san francisco economic & residential update · 350k 360k 370k 380k 390k 400k 410k 420k 430k...

San Francisco Economic & Residential Update

YEAR-OVER-YEAR SALES AND PRICE GROWTH*

SAN FRANCISCO CURRENT PERFORMANCE ANNUAL CHANGE

Median CondoMiniuM Resale PRiCe $1,097,500 +15.5%

CondoMiniuM Resale Closings 822 -1.9%

*For three months ending in July 31, 2015 compared to same period in 2014

Source: SFARMLS

Year

Mor

tgag

e (3

0−Ye

ar F

ixed

)

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Source: FRED

CURRENT RATE4.1%

HISTORICAL 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATES

RATE IN 198118.5%

Year

350k

360k

370k

380k

390k

400k

410k

420k

430k

440k

450k

460k

470k

480k

490k

500k

510k

520k

530k

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: EDD

YEAR-OVER-YEAR JOB GROWTH

0

500

1,000

1,500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

Tota

l Uni

ts

Number of Units Available

New Construction

Resales

Source: SFARMLS, Polaris Pacific

SAN FRANCISCO ACTIVE CONDOMINIUM INVENTORY

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Num

ber o

f Mon

ths

0

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: SFARMLS

MRI1.8 MONTHS

SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM MARKET - MONTHS OF REMAINING INVENTORY

0

100

200

300

400

YearYear

$0k

$100k

$200k

$300k

$400k

$500k

$600k

$700k

$800k

$900k

$1000k

$1100k

$1200k

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ResalesMedian Price

Source: SFARMLS

MEDIAN PRICE $1,097,500

SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM PRICES AND SALES

Quarter

1Q05 2Q06 3Q07 4Q08 1Q10 2Q11 3Q12 4Q13 1Q15 2Q16 3Q17 4Q18 1Q20

Ren

ts

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

$2,000

$2,400

$2,800

$3,200

$3,600

$4,000

Source: Axiometrics

FORECAST

SAN FRANCISCO RENTS

Q2 2015 CURRENT RENT$3,045

Map of MarketNumber of Units: 3,168(Source: Polaris Pacific)

3000 1,000

188

776

81,011

6347

91,298

20

50

40

10135

3210

Map of MarketNumber of Units: 8,889(Source: Polaris Pacific)

3000 1,000

10

70

8198

6491

98,113

20

587

40

100

30

CONDOMINIUMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION APARTMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONTOTAL NUMBER: 3,168 TOTAL NUMBER: 8,889

SAN FRANCISCO FUTURE HOUSING SUPPLY BY DISTRICT

LUMINA• Developer: Tishman Speyer• 656 units• Under Construction / Currently Selling• 2016 Completion

PARK 181• Developer: Jay Paul Company• 67 Units• Under Construction • 2016 Completion

THE PACIFIC• Developer: Trumark Urban Co.• 76 Units• Under Construction • 2016 Completion

ROCKWELL• Developer: Oyster Development• 260 Units• Under Construction / Currently Selling• 2016 Completion

72 TOWNSEND• Developer: KB Home• 74 Units• Under Construction / Currently Selling• 2015 Completion

MISSION BAY BLOCK 1• Developer: CIM Group• 350 Units• Under Construction• 2017 Completion

1450 FRANKLIN• Developer: Village Properties• 67 Units• Under Construction• 2016 Completion

KNOX• Developer: Trumark Urban Co.• 91 Units• Under Construction • 2016 Completion

ROWAN• Developer: Trumark Urban Co.• 70 Units• Under Construction • 2016 Completion

ONE FRANKLIN• Developer: JS Sullivan Development• 35 Units• Under Construction • 2016 Completion

T A R G E T A U D I E N C E

G E N X M I L L E N I A L S

I N V E S T O R S P O W E R C O U P L E S

T R E N D

T R E N D

T R E N D

L U X E

P E N T H O U S E

M O D U L A R C A B I N E T P R O G R A M M I N G

MODULAR DESIGN PROGRAMMING

P E N T H O U S E

M O D U L A R C A B I N E T P R O G R A M M I N G

MODULAR DESIGN PROGRAMMING

S K Y L O U N G E

S K Y L O U N G E

S K Y L O U N G E