richard yablonsky biju thomas,

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Isaac Ginis1, Richard Yablonsky1, Biju Thomas1, Morris Bender2, and Vijay Tallapragada3

1University of Rhode Island          2NOAA/OAR/GFDL          3NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

68th Interdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceTuesday, March 4, 2014

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MPIPOM‐TC uses MPI software to run efficiently on multiple processors, allowing for both higher grid resolution and a larger ocean domain than POM‐TC

MPIPOM‐TC accepts flexible initialization options MPIPOM‐TC is an adaptation of sbPOM, which has community support and includes 18 years of physics updates and bug fixes

MPIPOM‐TC is a modernized code with NetCDF I/O MPIPOM‐TC uses a single prognostic code in all worldwide GFDL, GFDN, and HWRF ocean basins

GFDL/N & HWRF Ocean Model Upgrade: Replacing POM‐TC with MPIPOM‐TC

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POM‐TC Atlantic Domains:“United” and “East Atlantic”

225

157

47.5°N

10.0°N30°W60°W

~18-km gridspacing

254 50°W98.5°W

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URI’s MPIPOM‐TC transatlantic domain47.5°N

449

10.0°N

~9 kmhorizontal

grid spacing

15.3°W98.5°W 869

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MPIPOM‐TC vs. POM‐TC: Ocean response to Hurricane Katia (through 2011090800)

MPIPOM-TC SST (full domain) POM-TC SST (full domain) MPIPOM-TC – POM-TC SST

MPIPOM-TC SST (wake only) POM-TC SST (wake only) 20110908 TMI 3-day SST

More cooling in MPIPOM-TC

MPIPOM-TC agrees with TMI TMI is “observed” SST product

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Hurricane Sandy 18L: 2012102506

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)& HWRF/POM-TC (red)tracks are similar, but missthe left recurvature late

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)vs. HWRF/POM-TC (red)max wind: noisy, but bestfit is HWRF/MPIPOM-TC

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)vs. HWRF/POM-TC (red)pressure: best forecast isHWRF/MPIPOM-TC

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCtrack standard deviations:2012102506 forecastis highlighted red

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCmax wind std dev

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCpressure std dev

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MPIPOMTC SST + Currents POM-TC SST + Currents MPIPOMTC – POM-TC SST

48h 48h 48h

Hurricane Sandy 18L: 2012102506

More cooling in MPIPOM-TC:Better intensity?

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Hurricane Sandy 18L: 2012102612

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)& HWRF/POM-TC (red)tracks: HWRF/MPIPOM-TCcaptures recurvature better

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)vs. HWRF/POM-TC (red)max wind: noisy with noclear “winner”

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)vs. HWRF/POM-TC (red)pressure: very similaruntil landfall at the end

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCtrack standard deviations:2012102612 forecastis highlighted red

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCmax wind std dev

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCpressure std dev

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Hurricane Sandy 18L: 2012102612

Better MPIPOM-TC Gulf Streamevolution improved track?

MPIPOMTC SST + Currents POM-TC SST + Currents MPIPOMTC – POM-TC SST

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Hurricane Katia 12L: 2011083018

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)& HWRF/POM-TC (red)tracks are similar

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)vs. HWRF/POM-TC (red)max wind: best forecastis HWRF/MPIPOM-TC

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)vs. HWRF/POM-TC (red)pressure: best forecast isHWRF/MPIPOM-TC

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCtrack standard deviations:2011083018 forecastis highlighted red

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCmax wind std dev

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCpressure std dev

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Hurricane Katia 12L: 2011083018

MPIPOMTC SST + Currents POM-TC SST + Currents MPIPOMTC – POM-TC SST

Coupling east of 50°W in MPIPOM-TC: Better

intensity & cooling overall?

