"roadmapping overview" -richard albright
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Roadmapping Overview
Outline
• What is Roadmapping?
• Comments on Successful Roadmapping
• Roadmap Development Process
M
A
TI CONSORTIUM
MATI II Level Set Meeting
September 16, 1999
Rich Albright
ralbright@lucent.com
29/16/99
Roadmaps and Roadmapping
A Roadmap – is the view of a group of how to get where they want
to go or achieve their desired objective. (Discipline)– helps the group make sure the capabilities to achieve
their objective are in place at the time needed. (Focus)
Roadmapping – is a Learning process for the group.– is a Communication tool for the group.
Richard E. Albright
Technology Office
Bell Laboratories
Lucent Technologies
ralbright@lucent.com
We make the things that make communications work
39/16/99
Types of Roadmaps *
• Science and Technology Roadmaps– ONR, Bibliometric methods
• Industry & Government Roadmaps– Semiconductor (SIA), NEMI
Component Roadmaps
– Aluminum Industry, Glass Industry,
• Corporate Roadmaps– Product Roadmaps
– Manufacturing Roadmaps
– Component Roadmaps
– Product Technology Roadmaps
* Roadmaps can represent the need, current/planned capabilty or both
10
100
1000
10000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015tr
an
sis
/ch
ip (
M)
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1.00E-03
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
DR
AM c
ost/b
it
10-4
10-5
10-6
10-7
10-3
The National Technology Roadmapfor Semiconductors (1997)
Identify or Set a Future Direction
Coordinate Execution
Set DirectionCoordinate ExecutionPortfolio Management
Key Objectives:
49/16/99
Product Technology Roadmaps
• Disciplined, Focused, Multi-year, Business Planning Methodology– Driven by Market Strategy (Customers & Competition)– Drives
• Product Families• Manufacturing & Supply Line Requirements• Linkage
– Research– Standards– Intellectual Property
• Concise, Cross-Functional Vehicle– Learning– Communications
59/16/99
Product Technology Roadmap
AT&T PROPRIETARY -- Use pursuant to company instructions
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 VISION
ProductAttributes
CustomerValue
Differencefrom
Competition
PRODUCT EVOLUTION PLAN
A T & T PR O PR IET A R Y -- U se p u rsu ant to com pan y instru ctions
A dvantage C om petancy G oals V alue P rop.Lucent
M otorola
COMPETITIVE STRATEGY
EXPERIENCE CURVES
$100
$1,000
$10,000
0.1 1 10 100
Cum ulative Units Sold (Millions)
Mar
ket P
rice
(per
uni
t)
MANUFACTURING ROADMAP
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 VISIONCore technology Area
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPCustomer drivers
Ease of useDisplay
User interface
Keypad
Software
Talk timePower management
Baseband processing
Microcontroller
Mixed signal
Memory devices
Batteries
Low costRadio
Antenna
Power amp
Housing
Shielding
PWB technology
System designStandards
Accessories
Audio quality
Voice recognition
Voice coders
DSP algorithms
Transducers/microph.
Import. Compet.Position
PRODUCT ROADMAP
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
PRICE
COST
ALGORITHM ROADMAP
CustomerandBusinessDrivers
Requirements
Availability
Research, E&ETMicroelectronicsManufacturing
Needs,Supply
Business-driven technology plan
MARKET ANALYSIS
Market
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1996 97 98 99 2000
Revenue
0
1
2
3
4
1996 97 98 99 20000%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 97 98 99 2000
Market Share
TECHNOLOGY ATTACK STRATEGY
AT&T PROPRIETARY -- Use pursuant to company instructions
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001LucentAttackTechnologies
IntellectualPropertyStrategy
COMPONENT ROADMAP
Technology Category 95 96 97 98 99 Target Source
INTEGRATED CIRCUITS $89.21 $79.21 $60.00 $45.00 $39.00 $28 CWV 1/1/96
RF COMPONENTS $20.00 $19.53 $18.00 $17.00 $15.00 $10 RF team targets
DISCRETES $10.50 $9.38 $8.45 $4.37 $2.05 $2
HOUSING $15.40 $14.11 $12.30 $8.50 $8.30 $8
DISPLAY MODULE $5.00 $4.50 $4.30 $4.10 $3.10 $5
BATTERY $9.43 $8.33 $7.95 $6.58 $6.34 $4
PWB $4.67 $4.35 $4.23 $4.21 $4.15 $5
MATERIAL COST $154 $139 $115 $90 $78 $62
MANUFACTURING COSTS
$25 $15 $7 $5 $4 $5
TOTAL COST $179 $154 $122 $95 $82 $67
COST TARGET $170 $150 $104 $75 $67 $67 From product plan with 70% learning curve
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
95 96 97 98 99 Target
CO
GS
ICs
RF
DISCRETES
HOUSING
DISPLAY
BATTERY
PWB
MANUF.
