sarah faulkner, head of leadership email: sarah.faullkner @cfwi.uk

CfWI produces quality intelligence to inform better workforce planning, that improves people’s lives

A vision for the healthcare and public health workforce in Wessex

Plan today to deliver tomorrow: What’s coming over the horizon and what does that mean for the workforce? Sarah Faulkner, Head of LeadershipEmail: sarah.faullkner@cfwi.org.uk

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Agenda

- The CfWIs work and priorities- Looking into the future- What are the big questions?- The medical workforce- Future challenges

The CfWI’s workand priorities

Our vision

To be the national authority on workforce planning and development, providing advice and information to the NHS and social care system.

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Looking into the future

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Planning for the workforce in uncertain times

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How good are we at planning the future?

I think there is a world market for about 5 computers” (Thomas Watson, Chairman, IBM, 1943)

This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously

considered as a means of communication. The device is

inherently of no value to us

(Internal memo, Western Union, 1876)

Worldwide demand for the car will never exceed one million, primarily because of a limitation in the number of available chauffeurs. (Research prediction, Mercedes-Benz, 1900)

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What we did not want to know?"I have great, great confidence in our capital markets and in our financial institutions. Our financial institutions, banks and investment banks, are strong. Our capital markets are resilient. They're efficient. They're flexible." 

“The market turmoil we are experiencing today poses great risk to U.S. taxpayers. When the financial system doesn’t work as it should, Americans’ personal savings, and the ability of consumers and businesses to finance spending, investment and job creation are threatened”. 

March 2008 Henry Paulson, the US Secretary of the

Treasury

AND Six months later…

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Horizon scanning ‘The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning.’ Chief Scientific Adviser’s Committee, Office of Science and Technology (OST) September 2004

Improving the quality of workforce intelligence

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Policy-sensitive modelling

Workforcedata and assumptions

Sensitivity analysis to identify critical parameters

Parameters defining plausible futures

Scenario workshops

Horizon scanning

Outcomes: supply and demand

Workforce model

Delphi Policy interventions

Impact of workforce policy decisions across a range of plausible futures to select the most robust approach

What are the big questions?

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Health: Growth in health spending grinds to a halt

28/06/2012 -  Growth in health spending slowed or fell in real terms in 2010 in almost all OECD countries, reversing a long-term trend of rapid increases, according to OECD Health Data 2012.

UK Health spend c.0.1% growth p.a. for 2012 – 2015

Big picture challenges:Category ChallengeDemographic challenges

• Ageing population and workforce • Long-term conditions and increasing levels of obesity,

diabetes, heart and respiratory problems

Education and training challenges

• Providing person-centred and compassionate care• Higher education reforms and student-driven market• Quality of student training• Development of current workforce• Reforming medical training• Developing public health skills and workforce• Making the most of the constant system changes• Creating a flexible workforce• Responding to a more consultant-present service

Workforce planning methodology challenges

• Long-term workforce planning• Robust data and intelligence• Understanding employer requirements• Forecasting the impact of technological changes

System design challenges

• Uncertainty over whether there is a national or local system

• Getting the incentives right• Integrating health and social care• Uncertainty over funding• Shifting from acute to community care

Ageing population and workforce

What does the health and social care workforce need to look like by 2025 to provide the right care for an ageing population?How many older people specialists will be need by 2025 to adequately care for an ageing population?How will intermediate care services be used to treat an ageing population in 2025How will changes to commissioning and the implementation of a single assessment process across health and social care impact on workforce numbers by 2025?

Developing public health skills and workforce

• What are the institutional changes in the public health sector and how will they influence in public health workforce development by 2025?

• What is the influence of information and communication technologies in the development of the public health workforce by 2025?

• How will changes to the public health workforce affect the rest of the health and social care sector by 2025?

The medical workforce

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Shape of the medical workforce 2012

• ‘Shape of the medical workforce: Starting the debate on the future consultant workforce’ published 8th Feb 2012

• The CfWI is urging employers, the medical profession and policymakers in the healthcare system to start an urgent debate on the future shape of the medical workforce.

http://www.cfwi.org.uk/publications/leaders-report-shape-of-the-medical-workforce

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Medical workforce – key issues

• CfWI projections show that if the system continues to train and recruit doctors at current rates, there could be:• more fully trained hospital doctors than the current

projected demand suggests will be required. • an increase of over 60 per cent in fully trained hospital

doctor headcount by 2020 compared to 2010.• An estimated £6 billion spend on total consultant salary

costs, an increase of over £2.2 billion on the 2010 figure, if all eligible doctors become consultants.

• If services shift to a consultant-present service, there may be about the right number of trainees currently coming through the training pipeline but they are unlikely to be training in the right specialty areas.

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Medical workforce - opportunities• If the system does nothing now then the potential

oversupply of eligible applicants for consultant posts provides a range of opportunities. These include: • to move towards a trained doctor-delivered (or present)

service • to consider new service models and new roles for

doctors, including in a community setting • to drive up quality through increased competition for

appointments to consultant roles• to tackle the issue of data quality especially with regards to

non training doctors• to actively manage the numbers of trainees.

Review of medical and dental student intakes

• CfWI is supporting the HENSE Review Group, which will soon make recommendations on student intakes from 2013 onwards to ensure an adequate and affordable supply of trained doctors and dentists* and advise on constraints to students from overseas

• Our new approach integrates horizon scanning, plausible future scenarios, Delphi expert reviews and new system dynamics modelling and analysis

*Note: this project is looking at the whole workforce, not individual specialties.

Horizon Scanning

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Developing the workforce strategy?

Developing a workforce strategy:

“The biggest desired outcome of LETBs is the transition of the debate from numbers of junior doctors to a vision and strategy for changing the shape and structure of the workforce over five to ten years.“ Dr Adrian Bull, Chief Executive, Queen Victoria NHS Foundation Trust.

Centre for Workforce Intelligence209 – 215 Blackfriars Road, London SE1 8NL T +44 (0)20 7803 2600General enquiries T +44(0)1962 814950 E enquiries@cfwi.org.uk

www.cfwi.org.uk