sébastien mc mahon, cfa · 11.10.2019  · a look at this week’smarkets at the close on thursday...

Weekly economic review

Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA

Senior Portfolio Manager, Diversified Funds and Economist

10/11/19

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A look at this week’s marketsAt the close on Thursday

Source: iA Economics, data via Bloomberg *WTD/YTD = Week-to-date / Year-to-date

Week-to-date Year-to-date

Canadian Bonds (total return) Local currency In CAD Local currency In CAD

FTSE TMX Universe -1.22% 7.50%

FTSE TMX Long -2.42% 14.01%

Corps -1.05% 7.68%

Equities (total return)

S&P/TSX -0.10% 17.49%

S&P 500 -0.43% -0.61% 19.07% 16.05%

MSCI EAFE 0.63% 0.28% 13.69% 8.42%

MSCI Emerging 0.09% -0.16% 7.02% 2.79%

Other Current price Return WTD* Return YTD*

Oil (WTI) 53.55 $ 1.40% 17.93%

USD/CAD 0.7524 $ 0.17% 2.60%

Gold 1 493.99 $ -0.71% 16.49%

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What caught our eyes this week

• U.S. – China:

▪ A deal in sight?

• Brexit:

▪ Pathway to an ordered divorce?

• Canada:

▪ The labour market is showing all the resilience of the Canadian economy

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U.S. / China Relationship:A deal in sight?

Source: WSJ et Strategas

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Brexit:A possible breakthrough?

Source: WSJ

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Canada:Jobs report once again beating expectations

Source: iA Economics, data via Bloomberg

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What we’ll be watching next week

• Canada:

▪ CPI Inflation (consensus: 2.0% in September)

▪ Core CPI Inflation (consensus: 2.0% in September)

▪ Manufacturing Sales (last month: -1.3% in July)

• U.S.:

▪ Retail Sales (consensus: +0.3% in September)

▪ Building Permits (consensus: lower at 1340K in September)

▪ Housing Starts (consensus: lower at 1320K in September)

▪ Industrial Production (consensus: lower at -0.1% in September)

• Europe:

▪ Core CPI Inflation (consensus: stable at 1.0% in September)

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To contact us

economics@ia.ca

www.ia.ca/economy

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Disclaimer

Opinions expressed in this presentation are based on actual

market conditions and may change without prior warning. The

aim is in no way to make investment recommendations. The

forecasts given in this presentation do not guarantee returns and

imply risks, uncertainty and assumptions. Although we are

comfortable with these assumptions, there is no guarantee that

they will be confirmed.

Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc.