science advances our understanding of headwater...

Science Advances Our Understanding

of Headwater Systems

Trim the Tribs Research

Les Stanfield

Ecohealth Solutions

November 7th, 2016

Background: 2000 – 2014

• Input variables:

– Fish (species and community); benthos; temperature; baseflow; peak flows; habitat

• Built predictive models based on:

– Land use

– geology, climate, area, etc.

– Barriers

– Instream habitat

– Biological interactions

Most Important Findings!

• Strong Threshold effect at Low development

• UPLAND AREAS PREDICTED FISH AS

WELL AS EVEN A 200 M RIPARIAN

BUFFER!!!!

Catchment MNR water layer

Unmapped drainage

features are

Important!

From Stanfield and Hopkins (2015)

Scale Drainage

DensityMNRF

Water layer 1.6

20 ha 1.9

10 ha 2.9

5 ha 4.3

1 ha 10.4

Other Ontario Findings

• The finer the soil the more vulnerable to flashy

flows, (Stanfield and Jackson, 2008)

• They transport a LOT of food and organic

material to fish rearing areas (Idika, 2010;

Henningar 2012)

• HIGHLY variable across seasons (Headwater

monitoring Working Group, 2011)

• Entombing can address sediment but not flows or

water quality

“The only effects that matter are

cumulative effects”(Merriam pers. Comm)

“

Trim the Tribs1

• Workshop 2013; Funding 2014

Questions:

– Which tribs are most important to

ecosystem integrity

– Which and How many tribs can be

“pruned” before Impacting

1. Hydrology

2. Biota (Fish and Benthos)

3. Ecological processes (sediments,

nutrients etc..)

1. Cumulative effects from alteration of headwater drainage features and the loss of

ecosystem integrity of river networks : http://www.trca.on.ca/dotAsset/190979.pdf

Multiple Approaches 1. Inventory of conditions (landscape

and site level)

2. Landscape modeling that will hindcast

to reference states

3. Quantify cumulative contributions of

Headwater Drainage Features

4. Develop Process based models for

flow, nutrients and decomposition

Cumulative Effects in a Riverscape

Across Scales

• John Richardson UBC (lead)

Lenka Kuglerova,

Brian Kielstra

• Dan Moore - UBC

• Jim Buttle – Trent

Ibrahim Rashid

• Antoine Morin (UofO)

• Bernadette Charpentier

Headwater/forest specialist

riparian health and processes

Spatial patterns, nesting, benthics

Hydrologic changes (processes)

Predictive changes in flows

SWAT predictive modeling

Understanding variance in fish

and benthos

Laura Del Giudice (TRCA) & Les Stanfield

Inventory using OSAP Protocols

Nested Analysis Approach

Study Scale Measurable

indicator/protocol

Predictor Variables

Headwater

Segment (fishless)

Headwater condition -

protocol

sediment/flows/connectivity

Segment Condition

- GIS measured &/or

supplemented with rare

features (GWU, etc.)

Mid-reach Segment Biological indicators

(Fish/benthos) and possible

diagnostic indicators (e.g.,

water quality, substrate etc..)

Weighted condition to a

point on the network e.g.,

f( C)= f(A1) + f(A2)+ f(A3) +I

f= HDF, C= mainstream,

I= local conditions

Watershed Summary statistic for

mainstem (e.g., flows)

Weighted condition to a

downstream point on the

network (i.e., outlet)

Understanding Hierarchical

Structure HDF Sites

Developing Rating System from OSAP data

1

1

111

1

1

12

3

2

2

Fish community unimpaired

3

13

1565

1

15

104

8

14

13

Land Disturbance Ratings

8

Below the threshold (9) but 50 % of HDF above threshold,

3

13

1565

1

15

104

8

14

13

But geology/soils modify response

8

What if it was reversed, would the

stream still be healthy?

Well drained,

Hummocky soils

Poorly drained,

Flat soils

Modeling Fish & Benthos

(Antoine Morin, Bernadette Charpentier)

• Valued Ecosystem Components (VECs)

• Random Forest Models

– Expansion on CART

– Combination of multiple

trees

– Develops Predictions and

Classifications (e.g., abundance of brook trout and

predictors)

– Hindcasting (e.g., obs State- Hindcasted State)

Example from SMARTERAntoine Morin, Élysabeth Théberge, Marie-Ève

André

• Hindcasted State of Benthics & fish

As of November 4th ….

• 20 fish metrics have been modeled using

Catchment data

• R2 range from 0.5 – 0.8 !

No surprise:

• Geology & catchment size best predictors

• Urban has bigger influence than Agriculture

Next Steps

• Complete all metrics

• repeat for benthics

• Calculate hindcasted and disturbance states

• Repeat with HDF summarized data

(e.g., R2catchment 0.50 - R2

HDF 0.61 = 0.11)

ALSO

• Develop and repeat with multi-metric index

• Test space for time assumption ….HUGE!

• Soil and Water Assessment Tool

– Validate against:

– WSC-hydata data to validate mainstem

– Headwater &

spotflow discharge

– Flashiness

Modeling Hydrology

(Ibrahim Rashid, Jim Buttle, Dan Moore)

Reesor Creek near Altona (17.15 km2)

• Reesor Creek near Altona (sub-basin of Duffins

Creek) selected to calibrate SWAT

• Land use is dominated by agriculture; forested

headwaters

• Calibrated parameters transferable to other

basins

21

Observed and predicted streamflow for

calibration period

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1973-12-02 1974-03-12 1974-06-20 1974-09-28 1975-01-06 1975-04-16 1975-07-25 1975-11-02 1976-02-10 1976-05-20

Runo

ff (

mm

d-1

)

Reesor Cr near Altona

Observed

Predicted

• Tend to

slightly

overpredict

total

streamflow

• Tend to

underpredict

peak

streamflow

• Seem to be

getting the

flow pathways

correct

(significant

groundwater

discharge to

stream)

Understanding longitudinal

Sources of Variance

• Established sites at regular spacing along rivers,

• Inventory all HDFs

• Inventory Riparian soil biochemistry &

stream benthos &

decomposition rates

(Brian Kielstra, Lenka Kuglerova)

Lynde Creek (Whitby)

Potential Existing

Wilket Creek

Potential Existing

Credit River

Potential Existing

Land Use Gradient

Summary: Risk Factors

• Geology – i.e. porosity

• Watershed Tipping Point lower than

thought

• Entombing/Tile Draining

- increases water delivery downstream

- prevents water purification

• Special features e.g., groundwater

upwellings are important

• Arterial system for the landscape

Final Vision • Build/enhance a Decision Support System

• Incorporate LID, climaate & wetland

restoration

• Incorporate Ecohealth metrics

• Explore how to implement within municipally

based user pays software

• Future sustainable farming policy

Thank you

Contact me at

Les.Stanfield@outlook.com

Check out:

Headwater papers

http://www.trca.on.ca/the-living-city/water-flood-

management/headwater-study.dot

Modeling papers at:

http://www.trca.on.ca/the-living-city/monitoring/southern-

ontario-stream-monitoring-research-team.dot