shared vision planning through computer aided dispute resolution stacy langsdale, p.e., ph.d....

Shared Vision Planning through

Computer Aided Dispute Resolution

Stacy Langsdale, P.E., Ph.D.Institute for Water Resources, USACE

www.SharedVisionPlanning.us

Water resource planning & management is characterized by…

• Persistent conflict

• Complexity & uncertainty in natural systems (hydrology, ecology, climate change)

• Conflicting interests & values

• Interest groups and the public demanding involvement

1:50

Integrated Assessment (Rotmans and van Asselt 1996)

• Place problem in broader context

• Assist with trend analysis

• Assess alternatives

• Framework to structure knowledge

• Translate uncertainties into risk

• Identify research gaps

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Participatory Integrated Assessment

• More science does not eliminate uncertainty

• Post-modernist view: science is subjective

• Participants define value-based parameters

• Involvement of the client helps to keep work relevant to their needs

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Shared Vision Planning

Researchers The Community

10:15

Shared Vision Planning builds:

• understanding of the system

• confidence in the analysis

• trust among parties

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Leading participatory planning & management requires:

Technical Tools• Understand basic

hydrology, ecology, economics, etc

• Accurately represent the linkages between these areas

Process Skills• Understand

institutional setting• Determine ways to

engage Stakeholders• Build trust

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Tier I: Conceptual Framework

Tier II: Integrated Planning / Screening / Negotiating Model

Tier III: Detailed Data Sets and Numerical Models

HydrologyQuality EcologicEconomi

c

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System Dynamics

• Developed by Jay Forrester at MIT in 1950’s.• Contrast to Reductionist approaches• Applied to Business Mgt, Urban Planning, and

Global Modeling (Limits to Growth)• STELLA, ModSim, Vensim

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15:25

System Dynamics Principles (Richmond, 2004)

• 10,000-Metre View

• Dynamic Thinking– Events -> Patterns -> Causes

• System as Cause

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SVP along the Rio Grande: process and products

Jesse RoachSandia National Labs

18:57

•Snowmelt driven system•Most water originates in the north •Majority of demand in the south

•Human water use•Surface water use by agriculture (senior)•Groundwater use by municipalities (junior)

•Management challenges•Fully allocated and limited supply•Endangered species habitat•Surface water deliveries to Texas•Unsustainable groundwater use by cities•Growing population•Drought prone

•Established technical analysis tools•URGWOM: Daily timestep RiverWare based operations, accounting, forecasting and planning surface water model•ET Toolbox: USBoR product for ET estimation•MODFLOW: 3 regional gw models

Rio Grande system in New Mexico

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SVP along Rio Grande system in New Mexico

•New Mexico water planning process:•16 planning regions• Each tasked with developing a regional water plan

•2002-2004 SVP used in “Middle Rio Grande” region:• Model used to help develop regional water plan.• Seeking low cost and sustainable sw and gw use.• Annual timestep, spatially lumped.•SVP process with non-technical group.

• 2004-2007 next generation of the model• Desire among water managers for more spatial and temporal resolution in a rapid “screening” and public outreach tool.• Monthly timestep, spatially resolved and extended• SVP process with technical group in order to incorporate physical processes as represented by existing analysis tools.

River

Regional Aquifer

WellShallow Aquifer

ETRecharge

Cities along the river

1 2

3

1

2

3

Municipal water use has historically been supplied 100% from gw.

Indoor municipal water use goes to wwtp and from there to river.

Essentially all outdoor municipal water use is lost to atmosphere.

Groundwater Supply, Surface Water Return

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