risk factor
Post on 14-Jul-2015
69 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Common practice : Schedule Risk Analysis process
• All identified risks that have impact on schedule are basically assignedinto activities on schedule.
• Some risks may assigned to multiple activities, hence an activity can beinfluenced by multiple risks. However, many users are not aware thatprior assigning process, risks need to be categorized either Risk Event orRisk Factor.
• Ignoring Risk Factor is “risk” to schedule risk analysis process, that willlead to distorted results.
• This paper intended to briefly shown how much the variance couldderived from the simulation output “with” and “without” Risk FactorAND also hoping for feedback on how to improve the process.
• Primavera Risk Analysis is a tool used for this presentation and it isassumed that the reader(s) has understanding and experiences of usingit.
Risk Factor VS Risk Event
• Risk Event
Is an incident/occasion that may or may not happen, that affects through impacts on particular activities in the project.
• Risk Factor
Is an unknown element that affects the project. It is expressed as % and resulting from it, reduces or increases the activities it affects.
Examples
Risk Events Risk Factors
Unavailability of Resources Weather
Nobody is willing to do casting, hence
casting works shall delayed.All Offshore installation activities will prolonged 50% longer than planned duration.
Land Subside Productivity Labor
Zone A1/D1 has weak ground, piling work may get effected in case soil strengthening not properly done.
Fabrication time will takes 20% longer than initial planned.
Transportation Strike Vendor Performance
Delivery time of materials may extended by 2 weeks, due to strike attack planned by workers union
LD Exposure will goes up by 50% if work progressing continue on a flat line.
“Without” Risk FactorAll risks are taken as risk events.
Simulation on Project A (dummy).Construction of 25 Storey Ceylon Service Apartment
49%
49%
49%
50%
50%
50%
53%
54%
54%
55%ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6680:012 - Landslide and Subside
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6690:012 - Landslide and Subside
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6680 - Water Reticulation
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6690 - Road Work & Lighting
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7530 - Formworkon Columns
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6930 - Formworkon Columns
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A2370 - Formwork Pile Cap & Install Reinforcing
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7230 - Formworkon Columns
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A2330 - Formwork on Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A2090 - Formwork Pile Cap & Install Reinforcing
Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)Duration Sensitivity: Entire Plan - All tasks
Water Reticulation and Road Work& Lighting tasks have highest durationsensitivity. Noted these two activities(Infrastructure) are planned at the lastquarter of project duration.
2%
-2%
3%
5%
-7%
9%
16%
16%
23%
25%006 - Availability of Resources
012 - Landslide and Subside
005 - Late drawing & Instructions
009 - Suitability of Materials
001 - Changes in Work
002 - Subsurfaces Geological
013 - Soil availability of Land Fill
001 - Changes in Work
001 - Changes in Work
014 - Insolvency of Subcontractor
Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)Duration Sensitivity
Risk affects multiple activities. In This presentation, Risk Availability of resources and Landslide & Subside gives effect most.
“With” Risk FactorImpact plan model is a combination of risk events
and risk factors.
Simulation on Project A (dummy).
Construction of 25 Storey Ceylon Service Apartment
Determine Risk Factor
Take out Risk Events (Risk Factor )from Quantitative tab. Edit Risk Factor dialogue box.
Set 3 point estimates in % ranges and % likelihood.
In this example, weset zero likelihood of correlation
Assigning Risk Factor to task. In this example, we apply risk to entire section of the WBS (Summaries). Indirectly it reflects correlation due to common cause.
04/04/2015 17:00 27/06/2015 01:00 18/09/2015 09:00
Distribution (start of interval)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Hits
0% 18/02/2015 16:00
5% 17/03/2015 17:00
10% 02/04/2015 09:00
15% 13/04/2015 09:00
20% 20/04/2015 09:00
25% 27/04/2015 09:00
30% 01/05/2015 11:00
35% 08/05/2015 09:00
40% 13/05/2015 17:00
45% 18/05/2015 17:00
50% 25/05/2015 09:00
55% 01/06/2015 09:00
60% 05/06/2015 14:00
65% 11/06/2015 14:00
70% 18/06/2015 14:00
75% 24/06/2015 15:00
80% 01/07/2015 16:00
85% 13/07/2015 09:00
90% 29/07/2015 14:00
95% 24/08/2015 09:00
100% 30/11/2015 10:00
Cu
mu
lative F
req
uen
cy
Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)Entire Plan : Finish Date
P80 now stands at 1 July 2015
72%
72%
72%
72%
72%
72%
73%
73%
73%
74%ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7080 - Reinforcement for Beam/Slab
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7040 - Reinforcement works on Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7190 - Formwork for Beam/Slab
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7100 - Reinforcement works on Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7010 - Formwork for Beam/Slab
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7110 - Formwork on Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7000 - Concrete for Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7020 - Reinforcement for Beam/Slab
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7050 - Formwork for Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7030 - Concrete for Beam/Slab
Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)Duration Sensitivity: Entire Plan - All tasks
2%
-2%
3%
5%
-7%
9%
16%
16%
23%
25%006 - Availability of Resources
012 - Landslide and Subside
005 - Late drawing & Instructions
009 - Suitability of Materials
001 - Changes in Work
002 - Subsurfaces Geological
013 - Soil availability of Land Fill
001 - Changes in Work
001 - Changes in Work
014 - Insolvency of Subcontractor
4-Storey Elaeis Condominium for Sime Darby Development (Pre-mitigated)Duration Sensitivity
Not much changes as observedon the criticality rank
More activities are sensitive to the risk Impact. Noted at this time,that they are those activities (Structure)that planned at earlier stage of construction
Risk: Availability of Resources confirmed “driving” project schedule. Pull out from Risk Factor menu – Show Tornado
Conclusions.
• P80 for both models have different suggestion dates
“With” Risk Factor = 17 April 2015
“Without” Risk Factor = 1 July 2015
Variance = 75 days
• The output of Risk Factor model had indicated that, Major ConstructionWorks are critical to manage properly with Risk: Availability Resourcesand Risk: Productivity Labor tagged along with, rather than havingInfrastructure works as crucial.
• Incorporating Risk Factor would enabling The User to bring true realityof the project environment into the model AND give some excellentreflection of risk exposure.
top related