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Risk and Vulnerability Assessment in the Climate Change Adaptation Process
Jeff Zukiwsky
Zumundo Consultants
Fernie, Canada
March 25, 2010
2
Agenda
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Topic Time
4 Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
40 min
Summary of Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 10 min
Community updates 10 min
Brainstorming discussion: How to proceed with risk and vulnerability assessment
30 min
3
Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Risk/ VulnerabilityAssessment
• Develop strategies to address key risks/ vulnerabilities
• Implement
• Monitor
• Develop a team
• Create a plan
• Engage and inform stakeholders
• Understand potential future climate scenarios
• Identify planning areas/ sectors affected by climate change
4
Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
1. Risk-based Approach
2. Vulnerability Assessment
3. Hybrid – Combined RA/VA Approach
4. Kimberley ‘working group’ approach
5
The Risk-Based Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Grounded in ISO/CSA Risk Management standards
Guidebooks for Alberta, Ontario, Caribbean, Arctic, and BC Municipalities
Adopted and modified by Australia Federal Gov. (workshop approach)
Tested in several CCA Plans: Chicago, IL Toronto, ON Halifax Regional Municipality, NS Micronesia and The Cook Islands
6
The Risk-Based Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
3 Step Risk Assessment Process1. Risk Identification
(Preliminary Analysis)2. Risk Estimation3. Risk Evaluation
From: ISO/CSA Risk Management standards
7
The Risk-Based Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Step 1: Risk Identification: Identify ‘planning areas” within the
communit
Develop ‘risk scenarios’ for each planning area (impact mapping or linear flows)
Consider:• Include a verb in every scenario• Aim for a cause effect statement
8
The Risk-Based Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Step 2: Risk Estimation Estimate probability and consequence for each
‘risk’ identified in step 1
Public safety Environment Community
and lifestyleLocal
economy and growth
Public Administration
Critical Large numbers of serious injuries or loss of lives
Widespread loss of environmental amenity/ irreversible.
Major
Moderate
Minor
Insignificant
Sample Consequence Scale
9
The Risk-Based Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Step 2: Risk Estimation Sample Consequence Scale
Social Factors Economic Factors Environmental Factors
Health and
safety
Displacement
Loss of Livelihood
Property damage
Financial impact
Community impact
Air Water Land
Very low
Low
Moderate
Major
Very Severe
10
The Risk-Based Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Step 2: Risk Estimation Sample Likelihood / Probability Scale
Single Events Recurring Events
Remote Very unlikely, improbable , probability small, less than 10%
Not very likely to occur during the next 30 years
Unlikely Less likely than not, but still appreciable – probability 10-40%
May arise once in 10-30 years
Possible About as likely as not – probability 40 to 60% May arise once in 10 years
Likely Likely, probable – probability 60 to 90%
May arise about once per year
Almost certain Highly probable, virtually certain – probability greater than 90%
Could occur several times per year
11
The Risk-Based Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Step 3: Risk Evaluation Assemble risk ratings (probability x
consequence) on a risk matrix or risk table
Evaluate costs and benefits of each risk
Manually adjust any risks found to have been over or under-rated
12
The Risk-Based Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Consequence
High
Low
Unlikely Likely
Probability
Negligible- No action required
Low- Some actions (public education) may be desirable
Moderate- Some controls required to reduce risk to lower levels
High - High priority control measures required
Extreme - Immediate controls required
Step 3: Risk Evaluation Sample Risk Evaluation Matrix
13
The Risk-Based Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Step 3: Risk Evaluation Sample Risk
Evaluation Table
Risk Level Risk
Critical
High
Moderate
Minor
Insignificant
14
The Risk-Based “Workshop Approach”
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
From: Government of Australia (2008)
1.Identify threats and opportunities
2.Assess threats and opportunities
3.Evaluate threats and opportunities
1. Define scope2. Identify
stakeholders3. Develop climate
scenarios4. Agree on
evaluation frameworks
5. Define ‘key elements’
Before Workshop
Risk Assessment Workshop
After Workshop
1. Treated immediately without further analysis
