sheila walsh reddy the nature conservancy

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Sheila Walsh ReddyThe Nature Conservancy

Enabling Businesses To Evaluate the Role of Habitats in Hurricane Risk Mitigation

Growing business risk….

(KPMG 2011)

1. Climate Change2. Energy & Fuel3. Material Resource Scarcity4. Water Scarcity5. Population Growth6. Urbanization7. Wealth8. Food Security9. Ecosystem Decline10.Deforestation

Sources:1. U.S. Congress, Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Bills – HR 4939, PL 109-234 and HR 3673, PL 109-62 (2005), 2. Draft Comprehensive Coast-wide Ecosystem Restoration Study, Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, October 2003

…..and business opportunities.

Sustainably managing ecosystems makes economic sense. (MEA 2005)

Hurricane Katrina$110 billionrelief fund 1

$14 billionrestoration 2

Need Tools To Measure Missing Assets and Liabilities

$

Manufactured Capital

Natural Capital

(Photo credit: Jen Molnar, Wikicommons)

Human Capital

Growing conservation challenges…..

TNC 1955

……global conservation needs partnerships.

TNC 2013: priority areas

TNC Lands (USA)

Nature Conservancy-Dow Collaboration

To find ways for companies to incorporate the value of nature

into business decisions.

Jennifer Molnar

TNC-Dow Pilot site analyses

Globe: http://www.worldmapsonline.com/earth_satellite_image_mural.htm; Photos: Jennifer Molnar

Freeport, Texas

Santa Vitória, Brazil

• Air quality via reforestation

• Coastal protection • Freshwater supply

• Agricultural supply chain

Freeport: Hurricane Risk Mitigation

Globe: http://www.worldmapsonline.com/earth_satellite_image_mural.htm; Photos: Jennifer Molnar

Hypothesis:Understanding the role of coastal habitats in storm protection will improve levee design and reduce costs, especially in the face of sea level rise

The Problem

Global Losses from Natural Hazards are Increasing

Billi

ons U

S$

The Opportunity

Ecosystems May Mitigate Losses

Natural and Built Infrastructure

And?Or?

Salt marsh Levee or Sea wall

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Freeport: Hurricane Risk Mitigation

Valuation for Corporate Coastal Hazard Mitigation

Natural Hazard Mitigation

Economic Costs and Benefits to

Business and Public

Levees

Additional Benefits

(e.g. Recreation)

Biodiversity

Habitat

Scenario Comparisons

Coastal Habitat LeveeCoastal Habitat +Levee Designed for Coastal Habitat

Methods: Overview

• Model future land cover with sea level rise, development

• Identify levee design for 100 yr storm• Analyze flood and damages from Cat 1-5 storms• Compare avoided damages• Assess other public and ecosystem benefits• Evaluate opportunities to enhance/protect

values

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Sea Level Rise and Decreasing Marsh Habitat

35% decrease in marsh9% decrease in marsh

Current 2050, 0.57 m sea level rise 2100, 1.29 m sea level rise

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Sea Level Rise and Marsh Loss Increases Risk from a 100 yr Storm in 2050

0.6 m Sea Level Rise

12% Higher Floods

9% Higher Levee Costs

Mitigating Effect of Habitat

1% Lower Floods

1% Lower Levee Costs

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Small Private and Large Public Benefits from Habitat

• Habitat for >200 Species

• Habitat for 12 Fisheries

• Carbon Sequestration - Negative in long-term

Additional Habitat Values:

*Chart not to scale

*

Restoration May Maintain/Improve Benefits

Restored Dry Lands

c

Other Potential Opportunities for Coastal Protection?

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c

Outcomes

The Value of Information for Risk Management

Science:Link ecological change

to business value

Business method: Ability to value missing

assets

Inform Conservation/

Business Priorities:When do marshes have

significant protective values?

Future Challenges: An Invitation

Science:Link ecological change

to business value

Future Challenges: An Invitation

Business method: Ability to value missing

assets

Future Challenges: An Invitation

Inform Conservation/

Business Priorities:When do marshes have

significant protective values?

Acknowledgments• TNC-Sustainability Science: Sheila Walsh (co-lead), Tim

Boucher, Jon Fisher, Anthony Rogers, Alex Maas, Jen Molnar• Dow: Doug Whipple (co-lead), Daniel Ramirez, John DiMuro,

Judy Gunderson• TNC-TX: Jorge Brenner, Michael Thompson• Natural Capital Project: Greg Guannel, Rob Griffin, Joe Faries,

Joey Bernhardt, Greg Verutes, Spencer Wood, Jess Silver, Jodie Toft, Anne Guerry

• TNC-Global Marine: Mike Beck, Chris Shepard• Warren Pinnacle Consulting: Jonathon Clough, Marco Propato,

Amy Polaczyk• AIR: Akshay Gupta, Andrew Kao• Funding: Dow Chemical Company Foundation

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Extra Slides

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Landcover Change

Value of nature

Company

Jennifer Molnar

Public

Ecosystems

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Hybrid and Levee Infrastructure Scenarios Provide Similar Levels of Private Protection