robonomics: principles, benefits, challenges, solutions
Post on 22-Jan-2018
303 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Robonomics: principles,
benefits, challenges and
solutions
Stanislav Ivanov
Email: stanislav.ivanov@vumk.eu
Web: http://stanislavivanov.com
stanislavivanov.com
Dr. Stanislav Ivanov
2
• Professor and Vice Rector (Research), Varna University of Management, Bulgaria (http://www.vum.bg)
• Editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Tourism Research (http://ejtr.vumk.eu)
• CEO of Zangador Ltd. (http://www.zangador.eu)
stanislavivanov.com
Robots have arrived …
3
stanislavivanov.com
4
Source: http://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/starwars/images/c/c8/Counterparts.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BB-8
stanislavivanov.com
5
Source: http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/avp/images/4/49/Terminator.jpg
stanislavivanov.com
6
Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/images/robot-thinking-one.png
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Manufacturing
7
http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/sites/default/files/field/image/Industrial-Robots-Hyundai-Heavy.jpg
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Warehousing, supply and logistics
8
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/industrial-robots/german-warehouse-robots-tackle-picking-tasks
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Agriculture
9
http://sparc-robotics.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/polni-robot-amazone-bonirob-44e031.jpg
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Transportation / Self-driving cars
10
http://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/images/home-where.jpg
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Medicine
11
http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/robotics/images/2/21/Medical_robot.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140602041221
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Warfare
12
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/military-robots/why-should-we-ban-autonomous-weapons-to-survive
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Legal services
13
http://www.kurzweilai.net/will-ai-replace-judges-and-lawyers
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies• Hotels
14
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/futuristic-hotel-thats-like-robotic-6449905
http://www.h-n-h.jp/en/concept/
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies• Restaurants
15
Photo credit: Katerina Berezina
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies• Meetings and events
16
https://www.bizbash.com/mobile-telepresence-new-systems-allow-users-participate-meetings-events-afar/gallery/123291
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies• Theme and amusement parks
17
Photo credit: Stanislav Ivanov
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies• Airports and other transport stations
18
Photo credit: Nicolaus Korab
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies• Travel agencies and Tourist information centres
19
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies• Museums and art galleries
20
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/14/arts/design/museums-experiment-with-robots-as-guides.html?_r=0
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Households
21
http://www.roboticstrends.com/images/photos/xiaomi-mi-robot-vacuum.jpg
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Search engines
22
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Social media chatbots
23
http://chatbotsmagazine.com
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Finance
24
http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/581cd80d46e27a2e008b4cf3-1920/fintech-ecosystem-diagram.png
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• E-commerce
25
stanislavivanov.com
Application of robots, AI and
automation technologies:• Sex services
26
https://www.minds.com/blog/view/638819052533329937
stanislavivanov.com
27
stanislavivanov.com
The tendency to use RAIA in the production of goods and services will accelerate in the
future until society reaches a point when all (or an overwhelming share of) goods and
services are produced by RAIA with limited human involvement. Such an economic
system, based on robots, artificial intelligence and (service) automation, is
called ‘robonomics’
28
stanislavivanov.com
Robonomics is an economic system that uses robots, artificial intelligence and
(service) automation technologies as production factors, instead of human
labour.
29
stanislavivanov.com
Why robots?
• Robots could work 24/7
• Robots could implement various tasks and expand their scope with software and hardware upgrades
• Robots could provide constant or improving quality of their work
• Robots could fulfil their work correctly and in a timely manner
• Robots could do routine work repeatedly
• Robots do not complain, get ill, go on strikes, spread rumors, discriminate, quit their job without notice, show negative emotions, shirk from work
30
stanislavivanov.com
Why not robots?
