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Commodity Market Outlook: Supply and Demand for Field Crops
September 2017
Commodity Market Outlook
Supply and Demand for Field Crops September 2017
H. Scott Stiles
Instructor and Extension Economist
University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture 870.972.2481
sstiles@uaex.edu
University of Arkansas, United States Department of Agriculture and County Governments
Cooperating. The Division of Agriculture offers its programs to all eligible persons regardless
of race, color, national origin, religion, gender, age, disability, marital or veteran status, or
any other legally protected status, and is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.
USDA September 2017 Supply/Demand Report corn, soybeans, wheat
USDA September
2017
USDA August
2017
month-to-month
change
USDA 2017 Yield: bushels per acre
Corn 169.9 169.5 + .4
Soybeans 49.9 49.4 + .5
USDA 2017 Production: billion bushels
Corn 14.184 14.153 + .031
Soybeans 4.431 4.381 + .050
USDA 2017 Ending Stocks: billion bushels
Corn 2.335 2.273 + .062
Soybeans .475 .475 0
Wheat .933 .933 0
Source: USDA, September 2017.
USDA September 2017 Supply/Demand Report rice, cotton
USDA September
2017
USDA August
2017
month-to-month
change
USDA 2017 Production:
Long-Grain (million cwt.) 127.1 132.4 - 5.3
Medium-Grain (million cwt.) 52.6 54.0 - 1.4
Cotton (million bales) 21.76 20.55 +1.21
USDA 2017 Ending Stocks:
Long-Grain (million cwt.) 16.1 17.7 - 1.6
Medium-Grain (million cwt.) 9.3 9.5 - .2
Cotton (million bales) 6.00 5.80 +.2
Source: USDA, September 2017.
Soybeans
September 2017
USDA 2016/17
September
USDA 2017/18
August
USDA 2017/18
September
Million bushels
Beginning Stocks 197 370 345
Production 4,307 4,381 4,431
Total Supply 4,528 4,777 4,801
Crush 1,895 1,940 1,940
Exports 2,170 2,225 2,250
Seed & Residual 118 136 136
Total Use 4,183 4,301 4,326
Ending Stocks 345 475 475
Average Farm Price ($/bu.) $9.50 $9.30 $9.20
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
Source: USDA.
U.S. Soybeans, Key Supply-Side Adjustments
2017/18 U.S. Soybean Yield
49.4
49.9
49.1
49.2
49.3
49.4
49.5
49.6
49.7
49.8
49.9
50
August September
bu
./ac.
2017/18 U.S. Soybean Production
4.381
4.431
4.2
4.24
4.28
4.32
4.36
4.4
4.44
4.48
August September
bil
lio
n b
u.
Source: USDA, September 2017.
U.S. Soybean Exports / China Soybean Imports
1.317
1.638 1.843
1.942 2.170 2.250 2.200
2.585
2.879 3.058
3.380 3.491
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 est. 2017 proj.
bil
lio
n b
u.
marketing year
U.S. exports China imports
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service .
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks 2006 – 2017 projected
573
92
191 197
345
475
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
mil
lio
n b
us
he
ls
marketing year
Source: USDA, September 2017.
U.S. Soybean Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 2008 – 2017 projected
$14.40
$13.00
$9.50 $9.20
2.6%
8.2%
11.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
$8.50
$9.50
$10.50
$11.50
$12.50
$13.50
$14.50
$15.50
sto
cks-u
se %
$/b
u.
avg. producer price stocks-use %
Source: USDA, September 2017.
CBOT November 2017 Soybean Futures daily chart
Source: Barchart.com Inc. © 2017
Rice
September 2017
USDA 2016/17
September
USDA 2017/18
August
USDA 2017/18
September
Million cwt.
Beginning Stocks 22.7 31.3 31.0
Production 166.5 132.4 127.1
Total Supply 209.4 184.7 179.1
Domestic & Residual 99.7 90 88
Exports 78.7 77 75
Total Use 178.4 167 163
Ending Stocks 31.0 17.7 16.1
Average Farm Price ($/bu.) $4.33 $5.40 $5.63
U.S. Long-Grain Supply and Use
Source: USDA.