TARGET
Research,Manufacturin
g,Supply Line
SOFTWARE
Competitor 1
69/16/99
Why Roadmap? / Roadmapping Objectives
• Roadmapping is just good planning, with a heavy dose of technology (not just an afterthought).
• Roadmaps link business strategy and market data with product and technology decisions using a series of simple charts.
• Roadmaps highlight gaps in product and technology plans.
• Roadmaps prioritize investments based on drivers.• Roadmapping results in better targets: more
competitive and more realistic.
79/16/99
Creating theRoadmapRoadmap Content
R&D
BusinessUnits
Others ...
Using The Roadmaps
Successful Roadmapping
Three distinct parts ...
… all must be addressed for roadmapping to work.
AT&T PROPRIETARY -- Use pursuant to company instructions
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 VISION
ProductAttributes
CustomerValue
Difference
PRODUCT EVOLUTION PLAN
AT&T PROPRIETARY -- Use pursuant to company instructions
A dvantage C om petancy Goals V alue P rop.Lucent
M otoro la
COMPETITIVE STRATEGY
PRODUCT DRIVERS
0.1 1 10 100
Cumulative Units Sold (Millions)
Mark
et P
rice
(per
uni
t)
MANUFACTURING ROADMAP
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 VISIONCore technology Area
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPCustomer drivers
Ease of useDisplay
User interface
Keypad
Software
Talk timePower management
Baseband processing
Microcontroller
Mixed signal
Memory devices
Batteries
Low costRadio
Antenna
Power amp
Housing
Shielding
PWB technology
System designStandards
AccessoriesAudio quality
Voice recognition
Voice coders
DSP algorithms
Transducers/microph.
Import. Compet.Position
PRODUCT ROADMAP
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
PRICE
COST
ALGORITHM ROADMAP
CustomerandBusinessDrivers
Requirements
Availability
Research, E&ETMicroelectronicsManufacturing
Needs,Supply
Business-driven technology plan
MARKET ANALYSIS
Market
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1996 97 98 99 2000
Revenue
0
1
2
3
4
1996 97 98 99 20000%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 97 98 99 2000
Market Share
TECHNOLOGY ATTACK STRATEGY
AT&T PROPRIETARY -- Use pursuant to company instructions
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001LucentAttackTechnologies
IntellectualPropertyStrategy
COMPONENT ROADMAP
Technology Category 95 96 97 98 99 Target Source
INTEGRATED CIRCUITS $89.21 $79.21 $60.00 $45.00 $39.00 $28 CWV 1/1/96
RF COMPONENTS $20.00 $19.53 $18.00 $17.00 $15.00 $10 RF team targets
DISCRETES $10.50 $9.38 $8.45 $4.37 $2.05 $2
HOUSING $15.40 $14.11 $12.30 $8.50 $8.30 $8
DISPLAY MODULE $5.00 $4.50 $4.30 $4.10 $3.10 $5
BATTERY $9.43 $8.33 $7.95 $6.58 $6.34 $4
PWB $4.67 $4.35 $4.23 $4.21 $4.15 $5
MATERIAL COST $154 $139 $115 $90 $78 $62
MANUFACTURING COSTS
$25 $15 $7 $5 $4 $5
TOTAL COST $179 $154 $122 $95 $82 $67
COST TARGET $170 $150 $104 $75 $67 $67 From product plan with 70% learning curve
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
95 96 97 98 99 Target
CO
GS
ICs
RF
DISCRETES
HOUSING
DISPLAY
BATTERY
PWB
MANUF.
TARGET
Stupid conference
table clipart l
ocks
up printer
89/16/99
Summary of MATI I Findings on Roadmapping
• Product-Technology Roadmapping is best introduced when:
1. Product is important (growth, profit, strategic)
2. Sustained trends exist in technologies and drivers
3. Product is threatened (and they realize it!)
• Don’t automate too much:
The challenge of roadmapping is organizational, not technical. Allow the politics, negotiation, and interaction to occur in person.
• Be compelling: Highlight the relevant and important items for the target audience, otherwise roadmaps will be ignored.
• Show risk on roadmaps or be careful how much detail is shared … but still set aggressive targets. Readers assume that roadmap content is “certain.”
• Avoid metrics that reward “going through the motions.”
• Customize output to allow sharing and circulation.
