seminar yade-taondyande-05-06-13
Post on 12-Nov-2014
568 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
www.iita.org
WEST AFRICA HUB SEMINAR 05 JUNE 2013
FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICA
By Mbaye Yade and Maurice Taondyandé
ReSAKSS-WA
www.iita.org
INTRODUCTION
ANALYSIS BASED ON HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPLEMENTED IN 7 COUNTRIES:
• BURKINA FASO (1994 & 2009)• COTE D’IVOIRE (1993 & 2008)• GHANA (1992 & 2006)• MALI (1989 & 2006)• NIGER (2005)• SENEGAL (1994 & 2002)• TOGO (2006)• COUNTRIES FOOD BALANCE SHEETS
www.iita.org
OUTLINEHOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS AND
INEQUALITIESCALORIE INTAKEABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARE TRENDSFOOD CONSUMPTION (QUANTITIES)
TRENDSDETERMINANTS OF FOOD
CONSUMPTION DYNAMICSFOOD CONSUMPTION FORECAST
www.iita.org
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
www.iita.org
HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS
www.iita.org
INEQUALITY TRENDS
www.iita.org
CALORIE INTAKE
www.iita.org
DIET DIVERSIFICATION
CONTRIBUTION OF FOOD PRODUCTS TO CALORIE INTAKE
www.iita.org
ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES
Share of food expenditure in total expenditure
www.iita.org
ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES
Food expenditure share according to household income level
www.iita.org
ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES
Absolute budget shares in 2000s
Item and item groups Burkina
Faso 2009 Mali 2006Senegal
2002Côte d'Ivoire
2008Ghana 2006
Cereals 55.1 44.5 31.4 25.7 22.8
Rice 12.8 19 17 18.6 11.2
Maize 11.9 4 0.5 3.6 5.5
Millet/sorghum 27 17.7 4.2 0.4 0.6
Wheat 2.3 3.5 9.3 3 5.1
Other cereals 1.1 0.4 0.4 0 0.3
Root/tub and plantain 0.6 1.9 2.4 16.8 15
Cassava 6.6 7.1
Yam 6.2 4.8
Other root and tub 0.9 0.4
Plantain 3 2.8
Fruits and vegetables 6.1 9.9 12.6 15.7 13.9
Animal products and fish 10 22.2 25.8 22.6 29.2
www.iita.org
ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARERice Trends
www.iita.org
ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESMaize Trends
www.iita.org
ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESMillet/sorghum Trends
www.iita.org
ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESWheat Trends
www.iita.org
ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESRoots and tubers Trends
www.iita.org
ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESFruits and vegetables Trends
www.iita.org
ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESAnimals products and fish
www.iita.org
PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS RICE
www.iita.org
GREAT DEPENDENCY ON RICE IMPORTS
www.iita.org
PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDSMILLET/SORGHUM
www.iita.org
PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS WHEAT
www.iita.org
WHAT DRIVED THE CHANGES IN FOOD CONSUMPTION
www.iita.org
ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE
www.iita.org
ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE
www.iita.org
FOOD CONSUMPTION OUTLOOK IN WEST AFRICA
www.iita.org
TOTAL MARGINAL BUDGET SHARE OF FOOD DEMAND
www.iita.org
MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF STAPLE PRODUCTS IN URBAN AREAS
www.iita.org
MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF STAPLE PRODUCTS IN RURAL AREAS
www.iita.org
MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS IN URBAN AREAS
www.iita.org
MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS IN RURAL AREAS
www.iita.org
CUMULATED DEMAND FORECAST2010-2020
www.iita.org
CUMULATED DEMAND FORECAST2010-2020
www.iita.org
CUMULATED FOOD BALANCE 2010-2020
www.iita.org
CONCLUSIONS
• CALORIE REQUIREMENTS MET IN AVERAGE IN BURKINA FASO, COTE D’IVOIRE AND SENEGAL; AND NOT IN NIGER AND TOGO
• DIET CHARACTERIZED BY EXCESSIVE CONSUMPTION OF CARBOHYDRATES AND UNDERCONSUMPTION OF FAT AND PROTEIN
• SHARE OF FOOD EXPENDITURE IN TOTAL EXPENDITURE VERY HIGH, RANGING FROM 39% TO 60 %
• INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION OF IMPORTED COMMODITIES (RICE AND WHEAT) AT THE EXPENSE OF LOCAL FOOD
• WITH RESPECT TO ANIMAL PRODUCTS: INCREASE OF FISH IMPORTS AT EXPENSE OF LOCAL MEAT
www.iita.org
CONCLUSIONS
• URBAIZATION SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE OVERALL TRENDS IN FOOD DEMAND, IN PARTICULAR FOR RICE AND WHEAT
• DECREASE IN CONSUMPTION OF LOCAL FOOD CAN BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE POORS WHILE INCREASE IN RICE AND IMPORTED PRODUCTS TO THE RICHER QUINTILES
• PROJECTED IMPORT NEEDS FOR WHEAT (100% OF DEMAND); RICE AND FISH (50% OF DEMAND); CASSAVA (15% OF DEMAND); YAM (10% OF DEMAND)
• PROJECTED EXPORT POTENTIAL FOR MAIZE, MILLET/SORGHUM AND PLANTAIN
www.iita.org
THANK YOU
top related