2. Set aside without further action for the time being
3. Requires more detailed analysis
15
The Vulnerability Assessment Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Initiated by the IPCC
Recommended by: NRCAN C-CIARN
Used primarily in: Academic journals Developing countries
16
Vulnerability Assessment
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
IPCC 4AR: 7 criteria to identify ‘Key Vulnerabilities’
1. Magnitude
2. Timing
3. Persistence and Reversibility
4. Likelihood
5. Potential for adaptation
6. Distribution
7. Importance of the system
17
Vulnerability Assessment
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
NRCAN Model
Steps 2 – 4 are the “VA”1. Assess current situation2. Estimate future conditions3. Estimate future vulnerability
18
Vulnerability Assessment
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability influenced by: Adaptive capacity:
Ability to moderate damages and cope with consequences
Coping Ranges: The range of circumstances within which
significnt impacts do not occur Critical Thresholds
Upper and lower boundaries of coping range
19
Vulnerability Assessment
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Ford & Smit (2004) V = f (E, A)
Vulnerability is a function of exposure and adaptive capacity
20
Hybrid Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
CIG Guidebook Vulnerability Assessment followed by
Risk Assessment
Process Step Purpose
Vulnerability Assessment
• Find weak spots• Figure out which risks can be adapted to with
available capacity, and which require actions outside available capacity
Risk Assessment• Figure out the highest risks needing action• What to pay attention to first
21
Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability = sensitivity x adaptive capacity
Planning
Area
Current Stress/ Impact
Future Stress with
climate change
Sensitivity analysis
(high, medium,
low)
Adaptive Capacity
(high, medium
low)
Vulnerability
(function of sensitivity
and AC)
Water Managing summer drought
Lower snowpack and warmer drier summers = more drought
High – drought conditions likely to worsen, summer demand exceeds supply
Low- cannot influence snowpack, limited options to expand water supply
High
22
Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Risk Assessment Risk = Consequence x Probability
Current Stress/ Impact
Future Stress with
climate change
Sensitivity
Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Consequence
(low, medium,
high)
Probability
(low, medium,
high, unknown)
Risk
(high, medium, low)
Managing summer drought
Lower snowpack and warmer drier summers = more drought
High Low High High – public safety threat, loss of confidence
High – alreadya concernand warmer,drier conditionsexpected.
High
23
Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
End Result: Priority planning areas based on risk and
vulnerability assessment
Low Vulnerability
High Vulnerability
High RiskMay be priority planning areas
Should be priority planning
areas
Low RiskAre unlikely to
be priority planning areas
May be priority planning areas
24
Hybrid Approach- District of Elkford
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Same as CIG, but substituted consequence for vulnerability in the risk assessment process
“Workshop’ approach
Flooding RisksSensitivity(L, M, H)
Adaptive Capacity(L, M, H)
Vulnerability(VL,L,M,H,VH)
Flooding of buildings or lands High Low Very High
Damage to bridge integrity High Low Very High
Storm water management stress Moderate High Low
Death/ injury to river recreation users
Low Moderate Low
Pumphouse floods and compromises water supply
High Moderate High
25
Hybrid Approach- District of Elkford
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability
Very high
Wildfire enters town
High Evacuation
Mine closure
Damage to Infrastructure
Road highway closure
Smoke alert
ModerateLawsuit
Loss of life
Low
Backcountry forest
closure
Very Low
Unlikely to
occurMay occur
once
Likely to occur at
least once
Likely to occur
several times
Occurs frequently
Probability (20 year planning period)
Sample: Wildfire Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Summary
26
Kimberley “Working Group” Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Used climate science, local observations, and input from workshops and community survey to identify priority issues: Water and Forests Municipal Infrastructure Tourism
Multi-stakeholder working groups formed to conduct vulnerability assessment and identify adaptive actions for each issue
1st meeting: Identify and screen vulnerabilities:
Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Vulnerability
2nd Meeting Outline adaptation actions for
27
What about opportunities?