U.S. Long-Grain Production
131.90 133.40
166.50
127.1
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00
170.00
180.00
190.00
mil
lio
n c
wt.
marketing year
Source: USDA-ERS.
U.S. Long-Grain Ending Stocks 2008 – 2017 projected
16.2
31.3
16.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
mil
lio
n c
wt.
marketing year
Source: USDA, September 2017.
U.S. Long-Grain Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 2008 – 2017 projected
$6.71 $6.93
$4.33
$5.63
11.9%
10.3% 9.9% 9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
sto
cks-u
se %
$/b
u.
avg. producer price stocks-use %
Source: USDA, September 2017.
November 2017 CBOT Rough Rice Futures weekly continuation
$13.44 Oct. 2015 high
Source: Barchart.com Inc. © 2017
Corn
September 2017
USDA 2016/17
September
USDA 2017/18
August
USDA 2017/18
September
Million bushels
Beginning Stocks 1,737 2,370 2,350
Production 15,148 14,153 14,184
Total Supply 16,940 16,573 16,585
Feed & Residual 5,425 5,450 5,475
Food, Seed, Industrial 6,870 7,000 6,925
Exports 2,295 1,850 1,850
Total Use 14,590 14,300 14,250
Ending Stocks 2,350 2,273 2,335
Average Farm Price ($/bu.) $3.35 $3.30 $3.20
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
Source: USDA.
U.S. Corn, Key Supply-Side Adjustments
2017/18 U.S. Corn Yield
169.5
169.9
169
169.4
169.8
170.2
August September
bu
./ac.
2017/18 U.S. Corn Production
14.153
14.184
14.12
14.16
14.2
August September
bil
lio
n b
u.
Source: USDA, September 2017.
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks 2008 – 2017 projected
1.232
1.731 1.737
2.350 2.335
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016est
2017proj
bil
lio
n b
us
he
ls
marketing year
Source: USDA, September 2017.
U.S. Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 2008 – 2017 projected
$6.89
$3.35 $3.20 7.4%
16.1% 16.4%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
sto
cks-u
se %
$/b
u.
avg. producer price stocks-use %
Source: USDA, September 2017.
CBOT December 2017 Corn Futures daily chart
Source: Barchart.com Inc. © 2017
Cotton
September 2017
USDA 2016/17
September
USDA 2017/18
August
USDA 2017/18
September
million bales
Production 17.17 20.55 21.76
Total Supply 20.98 23.36 24.52
• Mill Use 3.25 3.35 3.35
• Exports 14.92 14.20 14.90
Total Use 18.17 17.55 18.25
Ending Stocks 2.75 5.80 6.00
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use
Source: USDA.
U.S. Cotton Production 2006 – 2017 projected
21.6
12.9
17.2
21.8
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
mil
lio
n b
ale
s
marketing year
Source: USDA-ERS.
U.S. Cotton Exports 2010 – 2017 projected
14.38
9.15
14.92 14.90
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.00
13.00
15.00
17.00
mil
lio
n b
ale
s
marketing year Source: USDA-ERS.
U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks 2008 – 2017 projected
6.34
2.75
6.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
mil
lio
n b
ale
s
marketing year
Source: USDA, September 2017.
U.S. Cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 2008 – 2017 projected
$0.61 $0.60
38.0%
30.2%
32.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
$0.45
$0.55
$0.65
$0.75
$0.85
$0.95
$1.05
sto
cks-u
se %
$/l
b.
avg. producer price stocks-use %
Source: USDA, September 2017.
December 2017 Cotton Futures daily chart
Source: Barchart.com Inc. © 2017
Wheat
September 2017
CBOT July 2018 Wheat Futures daily chart
Source: Barchart.com Inc. © 2017
U.S. SRW Total Demand Trend 2013 – 2017 projected
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
mil
lio
n b
u.
marketing year
seed
exports
feed
food
Source: USDA-ERS.
U.S. SRW Demand by Category 2013 – 2017 projected
171
162 147
55
283
90
113
229
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
mil
lio
n b
u.
food & seed feed exports carry-out
Source: USDA-ERS.
U.S. SRW Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-Use %
242 229
69% 75%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016est.
2017proj.
% s
tocks-u
se
milli
on
bu
.
marketing year Source: USDA-ERS.
Commodity Calendar
• The next USDA supply/demand report is
October 12.
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