risk management for highway design jeffrey shaw, p.e. safety & design tst

Risk Management for Highway Design

Jeffrey Shaw, P.E.Safety & Design TST

“RISK”

A factor, element, or course involving uncertainty regarding harm, loss, danger or damage

Risk Management Test for Design

1. Does your agency have adequate and dynamic processes in place to identify existing and new risks faced?

2. Does your agency have the right balance of arrangements in place to deal with these risks?

3. Does your agency have an adequate framework for risk analysis and evaluation to support decision-making processes?

Source: "Guide to Risk Assessment and Allocation for Highway Construction Management", FHWA-PL-06-032

Risk Management Characteristics

• Explicitly addresses uncertainty

• Based on the best available information

• Part of the decision-making process

• Systematic, structured, and an integral part of organizational processes

• Dynamic, iterative, responsive to change, and capable of continual improvement and enhancement

• Accounts for human factors

• Transparent and inclusive

Risk-oriented Highway Design

• Not a new concept

• May involve different approaches and viewpoints Who or what is “at risk” and what is the core motivation

– Safety of Facility Users (i.e. motorists, pedestrians, etc.)?

– Road Agency (tort liability concerns)?

• Underlying theme is addressing the risk Implication is that relying solely on standards does not

guarantee a facility free of risk Identifying/defining the risk is essential for managing

the risk

Fundamental Aspects

• Understanding Design Risk involves:

Knowing the basis and assumptions underlying the standards

Defining the conditions of the project

– Physical

– Traffic

– Safety

Identify & Characterize the Degree of Risk

• What are the variables that influence Risk?

• Exposure Traffic Volume Location Duration

• Deviation from Nominal Degree of variance

• Severity of Outcome Possible worst-case scenario

Assessing Design Risks• Assessing the probability and severity of adverse

consequences associated with activities, recommendations or designs.

• Does not need to be a complicated quantitative assessment, but rather a practical assessment based on experience, engineering judgment and historical standard of practice.

• To the extent possible, risks should be quantified, both on the basis of their potential probability and for their potential consequences.

Risk-based Safety Analysis Tools

• Safety Effects Studies horizontal alignment vertical alignment cross-section intersections

• IHSDM (ihsdm.org) Includes crash prediction, design

consistency and capacity calc

• Highway Safety Manual

• Latest Research and Best Practices

• Design-stage Road Safety Audits

Risk-based Safety Analysis Tools

Safety Performance Evolution

NOMINAL SAFETYexamined in reference to

compliance with standards, warrants, guidelines and

sanctioned design procedures

SUBSTANTIVE SAFETYactual or expected crash frequency

and severity for a highway or roadway segment or intersection

RSAs Add Value to a Project

• Compromises and constraints are a normal part of transportation budgeting

• RSAs demonstrate the safety implications of roadway elements

• RSAs ensure that safety is an explicit consideration, and that safety does not “fall through the cracks”

• RSA focus corresponds to stage of project

Early Stage RSAs

• PRECONSTRUCTION planning / feasibility

preliminary (draft) design

detailed design

• CONSTRUCTION work zones

pre-opening

• EXISTING in-operation reviews

HIGH VALUE!

Integrating RSA + VE

• Consider the sequence scenarios of conducting both an RSA and a VE study on the same project

• Possible Outcomes:1. RSA conducted before VE

2. VE conducted before RSA

3. RSA and VE conducted in concert, with separate teams of individuals

• http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/rsa/resources.htm

Considering Risk of Design Exceptions

• Evaluating design exceptions in determining whether:

An appropriate criterion for a CORRIDOR is less than the minimum normally applicable (design speed, roadway width)

An appropriate design value to use at a LOCATION is less than the minimum standard (curve radius, gradient)

Common Denominator of Highway Design

• Effectively dealing with the “TRADE-OFFS”

Adding lanes vs. minimizing property takes

Clear zones vs. preserving mature trees

Property access vs. high mobility

Designing for vehicle traffic vs. accommodating other user groups

Design Controls with High-Reward Potential

• Functional Classification

• Design Speed

• Design Traffic

• Design Vehicle

• Design User

Design Risk Management Process

MEASURE

MANAGE

IDENTIFY

MITIGATE

Link Between Risk Mgt and Flexible Design

• Helps deliver both a PROJECT and a PROGRAM

• Underlies a National Priority (FHWA and AASHTO)

• Allows consideration of a wider range of alternatives and design options

• Facilitates cost-effectiveness, with emphasis on increasing safety & efficiency

Recognition of Risk-Reward Basis

“It is not feasible or intended for highway projects to be entirely risk-free, as there are potential rewards to the project when risk is taken.“

Using Risk Mgt to Improve Design

• “In many cases, the risks associated with decisions can be mitigated with inclusion or enhancement of other features, which may offset the risk.”

• “The evaluation of risk is an interdisciplinary process requiring involvement of project team members and stakeholders based on the specific issues and an evaluation of risk tolerability.”

A Peer Model

• Requires a Plan/Process

• Identify Related Risks

• Analyze in terms of Severity and Likelihood

• Decide and Document

• Permits either Quantitative or Qualitative Assessments

Related Training & Technical Assistance

FY2010 NHI #380095

Highway Design: Applying Flexibility & Risk

Management

FHWA Resource Center Safety & Design Teamwww.fhwa.gov/resourcecenter/

NEW