• Infrastructure still lacking in many regions: a

service problem

• Widespread problems of water-sharing: A

resource problem resource problem

– local to international scale

• Governance a widespread and difficult issue

– Balancing demands of water - land - development

– Balancing demands of many groups of people

3 Water-related hazards

• Drought

• Flood

• Disease

Flood, drought: Global scale hazards

Volta Malaria

Disease: Malaria Endemicity: 2007

Conclusions about water-related hazards

• Hazards hit the

poor hardest

• Hazards prevent

critical investment critical investment

to get out of

poverty

4 Water use & abuse

– Water productivity must improve to meet demand

Water productivity:In some places responding to demand

0.400

0.600

0.800

Water productivity, kg/m

3

VN, Mekong Delta

Vietnam

VN Central

Highlands

Mac Kirby, 2007

0.000

0.200

0.400

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Water productivity, kg/m

Rice

Laos

CambodiaNE Thailand

In some places very high Yellow River water productivity(irrigated)

48Ringler & Ximing 2009

Wprod (rainfed)_

49

Ringler & Ximing 2009

In most places, water productivity is

VERY low: Africa, Latin America

• Crop water productivity

generally very low (<10% of

potential)

• Reflects lower pressure on • Reflects lower pressure on

land resources

• Livestock, fish important

• Huge potential for

improvement

Conclusions about water productivity

• Generally very low

– Major potential for

improvement

• Few data on total

Wpr (estimated potential)

YR• Few data on total

benefits and costs

– Multiple uses

– Net productivity VoltaLimpopo

Nile

Niger

IGB

YR

Mekong

Impact of Climate Change

• On scarcity– Some basins drier, others wetter

– Rainfall patterns changing

• On access (conflict)– Uncertainty makes agreement more difficult – Uncertainty makes agreement more difficult

• Demand for green power

• Flow projections uncertain

• On hazard– Unprecedented events are unpredictable

• On use– Investment of co-factors more difficult

Uncertainty brings MAJOR problems

Agriculture vs GNI

50,000

• The water and food crisis is really a development crisis

• How does water constrain development?

• How does development pressurise water resources?

Final thoughts

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Agricultural contribution to GDP (%)

Gross National Income ($/capita)

What factors are preventing people

moving “up the slide”?

Basins differ in their position on a development trajectory%

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n o

f a

gri

cult

ure

to

GD

P

Volta

Niger

Limpopo

World Bank, 2007

% Rural poor

% C

on

trib

uti

on

of

ag

ricu

ltu

re t

o G

DP

Sao

Francisco

Karkheh Mekong

Andes

IGB

YR

Nile

Agriculture as % of GDP

Niger

Nile

IGB

VoltaAgricultural

Rural poverty

Agriculture as % of GDP

AndesSao Fran

Karkheh Yellow

IGBLimpopo

Mekong

Transitional

Industrial

…so the major issues vary between basins

Agriculture as % of GDP

Niger

Nile

IGB

Volta

Agriculture only

Extreme poverty

Low WR development (no irrigation)

Complex LLH support

(Livestock and fish may dominate)

Rural poverty

Agriculture as % of GDP

AndesSao Fran

Karkheh Yellow

IGBLimpopo

Mekong

Some sectors moving

Pressure on others

Agriculture ‘left behind?’

Increased vulnerabilityMarkets very active

Rural poor in pockets

Improved potential for

ecosystem services

Conclusions

• There is a water and food threat– Will cause more crises if not responded to

• Some clearly solvable needs– Better sharing and infrastructure

– Hazard management– Hazard management

– Improved eco-efficiency (water productivity)

• Solutions depend on political processes– Resource sharing

– Use valuation

– Assessment under uncertainty

Muchas gracias por su amable atencion