• Robots lack creativity
• Robots will not be any time soon completely independent of human supervision
• Robots lack personal approach
• Robots can orientate in structured situations (at least for the moment)
• Robots may (will) be perceived as threat by human employees (e.g. Neo-Luddism movement)
31
stanislavivanov.com
Principles of Robonomics (1)
• All or most of the products (goods and services) are produced / provided by robots / artificial intelligence
• High level of automation
• Fewer but more knowledge-intensive jobs
• Disconnection between employment and incomes -employment is not the major source of incomes
• Active use of variety of single- and multi-purpose industrial, service and social robots
32
stanislavivanov.com
Principles of Robonomics (2)
• High cost-efficiency of production – economically efficient on-demand single/few unit(s) production of some goods
• Small and dispersed factories, close to consumers
• High level of standardisation of services – strict algorithmisation of service provision
• Labour and capital abundance are not competitive advantages, but knowledge and creativity
33
stanislavivanov.com
Principles of Robonomics (3)
• Gradual spread of automation / robotisation in time, industries and countries
• Spill-over effects of automation / robotisation from developed to developing economies
34
stanislavivanov.com
Benefits of Robonomics
Improved quality of life in the long term due to:
• People will be liberated of hard manual labour
• Drastic increase of leisure time
• Time for creative and pleasure activities
• Less (no) work-related stress
• Improved health, increased life expectancy
35
stanislavivanov.com
Challenges of Robonomics
Short- and mid-term challenges due to:
• Unemployment and relative overpopulation –fewer human employees and lower salaries:
Frey & Osborne (2013) assess the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations in the USA and conclude that 47% of total jobs in the country are risk of being substituted by AI.
DeCanio (2016) measures the elasticity of substitution of human labour with robots in the USA and concludes that it would lead to significant drop in wages.
36
stanislavivanov.com
Challenges of Robonomics
• Possible functional illiteracy – humans may forget how to do things once robots do them
• Division of society between employed and unemployed
• Changes in social values – is human life valuable? Do we need other people to satisfy our needs when we have robots?
• Social unrest and political instability – due to substitution of human employees with robots
• Migration
• Wars
37
stanislavivanov.com
Proposed solutions to the challenges
of RobonomicsPrior literature has elaborated on some solutions to technological unemployment like mandating employment, government job creation, work sharing, employment impact statements, tax policies and financial incentives for job creation, etc. (e.g. Stevens & Marchant, 2017). These solutions assume that given the right stimuli the economy will create enough jobs to keep full employment. However, they may work on the road torobonomics as tools to mitigate the impacts of technological unemployment, but not during robonomics when society reaches full robotisation of economy and people do not need to work.
38
stanislavivanov.com
Proposed solutions to the challenges
of Robonomics• Constant and fluid free life-long education
• Entertainment, tourism, leisure activities, volunteering
• Universal basic income
• Robot-based taxation
• Birth control / birth right patent
• Redefinition of human rights
39
stanislavivanov.com
Proposed solutions to the challenges
of Robonomics
40
stanislavivanov.com
Proposed solutions to the challenges
of Robonomics
Situation Biological right (reproduction)
Political right (voting)
Economic right(basic income)
Outcome
1 Yes Yes Yes Country default
2 Yes Yes No Mass poverty
3 Yes No Yes Country default
4 Yes No No Mass poverty
5 No Yes Yes Demographic crisis
6 No Yes No Demographic crisis
7 No No Yes Demographic crisis
8 No No No Demographic crisis
41
• Redefinition of human rights
stanislavivanov.com
Proposed solutions to the challenges
of Robonomics
Only a combination between options [2] and [7] provides a stable solution
People self-select whether they want the cozy life without work, but subject to sterilization and without the right to vote, OR they will not receive any guaranteed income but will have the right to vote and reproduce
42
Situation Biological right (reproduction)
Political right (voting)
Economic right(basic income)
Outcome
2 Yes Yes No Mass poverty
7 No No Yes Demographic crisis
• Redefinition of human rights
stanislavivanov.com
Proposed solutions to the challenges
of Robonomics
43
stanislavivanov.com
Forthcoming in 2019 by Emerald:
Robots, Artificial Intelligence and Service Automation in
Travel, Tourism and Hospitality
44
stanislavivanov.com
Forthcoming in 2019 by Channel View Publications:
Future Tourism in Robot-based Economy
45
stanislavivanov.com
Manuscript references (1/5)
• Agah, A., Cabibihan, J. J., Howard, A., Salichs, M. A., & He, H. (Eds.). (2016). Social Robotics. Proceedings of the 8th International Conference, ICSR 2016, Kansas City, MO, USA, November 1-3, 2016. (Vol. 9979). Springer.
• Andelfinger, V. P. and Hänisch, T. (Eds.). (2017). Industrie 4.0: Wie cyber-physische Systeme die Arbeitswelt verändern. Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler.