99/16/99
• Top Down Commitment• Business Leader Support
• Use Product Technology Roadmaps to manage the business.
• Bottom Up Commitment• Core team must see the value in supporting the process
• They must have confidence that the roadmaps will be used long term
• Don’t get hung up at the roadblocks
Requires both:
Conditions for Success
109/16/99
• Intensive - Short term attack strategy
• Prompted by new business start, major strategic change or new competitive threat
• Multidiscipline team meet several times to “complete” roadmap (and make strategic decisions)
• Part of BU Fabric - Culture driven
• Develop and maintain roadmaps as part of periodic team meetings (e.g. review a template per meeting)
• Review roadmaps periodically at BU-VP level
• Use roadmaps to monitor and run ongoing business
Styles of Roadmapping
119/16/99
Roadmap Development Process
Business
Strategy
Value
Proposition
Product Strategy
• Evolution plan
• Customer value
• Diff. from Comp.
Technology
Strategy
• Attack technologies
• IP strategy
Step 1
Step 2 Step 3
Step 4Note: shaded items end up in roadmap templates
The Goal:
Develop a consistent, linked business, product and technology strategy.
129/16/99
Roadmap Development Process
• Step 1: Identify Business Strategy & Value Proposition
• Step 2: Develop differentiating Product Strategy
• Step 3: Develop linked Technology Strategy
• Step 4: Verify strategy meets financial objectives
139/16/99
1. Market and Competitive Strategy
• Clarify and document strategy and goals
• Incorporate customer feedback
• Provide competitive information
– Competitive advantages
– Competencies
– Strategic goals
– Value proposition
• Identify markets and targeted segments
• Market shares and growth
4
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Price Time-to-mkt Features Quality Reliability
CUSTOMER DRIVERS
Luce
nt r
el.
pos
ition
Motorola
Nortel
Ericsson
Lucent Leads
Lucent Lags
COMPETITIVE STRATEGY ANDDIFFERENTIATION
Source: CVA survey May 1997
GOOD
Competitor(Market share)
Strengths (+)/weaknesses
Core Competancy Strategic Goals Customer-perceivedValue Proposition
Lucent( %)
Motorola( %)
NorthernTelecom( %)Ericsson
Siemens
5
MARKET SHARE AND GROWTH
Source: Product Line Plan October 1997 (Smith)
Addressable Market
0
100
200
300
400
500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Ma
rke
t S
ize
($
M)
Product B
Product A
Product C
Lucent Share of Market
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Lu
ce
nt
Re
ven
ue
($M
)
Product C
Product B
Product A
Lucent Market Share
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Ma
rke
t fr
acti
on
ca
ptu
red
Product A
Product B
Product C
149/16/99
Step 1: Business Strategy & Value Proposition
Identify possiblemarket drivers
Refine into customer drivers:* Based on customer perception (customer survey) * Identifies critical few drivers which make up buying decision* Identifies weightings in buying decision * Rates Lucent relative to competitors (e.g. CVA data)
What do we have?Strengths/Weaknesses
Mkt sh., Core Competencies
What is the Addressable Market?
BUSINESSSTRATEGY
VALUEPROPOSITION
Templates:• Competitive strategy & differentiation• Market Growth & Share
Identify Scope ofRoadmap
(what products or marketsover what timeframe)
Who are the customers?
Who are the competitors?What is their mkt share,
strengths/weaknessesCC, Value prop. & strategy?
159/16/99
2. Product Strategy
p. 9Roadmapping course V0.1 1/27/97 LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES PROPRIETARY
EXPERIENCE CURVES
ANALOG WIRELESS TERMINAL
$100
$1,000
$10,000
0.1 1 10 100Cumulative Units Sold (Millions)
Mar
ket
pri
ce
80% slope1984
19861988
1990
1992
1994 1996
1998
p. 11Roadmapping course V0.1 1/27/97 LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES PROPRIETARY
PRODUCT DRIVERS
Source: Jane Doe 7/31/96
Bandwidth
0.1
1
10
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Vision
GH
z
Size
10
100
1000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Vision
cubi
c ce
ntim
eter
s
Nortel
Battery Life
10
100
1000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Vision
Hou
rs
Return Rate
0.1
1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Vision
% p
er m
onth
Voice quality
0
1
2
3
4
5
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Vision
MO
S S
cale
Nortel
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 VISION
ProductAttributes
CustomerValue
Differencefrom
Competition
Lower Cost, Higher speed and reliability
Product Evolution Plan
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Pri
ce,
cost
(p
er p
ort
)
Cost
PriceR1.0
R1.1
R2.0 V2
Product Roadmap
• History and projection in key product attributes
• Experience curves set targets
• Most critical product attributes
• Link product and technology plans to customer and competitive drivers
• Prioritize investments
• Clarify product release plan
• Trends in price, cost and features
• Evolution of product features
169/16/99
Step 2: Product Strategy
Identify possibleProduct Drivers
Minimize set(impact on
Customer Drivers)Ours & Competitorhistory & current
position
Prioritize(Cust. importance,
our capability,business strategy)
Est. Comp. trendSet targets
DriverWeightings
BusinessStrategy
Product Strategy
• Evolution plan
• Customer value
• Diff. from Comp.
