risk assessment for the wadden sea pilot study ribe dike progress report of sub-project sp7

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Risk Assessment for the Wadden Sea

Pilot study Ribe Dike

Progress report of sub-project SP7

Workshop 12 - 13 May 2004,Norden, Germany

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Contents

• Location of pilot study area (by T. Piontkowitz)

• Approach (by T. Piontkowitz)

• Failure probability of the Ribe sea defence (by A. Kortenhaus)

• Vulnerability analysis (by T. Piontkowitz)

• Questions & discussion

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Location of pilot study area

Ribe Dike

• length ca. 18,4 km

• protected area 6.826 ha

• year of construction1911-1914

• 1. reinforcement 1924-1925

• 2. reinforcement (flattening of outer slope) 1978-1980

• 2 sluices (Ribe Å and Konge Å) and 2 smaller outlets

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Cross-sections and topography

River, stream

Wetland

Lake

Ribe Dike

Profile + stationing no.

Sluice

Salt marsh edge

under 0

0,0 - 0,5 m

0,5 - 1,0 m

1,0 - 1,5 m

1,5 - 2,0 m

2,0 - 2,5 m

2,5 - 3,0 m

3,0 - 3,5 m

3,5 - 4,0 m

4,0 - 4,5 m

4,5 - 5,0 m

over 5 m (DVR90)

• selected from a number of existing cross-sections (former surveys)

• 4 cross-sections north of the sharp bend (perpendicular wave direction 250°), 2 cross-sections south of the sharp bend (perpendicular wave direction 290°)

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Approach

Risk assessment divided into three parts

Part 2

Vulnerability analysis

• based on ProDeich model(cooperation with LWI)

• 6 cross-sections

• include valuation analysis and damage analysis

• data collection by DCA

• damage models in cooperation with consultants

• results: (i) spatial use and material assets over elevation (ii) definition of damage models

Part 3

Dike breach scenarios and

inundation simulation

• definition of dike breach scenarios

• inundation simulation

Part 1

Failure probability of Ribe dike

Risk of Ribe sea defence and its hinterland

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Valued

Direct Tangible Damage

Buildings

Electronic installation• Pumps

• High voltage line

Economic sector• Crop

• Stock

• Movable property

Household• Movable property

Infrastructure• Roads

• Railway

Not Valued

Direct Intangible Damage

Number of population

• Night and day population

Vehicles(are normally removed during evacuation)

Tourism(tourist on the spot, number of beds)

Vulnerability analysis - risk elements

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BBR-registry: Local registry

Containing 128 columns

Land registry

Registry of town and country planning

Registry of valuation for rating

Meadow of different crops

Registry of real estate

Registry of livestock population

OIS-registry:Public information registry

ESR-registry:

SVUR-registry:

PLAN-registry:

MATR-registry:

CHR-registry:

Crop:

Vulnerability analysis – data sources

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Topography

Salt marsh edge

under 0 m DVR90

0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90

0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90

1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90

1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90

2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90

2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90

3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90

3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90

4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90

4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90

over 5 m DVR90

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Fresh water discharge

Stream

Wetland

Lake

Ribe Dike

Profile

Lock

Salt marsh edge

under 0 m DVR90

0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90

0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90

1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90

1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90

2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90

2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90

3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90

3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90

4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90

4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90

over 5 m DVR90

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Building

Town centre

Greenhouse

High settlement

Industry

Cemetery

Low settlement

Ribe Dike

Salt marsh edge

under 0 m DVR90

0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90

0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90

1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90

1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90

2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90

2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90

3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90

3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90

4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90

4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90

over 5 m DVR90

Settlement

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Infrastructure

Ribe Dike

Tele pylon

Pumps

Windmill

High-voltage line

Second road

Road over 6 m

Road 3-6 m

Path

Expressway

Railway track

Technical area

Area

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Land use

Salt marsh edge

Town centre

Cemetery

Industry

Greenhouse

High settlement

Low settlement

Building

Ribe Dike

Windmill

Tele pylon

Pumps

Roads

Technical area

Stream

Lake

Water area

Recreation

Sports park

Moor

Trees

Wood/Park

Farm Land

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Crop distribution

Salt marsh edge

Another winter grain

Spring grain

Arable pasture grass

Permanent grassland

Set a-side

Forest

Winter wheat

Non-farm area

No information

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Valuation analysis - crops

Crops Prices per ha

Crop Area Price per ha. Sum value [ha] [Dkr.] [Dkr.]

Winter wheat 1.074 6.300 6.765.375Another winter grain 315 4.400 1.385.010Spring grain 2.421 4.950 11.985.642Arable pasture grass 2.059 4.550 9.366.410Permanent grassland 516 3.150 1.626.632Set a-side 558 0 0Forest 4 0 0No information 1.806 0 0Non-farm area 1.150 0 0Sum 9.974 31.129.068

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Valuation analysis - crops

4,5-5,0

3,5-4,0

3,0-3,5

2,5-3,0

2,0-2,5

1,5-2,0

1,0-1,5

0,5-1,0

0,0-0,5

Below 0

m DVR90

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Values (million Dkr.)

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m DVR90

0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0

Property values (1000 million Dkr.)

4,5-5,0

4,0-4,5

3,5-4,0

3,0-3,5

2,5-3,0

2,0-2,5

1,5-2,0

1,0-1,5

0,5-1,0

0,0-0,5

Valuation analysis - buildings

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Damage models

2 examples:

1. Buildings

2. Economic sector - movable property

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Buildings (Water level)

Water level out side the building (m)

y = 14301 x + 77073

model water level*0,1+model property value*0,9

Building

Lineær (Building)

0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 4,5

1.000

800

600

400

200

0

Compensation for damage (1000 kr.)

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Economic sector – movable property

Movabel property

Model

1.200

1.000

800

600

400

200

0

Compensation for damage (1000

kr.)

0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0

Water level out side the building (m)