• Barrat, J. (2013). Our final invention: Artificial intelligence and the end of the human era. New York: Macmillan.
• Bollier, D. (2017). Artificial intelligence comes of age. The promise and challenge of integrating AI into cars, healthcare and journalism. Washington, DC: The Aspen Institute.
• Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2014). The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. WW Norton & Company.
• Castles, F. G. (2003). The world turned upside down: below replacement fertility, changing preferences and family-friendly public policy in 21 OECD countries. Journal of European Social Policy, 13(3), 209-227.
• Cheok, A. D., Devlin, K., & Levy, D. (2017). Love and sex with robots. Revised selected papers of the Second International Conference, LSR 2016, London, UK, December 19-20, 2016. Springer.
• Clerwall, C. (2014). Enter the robot journalist: Users' perceptions of automated content. Journalism Practice, 8(5), 519-531.
• Colestock, H. (2005) Industrial robotics: selection, design, and maintenance. New York: McGraw-Hill.
• Crews, J. (2016). Robonomics: Prepare today for the jobless economy of tomorrow. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.
• Crootof, R. (2015). War, Responsibility, and Killer Robots. North Carolina Journal of International Law and Commercial Regulation, 40(4), 909-932.
• Cubero, S. (Eds) (2007). Industrial robotics: theory, modelling and control. Mammendorf: pro literature Verlag Robert Mayer-Scholz.
46
stanislavivanov.com
Manuscript references (2/5)
• DeCanio, S. J. (2016). Robots and humans–complements or substitutes? Journal of Macroeconomics, 49, 280-291.
• Drexler, K. E. (2013). Radical abundance: How a revolution in nanotechnology will change civilization. New York: Public Affairs.
• Driessen, C., & Heutinck, L. F. M. (2015). Cows desiring to be milked? Milking robots and the co-evolution of ethics and technology on Dutch dairy farms. Agriculture and Human Values, 32(1), 3-20.
• Dunis, C. L., Middleton, P. W., Karathanasopolous, A., & Theofilatos, K. A. (Eds.). (2017). Artificial Intelligence in Financial Markets: Cutting Edge Applications for Risk Management, Portfolio Optimization and Economics. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Frank, M., Roehring, P., & Pring, B. (2017). What to do when machines do everything: How to get ahead in a world of AI, algorithms, bots and big data. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
• Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2013). The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment Working Paper. Available at: http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf (Accessed on 10th June 2016).
• Gartner (2016). Gartner's 2016 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Identifies Three Key Trends That Organizations Must Track to Gain Competitive Advantage. Retrieved 30th May 2017 from http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3412017
• Heineke, K., Kampshoff, P., Mkrtchyan, A., & Shao, E. (2017). Self-driving car technology: When will the robots hit the road? McKinsey & Company. Retrieved on 22 May 2017 from http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/self-driving-car-technology-when-will-the-robots-hit-the-road
• Hill, J., Ford, W. R., & Farreras, I. G. (2015). Real conversations with artificial intelligence: A comparison between human–human online conversations and human–chatbot conversations. Computers in Human Behavior, 49, 245-250.
47
stanislavivanov.com
Manuscript references (3/5)
• Ivanov, S. (2016). Will robots substitute teachers? Yearbook of Varna University of Management, 9, 42-47.
• Ivanov, S., & Webster, C. (2017). The robot as a consumer: a research agenda. Paper presented at the “Marketing: experience and perspectives” Conference, 29-30 June 2017, University of Economics-Varna, Bulgaria.
• Ivanov, S., Webster, C. & Berezina, K. (2017). Adoption of robots and service automation by tourism and hospitality companies. Paper presented at the INVTUR Conference, 17-19 May 2017, Aveiro, Portugal.
• Kaur, S. (2012). How medical robots are going to affect our lives. IETE Technical Review, 29(3), 184-187.
• Kuo, C.-M., Chen, L.-C., & Tseng, C.-Y. (2017). Investigating an innovative service with hospitality robots. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 29(5), 1305-1321.
• LaGrandeur, K. and Hughes, J. J. (Eds.) (2017). Surviving the Machine Age. Intelligent Technology and the Transformation of Human Work. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Lee, J. (2017). Sex robots: The future of desire. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Leonhard, G. (2016). Technology vs. Humanity. Fast Future Publishing.