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Hurricane Earl 07L: 2010082512

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)& HWRF/POM-TC (red)tracks are nearly identical

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)vs. HWRF/POM-TC (red)max wind: best forecastis HWRF/MPIPOM-TC

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC (blue)vs. HWRF/POM-TC (red)pressure: best forecast isHWRF/MPIPOM-TC

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCtrack standard deviations:2010082512 forecastis highlighted red

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCmax wind std dev

HWRF/MPIPOM-TC& HWRF/POM-TCpressure std dev

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Hurricane Earl 07L: 20100825 12 & 18 Z

MPIPOMTC SST + Currents POM-TC SST + Currents MPIPOMTC – POM-TC SST

Coupling eastof 50°W in

MPIPOM-TC:better intensity?

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Proposed Worldwide MPIPOM‐TC domains

TransatlanticEast PacificWest Pacific

North Indian

South Indian South WestPacific

South EastPacific

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URI’s MPIPOM‐TC West Pacific Domain: Ocean Response to Supertyphoon Bolaven with 

NCODA initialization: 2012082300‐2800

23/00ZSST

28/00ZSST

23/00Z77.5-m T

28/00Z77.5-m T

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URI’s MPIPOM‐TC West Pacific Domain: Ocean Response to Supertyphoon Bolaven with 

GDEMv3 + GFS SST initialization: 2012082300‐2800

23/00ZSST

28/00ZSST

23/00Z77.5-m T

28/00Z77.5-m T

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GFDL/MPIPOM‐TC retrospective forecast of Supertyphoon Haiyan, initialized 2013110500 (NCODA)

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Hurricane Model

Ocean Model

Air‐Sea Interface

Wind speed (Ua)Temperature (Ta)Humidity (qa)

Momentum flux (τ)Temperature fluxShortwave radiation

aaDa UUC saaHH TTUCQ saaEP

VE qqUC

CLQ

Momentum flux (τ)Sensible heat flux (QH)Latent heat flux (QE)

SST (Ts)

GFDL/N and HWRF Ocean Coupling

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Uc Uλ SST

τdiff, τCor, α, γ, La

λ

Uref Rib, Uc

τair – atm. stress FQ – latent heat flux FS – sensible heat flux FR – radia on heat flux θ – poten al temperature Rref– atm. spec. humidity Rib – bulk Richardson num. Uref – atm. wind τc – stress on currents SST – sea surf. temperature

Ocean flu

x

e s

Atmospheric flu

x

e s

Wave flu

x

e s

Ψ

τc

τdiff τCor,τair

La λ FR FQ FS

Rref, Uref, θref

γ, α Uc, SST

τair, FQ, FS

Atmospheric Model

Ocean Model

Wave Model Uλ

U10N

Uref,FR

ASIM

Rib, τair FS, FQ

Coupler

Uc – surface current Uλ – current at depth λ – mean wavelength γ –wind/stress misalignment α – Charnock coefficient τCor‐ Coriolis‐Stokes stress τdif – wave mom. budget Ψ – wave spectrum La – Langmuir number U10N – neutral 10m wind

University of Rhode Island

Atmosphere‐Wave‐Ocean Coupled Framework for GFDL/N and HWRF models

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GFDL/(WWIII)/POM‐TC 72‐h Forecast of Hurricane Irene (2011082612) 

RHG

35-m Drag Coefficient

No wave couplingFully coupled

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GFDL/(WWIII)/POM‐TC 72‐h Forecast of Hurricane Irene (2011082612) 

RHG

35-m Wind (m/s)

No wave couplingFully coupled

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GFDL/(WWIII)/POM‐TC 72‐h Forecast of Hurricane Irene (2011082612) 

DCCM RHG

SST (oC)

No wave couplingFully coupled Fully coupled – No wave

SST (oC) ΔSST (oC)

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Major 2014 upgrade of the GFDL/N and HWRF ocean model components: Replacing POM-TC with MPIPOM-TC.

Alternative MPIPOM-TC ocean initialization options are being evaluated and tested for future implementation.

A fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean framework has been developed for the GFDL/N and HWRF models to explicitly resolve effects of wind-wave-current interactions.

The next step is to investigate the influence of explicit wave coupling on hurricane prediction. Near real-time test runs are planned in 2014.

Summary