session 20 jörg beckman

Ranking Performance: the impact on transport policy

www.mobilityacademy.chjbeckmann@tcs.ch

«The founding father of the Mobility Academy»

Platform for future-oriented debatesThink TankFurther Education„Better Mobility with Less Risks“

«Fields and parameters impacting on transport»

Climate Change

European policy NationalPolicies

Local/regional policies

Traffic systemmanagement

DemographyEconomicsInvestments

Internalisation of external costs

Mobility View

Power Train

Energy supply

Work

Supply strategiesMobility services

Society andlifestyles

Technology, innovations

Politics

Economic, spatial, and demographic development

Following IFMO 2007

Trendscanning

5

Retrombilität

„How good is transport in Switzerland?“

Regular RankingsIn partnership with other „Lead Agencies“Commuicated via different electronic formats (blogs, podcasts, etc.)

How successful have we been in reducing road accidents?

For CH: Minus 50% every 10 years:

– 2010: 300– 2020: 150– 2030: 75– 2040: 38– 2050: 19

EU Road Safety Target: Even the good can still be better

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Fran

ce

Luxe

mbourg

Belgium

Portug

al

Switzerl

and

Sweden

Netherl

ands

Denmark

German

yLa

tvia

Austria

Spain

Norway

Italy*

Estonia

Greece

Finlan

dSlov

akia

U.K.

Sloven

iaIre

land

Poland

Hun

gary

Czech

Rep

ublic

Cyp

rus Malta

Lithu

ania

Drink DrivingSpeedingSeat Belt Wearing and Seat Belt RemindersAgeing SocietyDivided RoadsCapitols

Steps of Engagement

time

Engagement

Science

Champions

Political Leaders

Society at large

Can benchmarking replace legislation?

„A non mandatory global automotive fueleconomy target of 140 gCO2/km for passenger cars

should be adopted; Such a global fuel economy targetcould be used as an international benchmark to assessprogress in the fuel efficiency of the global fleet of new

motor vehicles.“

Which country has the most sustainable transport system?

11

Ecological, social and economic indicators

12

Source: VTPI, 2008

«The art of setting a target/developing a vision»

Measure Forecasting BackcastingPhilosophy • Justification of policies

• Determinism/causal chains• Exploring the future• Causilities/intentions

Perspective • Dominant Trends• Probabilities• Marginal Changes• Matching current trends

• The need to solve a problem• Desired future• Considering human choice• Strategic decisions

Approach • Extrapolation• Elasticities

• Idenfication of likely futures• Analysing the conditions

Method • Econometric Models• Mathematical Algorythms

• Partial extrapolations• Normative/dynamic models• Delphi/Expert interviews

Nach VIBAT 2006

Example: European Road Safety target

Example: Swedish Vision Zero

Mobility 2030 according to the WBCSD: goals but no targets

1. Conventional emissions should not constitute a significant public health concern

2. Limit GHG emissions down to sustainable levels3. Significantly reduce the number of deaths and injuries4. Reduce transport-related noise5. Mitigate congestion6. Narrow the “mobility opportunity divides”7. Preserve and enhance the mobility opportunities

Transport by 2050: The Good Mobility Index

1. Road Safety: minus 50% every decade

2. Air pollution: zeronising conventional emissions

3. GHG-emissions: flipping the coin – from 95% to 5%

4. Energy efficiency: 0,1kWh/km or better

5. Economic efficiency: “how many pkm/€”

6. Health: 50% of all trips below 3km human co-powered

7. Space consumption: capping daily distances at current levels

Good Mobility: The Basic Formula

Transport Volume [pkm]

16

GHG-Emissions [t CO2] + Deaths + Infrastructure Investment [€] GM =

Ecologicalsustainability

Socialsustainability

Economicsustainability

Good (Road) Mobility

Transport VolumeR [pkm]

17

GHG-EmissionsR [t CO2] + DeathsR + Infrastr. Inv. & Maint. R[€] GMR =

25 €/t 1.000.000€/death €sustainability

[pkm/€]

GMIR – A first approximation

18

GMIR – Are infrastructure costs too high in Switzerland?

19

GMIR – Are GHG-Emissions and deaths undervalued?

20

When do rankings have an impact?

• Get the scientists to agree• Link the rankings to a target• Paint a picture of tomorrow• Engage society• Involve the Champions and encourage the „Loosers“• Identify and Confront those resposible/in charge• Talk about it a lot• Get the timing right• Propose measures (legislation, technolgies etc.)• Continue...