risk analysis the fundamentals and applications k. subramaniam, lecturer (envt.health) & safety...

Risk AnalysisThe Fundamentals and

Applications

K. Subramaniam,

Lecturer (Envt.Health) & Safety

Faculty of Health Science,

UiTM Jpuncak Alam.

Risk : What is it?

The probability of an adverse

event and the magnitude of the

consequences…

Risk vs Safety

Nutritious -vs- tasty

#1 rated car -vs- a good car

A contract -vs- agreement

The weather -vs- a bad day

Consider:

Risk is measurable, objective, and based on fixed criteria

http://www.socialaffairsunit.org.uk/

Elements of risk

Probability (or likelihood, chance)

Consequences (or impact)

Uncertainty

Ability to manage

There must be a potential ‘hazard’ for risk to exist

Insurance Coverage for Risks

Company

Risk Criteria

Choice of action Voluntary or involuntary

Chance for loss Probability or frequency

Magnitude of loss Character, extent, time

Ability to manage Resources, timing

So, What is Risk Analysis?

A systematic way of gathering,

evaluating, and recording

information leading to

recommendations for a position or

action in response to an identified

hazard

Why do Risk Analysis?

Before you can manage

something you must be

able to measure it

Risk Analysis should:

Identify hazards

Characterize risks

Recognize uncertainty

Summarize conclusions

Recommend options

Document the basis for decisions

Components of Risk Analysis

[Initiation]

Hazard Identification

Risk Assessment Probability, consequences, uncertainty

Risk Management Efficacy, feasibility, impacts

[Risk communication]

The Hazard Question

What am I afraid will happen??

OR

What is the adverse event??

Risk Assessment Questions

What information is available?

What is the quantity and quality of information?

What is the probability?

What is the magnitude of the consequences (if I do nothing)?

Should something be done?

Exposure Assessment

http://www.cdphe.state.co.us/

Risk Management Questions

What can be done to eliminate or reduce the hazard?

How effective are the options?

How feasible are the options?

What impacts do the options have?

What is the level and type of uncertainty?

What is the best option?

Risk Matrix

3

2

1

1 2 3

Variability and Uncertainty

Variability is not reduced with more or better

information

Uncertainty may be:

Modeling or measurement errors

Gaps in information

Out-of-date information

Incorrect assumptions

Risk Communication

Open, multiple exchanges of information and opinions that lead to better understanding and decisions:

Consulting

Informing

Explaining or justifying

http://www.epa.gov/oswer/riskassessment/images/risk_web_graphic3.gif

Transparency

Document information sources

Identify processes/methods

Provide rationale for conclusions and

decisions

Describe uncertainty and identify data

gaps or areas for additional research

Mitigationrequires

assessment

Risk requires

mitigation

Initiation

Identify hazard(s)

Estimate the likelihood ofoccurrence

Estimate the magnitudeof the consequences

Develop conclusions and describe uncertainty

Develop recommendationsand describe uncertainty

Evaluate mitigation options for: -Efficacy -Feasibility -Impacts

Identify mitigation options

Decisionmaking

Describe the concern which has the need.Understand the background and

expectations.

Evaluate recommendations against current environmentand values to select an option.

Risk Assessment

Risk Management

http://www.risktaking.co.uk/images/Risk%20orientation%20diagram.jpg

Benefits of Risk Analysis

a) Justify and defend decisions

b) Evaluate decisions of others

c) Prioritize resources

d) View risk objectively and realistically

e) Identify research and information needs

f) Identify technical points of difference

http://www.in.gov/idem/images/risk_slide-03.gif

Risk Screening

http://www.oracle-services.com.au/images/risk_matrix.gif

The Stakeholders and Important Linkages

Policy makers

Regulators

Researchers

Civil society

… And the Precautionary Approach?

Rio Declaration (1992) Principle 15

“In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States...

• lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”

Art 2.2 - “Sufficient scientific evidence”

Is the absence of evidence of a hazard

evidence of absence of a hazard?

A key component of risk analysis is

identifying uncertainty …

A key component of decision-making is

considering the uncertainty.

The Role of Precaution

In the judgment of the acceptable level

of risk - taking into account the

scientific evidence and uncertainty

In the judgment of strength of measures

- taking into account the scientific

evidence and uncertainty

Some sources of information….

More, faster, cheaper…

The Internet

Integrated Risk Assessment

http://www.eu-vri.eu/images/public/IntegratedRisk.jpg

References

D.O.E. (2004). EIA Guidelines for Risk Assessment. DOE, 2004.

Griffin, R.L. (2007). Pest Risk Analysis. International Plant Protection

Convention, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN.

Thank you…Please ask if

you are in doubt…