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Opportunity(e.g. increased revenue for tourism businesses)
Impact(e.g. prolonged outdoor recreation and summer tourism)
28
Opportunity Assessment
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Risks
Probability
V. High
High
Mod
Low
V. Low
V. Low Low Mod High V.
High
Consequence
Adopted from Hilson (2002)
29
Opportunity Assessment
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Risks Opportunities
Probability
V. High
V. High
Probability
High High
Mod Mod
Low Low
V. Low
V. Low
V. Low Low Mod High V.
HighV.
High High Mod Low V. Low
Consequence
Adopted from Hilson (2002)
30
Summary
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Strengths Weakness
Risk-based Approach
• Linear, step by step approach
• Supported by International Standards
• Consistent methodology and terminology
• Complex and subjective assessment (likelihood)
• Not grounded in climate change
31
Summary
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Strengths Weakness
Risk-based Approach
• Linear, step by step approach
• Supported by International Standards
• Consistent methodology and terminology
• Complex and subjective assessment (likelihood)
• Not grounded in climate change
Vulnerability Assessment
• Climate change specific• Incorporates non-climatic
future scenarios
• Non-linear• Coping ranges and critical
thresholds are difficult to determine
32
Summary
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Strengths Weakness
Risk-based Approach
• Linear, step by step approach
• Supported by International Standards
• Consistent methodology and terminology
• Complex and subjective assessment (likelihood)
• Not grounded in climate change
Vulnerability Assessment
• Climate change specific• Includes non-climatic
future scenarios
• Non-linear• Coping ranges and critical
thresholds are difficult to determine
Hybrid – combined RA/VA
• Comprehensive• Step by step guide
• Longer process, more resources required
33
Summary
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Strengths Weakness
Risk-based Approach
• Linear, step by step approach
• Supported by International Standards
• Consistent methodology and terminology
• Complex and subjective assessment (likelihood)
• Not grounded in climate change
Vulnerability Assessment
• Climate change specific• Includes non-climatic
future scenarios
• Non-linear• Coping ranges and critical
thresholds are difficult to determine
Hybrid – combined RA/VA
• Comprehensive• Step by step guide
• Longer process, more resources required
Kimberley ‘working group approach’
• Cost effective• Builds community
support for process• Few technical experts
needed
• No standardized process• Subjective VA process
34
Selecting a RA/VA Approach
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
Which process struck a cord with you?
Which process seems most appropriate for your community?
What is your capacity/ resource availability?
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
35
Selected References• Australian Government (2008) Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Retrieved
November 22, 2009 from: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/local-government/risk-management.aspx
• Black, Bruce, & Egener (2009) Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-Based Guide for Alberta Municipalities. Retrieved November 22, 2009 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/176a_e.pdf
• Carter, Parry, Nishioka , & Harasawa (1994) Technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations. University College London, England and Centre for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, 59 pp
• Harford, D. (2008) Climate Change Adaptation: Planning for BC. Retrieved from Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions website: www.pics.uvic.ca/research.php
• Hilson, D (2002) Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. International Journal of Project Management, 20, 235–240.
• Noble, Bruce, Egener, (2005) An Overview of the Risk Management Approach to Climate Change in Canada. Retrieved March 11, 2010 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/NobleBruceEgener2005_e.pdf
• NRCAN (Natural Resources Canada) (2007) From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. Chapter 8 –British Columbia. Retrieved November 28, 2009 from http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php
• Parzen, J. (ed). (2008). Chicago Area Climate Change Quick Guide: Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change. For Municipalities and Other Organizations. Retrieved March 9, 2010 from: http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/Chicago_Quick_Guide_to_Climate_Change_Preparation_June_2008.pdf
• Schneider, Semenov, & Patwardhan, (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Chapter 19, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp
• Snover, Whitely Binder, Lopez, Willmott, Kay, Howell, & Simmonds. (2007). Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA.
• Halifax Regional Municipality (2007) Climate Change: Developer's Risk Management Guide.
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