KEY PRODUCT
DRIVERS
(differentiators)
Templates:• Experience curves• Product attributes and drivers• Product roadmap• Product Evolution Plan
179/16/99
Semiconductor Memory (DRAM)
1.E-07
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014
Cum volume (DRAM bits)
Av
era
ge
se
llin
g p
rice
(ce
nts
/bit
)
.
1997 National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors
1964 1984 1994 2004 20141974
10-5
10-6
10-7
Experience Curve Time Trend
64
74
84
94
• The technology driver for all electronic industries• Repeated, significant changes in product and technology: 4 bit --> 4 Megabit/chip --> ...• “Moore’s Law” used to coordinate the many players in industry
70% Slope
Ave
rag
e S
elli
ng
Pric
e (
cen
ts/b
it)
Cum volume (DRAM bits)
189/16/99
3. Technology Strategy
• Planned technology changes, and when they will be introduced into products
• Prioritize technology investments
• Research and development plans
• Planned technology trends, grouped by drivers
• Importance, competitive position, source and funding status
Roadmap Template V3.2 9/4/97 10
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 VISIONCore technology Area
Customer drivers
Ease of useDisplay 2 line, 12 character
User interface
Keypad
Software
Talk timePower management
Baseband processing
Microcontroller
Mixed signal
Memory devices
Batteries
Low costRadio
Antenna
Power amp
Housing
Shielding
PWB technology
System designStandards
Accessories
Audio qualityVoice recognition
Voice coders
4 line Graphical display - 1/4 VGA
Keypad Softkeys Voice recognition
10-key rubber
8523 8524 processor
Import.Compet.Position
Single piece None
Single chip processor
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
L M H - 0 + C = Current F = Future
CF FC
Technology Source: Devel. Lucent-MESupplier Research
199/16/99
Step 3: Technology Strategy
List keyProduct Drivers
Identify core tech.(impact on
Product Drivers)What technologies
are you investing in?(align to drivers)
Identify possibletech. investments& when available
in product
Determine tech.importance &
competitive position
ProductStrategy
Tech. Strategy
• Attack tech.
• IP Strategy
Technology
Roadmap
Identify technologysource/commitment
Templates:• Technology Roadmap• Forward costing model• Manufacturing drivers• Manufacturing Roadmap• Technology Attack Strategy
209/16/99
Step 4: Verify Roadmap Meets Financial Objectives
Business
Strategy Product Strategy.Technology
Strategy
Business Case
Expected Shareof Market
Dev. $, time, riskProd. perf. & cost
BUSINESSSTRATEGY
CoreCompetencies
(SCA)
CompetitorS/W & C.C.
CompetitorStrategy
Strengths /Weak.
CompetitorValue Prop.
VALUEPROPOSITION
Customer Drivers(buying decision)
RateRelative tocompetition
IdentifyWeightings
IdentifyCustomer
Drivers
AddressableMarket
PRODUCT STRATEGY * Evolution plan * Cust. Value * Diff. from Comp.
Prioritize based oncustomer importance,
capability &business strategy
Obtain ours &Competitior History &
current position
Est. Comp. trendSet LU targets
KEY PRODUCTDRIVERS
(differentiators)
Minimize set based onimpact to cust driver
Identify PossibleProduct Drivers
Expected Shareof Market
TECHNOLOGYSTRATEGY
* Attack Technologies * IP Strategy
Determine technologyimportance &
competitive position
Identify possibletechnology investments& when avail. in product
Identify technologysource / committment
TechnologyRoadmap
What are technologiesare you investing in
now? Align to drivers.
Identify Core technologyareas which affect
product drivers
List key product drivers
Dev. $, time, & riskProduct perf. and cost
BUSINESS CASE ANALYSIS(with multiple scenarios)
Step 4: Verify strategy meets financial needs
229/16/99
Roadmaps and Roadmapping
Discipline & Focus
Learning &
Communications
Summary
“Where’s the Roadmap? Can I see it? Am I on it? “
“If it’s not on the Roadmap it doesn’t get funded! “
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