rooftop pv forecasting
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SLIDE 1
ROOFTOP PV FORECASTING
August 2012
PRESENTED BY ANDREW REDDAWAY
SLIDE 2
ROOFTOP PV AND AEMO
• Rooftop PV masks household and business demand.
• Impacts energy and Maximum Demand (MD) MD.
• Rooftop PV generation is now included in forecasts for electricity demand.o Separate rooftop PV from demand history.o Include as a separate item in forecasts.
SLIDE 3
ROOFTOP PV INFO PAPER 2012
• Published on AEMO’s website:http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Forecasting/2012-Information-Papers
SLIDE 4
PROCESS OVERVIEW
ForecastHistorical capacity
Installed capacity
Future capacity
Historical solar intensity
Sunlight
Historical energy
Energy generation
Future energy
Historical generation
Maximum demand
Future generation
Samples of system output
Actual generation
SLIDE 5
HISTORICAL CAPACITY
There is no perfect data source for installed capacity.
Requested from all 13 DBs in the NEM.• Monthly from 2008.• Filled in data holes.
ORER • Higher than DB data in early period.• Time lags are inherent.
SLIDE 6
HISTORICAL CAPACITY - NEM
SLIDE 7
INTERESTING SOLAR INSTALL NO. 1
SLIDE 8
SUNLIGHT
• Actual monthly sunlight intensity data from BOM
SLIDE 9
HISTORICAL GENERATION - MODEL
• Initial model is simple.• Capital city proxy for region• Annual generation from CEC consumer guide
o kWh expected from a 1 kW system, daily avg. over a year
SLIDE 10
HISTORICAL GENERATION - MODEL
• Monthly % splits from “pvwatts” engineo Draws on its own climate datao Assume north orientation, tilt = latitude
SLIDE 11
HISTORICAL GENERATION – MODEL VALIDATION
• Sample rooftop system generation data from pvoutput.org
SLIDE 12
INTERESTING SOLAR INSTALL NO. 2
SLIDE 13
HISTORICAL GENERATION – MODEL VALIDATION, MELBOURNE
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
1,600.00
1,800.00
Mon
thly
ene
rgy
(kW
h)
Date
Sample Estimate
SLIDE 14
INSTALLED CAPACITY FORECASTS
• Forecasts of Rooftop PV growth consider the following drivers:o Electricity price increaseso Technology costs for solaro Government subsidies
• And barrierso Saturationo Network constraints
SLIDE 15
SATURATION
Assumptions for saturation level:• 75% of suitable dwellings have a rooftop PV system• Average system size: 3.5 kW• Allowance for commercial buildings
• Study by Entura: City of Port Phillip – 4 kW per dwelling.
SLIDE 16
ECONOMIC PAYBACK
Installation Year Slow Uptake scenario Moderate Uptake scenario Rapid Uptake scenario
2015 8 to 11 years 6 to 9 years 4 to 7 years
2020 7 to 9 years 5 to 6 years 3 to 4 years
2025 5 to 7 years 3 to 4 years 1.5 to 2 years
2032 5 to 6 years 3 years 1.5 to 2 years
For individual household installations:
SLIDE 17
NEM INSTALLED CAPACITY FORECAST
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (M
W)
Year
NEM saturation Estimated Actuals Slow Uptake Moderate Uptake Rapid Uptake
SLIDE 18
NON-AEMO CAPACITY FORECASTS
-2,000
3,000
8,000
13,000
18,000
23,000
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (M
W)
Year
NEMSat AEMO Slow Uptake AEMO Moderate Uptake AEMO Rapid Uptake ACIL Tasman
Estimated actuals Sunwiz Slow Uptake Sunwiz Moderate Uptake Sunwiz Fast Uptake SKM/MMA
GEM ROAM low ROAM medium ROAM high DRET
Suntech BREE AER BeyondZero
SLIDE 19
INTERESTING SOLAR INSTALLATION 3
SLIDE 20
NEM ENERGY – ROOFTOP PV
SLIDE 21
VIC ENERGY – ROOFTOP PV
SLIDE 22
VIC ENERGY – SCENARIO 3 PLANNING
Rooftop PV 2.58%
Rooftop PV 5.01%
SLIDE 23
VIC MD DAY GENERATION CURVE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Perc
enta
ge o
f rat
ed c
apac
ity (%
)
Hour
SLIDE 24
VIC MD FORECAST – ROOFTOP PV
3.14% of total MD
6.79% of total MD
SLIDE 25
RECAP: KEY POINTS
• Rooftop PV offsets energy and MD.• Fast-changing area. Impacted by government policy.• Already significant uptake (1.5 GW in the NEM),
and growing (say 12 GW in 2031).• Lots of headroom before hitting saturation level.• Network constraints are an issue.• Potential to align PV generation better with system MD.• Room to improve our analysis and understanding,
especially for MD.
• PV now included as a component in AEMO forecasts.
SLIDE 26
DIVIDER SLIDE
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