science to policy: is there a risk? · risk is all about predicting the future in terms of...

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Joint Research Centre The European Commission’s in-house science service

Dr. Stephan Lechner Director Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen

Science to Policy: Is there a risk?

Risk is all about predicting the future in terms of probabilities

• Scientists need to express themselves accurately, i.e. mathematically.

• Mathematics are not understood very well by the general public

June 2014 2

Communicating science to laypersons might result in misinterpretation

Taking Science to Policy…

June 2014 3

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Science: Structural Assessment

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Policy: EUROCODES • EUROCODES have replaced

27 national standards in 2010

• 15 years of development

• Collaboration of policy makers, researchers and standardisation organisations

• Protecting the European Citizen

• Interest in Russia and China

Risk: Real Earthquake

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L'Aquila, Italy, April 2009 • 308 killed • 1500 wounded

• 30.000 homeless

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L'Aquila, Italy, April 2009 • 308 killed • 1500 wounded

• 30.000 homeless • Scientists sentenced!

Risk: Real Earthquake

Space Weather: Risk of power blackouts due to solar storms

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Financial Crisis: Systemic Risk of banks "too big to fail"

Cyber Security: Risk of a successful cyber attack

Maritime Cargo Containers: Risk Assessment by automated itinerary analysis

More examples? Tsunami modeling: Risk for coastal areas

Yet more … • Food Authenticity • Pandemics Spread • Flood Prediction • Nuclear Safety • Chemical incidents • Food contact materials • Nano particles • Shale gas fracking • …

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Conclusions • Yes, there is a risk!

• Refrain from "zero risk" statements!

• Listen well to the next presentations…

http://alphonsuspeck.wordpress.com/category/articles/

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