• Low, K.-H. (Ed.) (2007). Industrial robotics: programming, simulation and applications. Mammendorf: pro literature Verlag Robert Mayer-Scholz.
• Makridakis, S. (2017). The Forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution: Its Impact on Society and Firms. Futures, 90, 46-60.
• Maurer, M., Gerdes, J. C., Lenz, B., & Winner, H. (Eds.) (2016). Autonomous driving: technical, legal and social aspects. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Open.
48
stanislavivanov.com
Manuscript references (4/5)
• McClure, P. K. (2017). “You’re Fired,” Says the Robot: The Rise of Automation in the Workplace, Technophobes, and Fears of Unemployment. Social Science Computer Review (forthcoming), doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0894439317698637
• Min, H. (2010). Artificial intelligence in supply chain management: theory and applications. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 13(1), 13-39.
• Mirheydar, H. S., & Parsons, J. K. (2013). Diffusion of robotics into clinical practice in the United States: process, patient safety, learning curves, and the public health. World Journal of Urology, 31(3), 455-461.
• Murphy, J., Hofacker, C., & Gretzel, U. (2017). Dawning of the Age of Robots in Hospitality and Tourism: Challenges for Teaching and Research. European Journal of Tourism Research, 15, 104-111.
• Neapolitan, R. E., & Jiang, X. (2013). Contemporary artificial intelligence. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
• Pires, J. N. (2007). Industrial Robots Programming: Building Applications for the Factories of the Future. New York: Springer US.
• Remus, D. & Levy, F. (2015) Can robots be lawyers? Computers, lawyers, and the practice of law. SSRN Working paper: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2701092
• Santens, S. (2017). Unconditional basic income as a solution to technological unemployment. In LaGrandeur, K. and Hughes, J. J. (Eds.) (2017). Surviving the Machine Age. Intelligent Technology and the Transformation of Human Work. London: Palgrave Macmillan (pp. 107-116).
• Schommer, E., Patel, V. R., Mouraviev, V., Thomas, C., & Thiel, D. D. (2017). Diffusion of robotic technology into urologic practice has led to improved resident physician robotic skills. Journal of Surgical Education, 74(1), 55-60.
• Schwab, K. (2016). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Cologny/Geneva: World Economic Forum.
49
stanislavivanov.com
Manuscript references (5/5)
• Sheahen, A. (2012). Basic income guarantee: your right to economic security. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Sparrow, R. (2007). Killer robots. Journal of Applied Philosophy, 24(1), 62-77.
• Stevens, Y. A., & Marchant, G. E. (2017). Policy solutions to technological unemployment. In LaGrandeur, K. and Hughes, J. J. (Eds.) (2017). Surviving the Machine Age. Intelligent Technology and the Transformation of Human Work. London: Palgrave Macmillan (pp. 117-130).
• Swan, M. (2017). Is technological unemployment real? An assessment and a plea for abundance economics. In LaGrandeur, K. and Hughes, J. J. (Eds.) (2017). Surviving the Machine Age. Intelligent Technology and the Transformation of Human Work. London: Palgrave Macmillan (pp. 19-33).
• Talwar, R. (Ed.) (2015). The future of business. Fast Future Publishing.
• Timms, M.J. (2016). Letting Artificial Intelligence in Education out of the Box: Educational Cobots and Smart Classrooms. International Journal of Artificial Intelligence in Education, 26(2), 701-712.
• Tussyadiah, I. P., Zach, F. K. & Wang, J. (2017). Attitudes Toward Autonomous on Demand Mobility System: The Case of Self-Driving Taxi. In Schegg, R. & Strangl, B. (Eds.) Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2017. Proceedings of the International Conference in Rome, Italy, January 24–26, 2017, pp. 755-766.
• Warwick, K. (2012). Artificial intelligence: The basics. Oxon: Routledge.
• Xu, A., Liu, Z., Guo, Y., Sinha, V., & Akkiraju, R. (2017, May). A new chatbot for customer service on social media. In Proceedings of the 2017 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (pp. 3506-3510). ACM.
50
stanislavivanov.com
THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION!
QUESTIONS?
51
top related