richard bent

Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies

Practical Applications of

Computational Criminology

Richard Bent Senior Research Fellow

PRIMERA CUMBRE INTERNACIONAL DE ANÁLISIS CRIMINAL CIENTÍFICO

Overview of Presentation

• Computational Criminology

• uMetro Police Resourcing Model

• Modeling Co-Offending Networks

▫ Gangs and Organized Crime Networks

• Other Projects of Interest

▫ Mental Health – Interactions with Police

▫ Criminal Justice Simulation Model

▫ CourBC

Crime is not random:

• Routine Space ▫ The daily rhythm, Activity Space

• Awareness space ▫ Around Routine Space

• Social Networks ▫ Family, friends, repeat contacts

• Urban Structure ▫ Nodes, paths, edges

• Individual and aggregate patterns

Crime Patterns

• Nodes

• Paths

• Edges

• Crime Attractors

• Crime Generators

K. Wuschke, ICURS

uMetro Police Resourcing Model

Public Safety and Public Order Needs - Overview

Katie Wuschke, ICURS

uMetro - Background

• Police resource models are retrospective

• uMetro is forward looking, based on evidence

• Novel approach linking geography and computational criminology

• Changing land use, changes crime

Where We Started: • Collaborative effort between City officials, the

RCMP Detachment, and ICURS

• Data-sharing agreements developed ▫ Goal: To provide empirical research outlining the

possible outcomes of population expansion and urban development on a variety of scales

▫ Specific focus on policing needs

• Excel-based model estimating Full Time Equivalents (FTE) needed to handle growth

Data Needs:

Policing Data

Required Data:

• Minimum two years of PRIME data – temporally matched to land use data • Full Time Equivalent organizational breakdown • Workload per Call by Land Use measure (CAD data or focus group) Beneficial Data and Input: • FTE projections/estimations for projection years • Scenario input

Municipal Data

Required Data: •Minimum two years of detailed land use data (British Columbia Assessment Authority) Beneficial Data and Input: • Urban Growth Figures: New Lot Counts by Land Use for projection years • Cadastral parcel outlines • Orthographic Photos • Additional Urban Spatial Files •Scenario input

Data Collection

Data Joining

Data Input & Queries

Output

Police PRIME/CAD

Records

Municipal BC

Assessment Authority Land Use

Police Calls for Service

records joined to

Land Use Data by address

2009 Dispatch Records joined

to Land Use Data

Workload per Call by Land

Calls for Service by Land Use

Change/Growth in Land Use

RCMP FTEs per Calls for Service

Projected Total Required FTEs

Projected Land Use Growth

Projected Total Calls for Service

Projected Total Workload

• Land Use Projections

• Model Output

▫ The current model

explores three scenarios, and compares these scenarios to the actual/expected FTE allotment for the given detachment for each year of study.

Model Review

• Full Time Equivalents

• Model Output

▫ The current

model explores three scenarios, and compares these scenarios to the actual/expected FTE allotment for the given detachment for each year of study.

Model Development: Upcoming

Phases

• Next Steps: ▫ Expanding model to include considerations of

interactions between land use and environmental features (major roadways)

▫ Incorporating expert knowledge to solidify the numbers used in calculation Workload per Call to specific land uses Focus

Groups and Interviews with RCMP Officers

Land use projections Urban Planning departments, Site C Hydro Electric dam

Modeling Co-offending Networks

Richard Frank

Mohammad Tayebi

Vahid Dabbaghian

Co-offending Drug Networks -

• Used RCMP PIRS data, mid-2001 to mid-2006

• 4.4 million events, 9 million subjects

• Used to extract all drug networks from PIRS using co-offending links

• There were 3592 drug networks with at least 5 offenders

Drug network 1

• 300 offenders (102 female, 198 male)

• 991 links

Drug network 2

• 100 offenders

• 2356 links

Event #1

Event #2

Drug network 3

• 485 offenders

• 1765 links

Drug network 4

• 503 offenders

• 1595 links

network 5

• 918 offenders

• 18182 links

Drug network 6

• 182 offenders

• 1702 links

Gangs/Organised Crime and

Networks

• Since 2009 Over 276 gang related shootings (CBC, 2011)

• Micro Meso Macro influence factors

• VPD GCU IGTF CFSEU

• ICURS can analyze:

▫ Social networks

▫ Co-offending networks

▫ Travel patterns

▫ Computer and mathematical models for policy decision-making Hilary Kim Morden - ICURS

Gangs and Networks – Benefits to

Police

• Using co-offending data, criminal intelligence, analyses of wiretap and other communication information

• Potentially aids police in targeting in order to achieve most disruption of gang/organized crime activity

Other Projects

• Mental Health Interactions with Police

• Criminal Justice Simulation Model

• CourBC

Mental Health Calls for Service

• The numbers of interactions between police and persons with mental health issues increased

▫ Especially repeat contacts

▫ Increased concurrent issues

▫ Increased violence

▫ Many other social issues – homelessness, victimisation/repeat victimisation

• Province of British Columbia Policing Plan

Mental Health Calls for Service

• Identified as priority by police and community

▫ Clear need for better coordination and information sharing between government agencies

▫ Need for more detailed research

• Common concern in Canada, US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand (likely other countries)

▫ One police department recorded16% of all calls for service involved persons with mental health issues

▫ Consumes a great deal of police resources

Past Research

• Focused on: ▫

▫ Police responses and use of force

▫ Police Training

• All important issues, however, incomplete picture of police and criminal justice system dealings with persons with mental illness

Analyses of Medium sized City

Mental Health CFS

• Reviewed detailed police reports of apprehensions by police under the Mental Health Act

• Data incomplete

▫ does not include all interactions, e.g: victims, suspects, at risk to themselves, witnesses, or in some cases Charged.

• Analysed events for frequency involving primary subject and ‘Charged’ data

Number of Events - Primary Subjects are Involved

Number of

Primary

Subjects

Events

Primary

Subjects

Events

1 to 10 1268 5193 58.8 11.7

11 to 20 338 5039 15.7 11.3

21 to 30 151 3747 7.0 8.4

31 to 40 95 3316 4.4 7.4

41 to 50 75 3359 3.5 7.5

51 to 100 157 10966 7.3 24.6

101 to 200 56 7555 2.6 17.0

over 200 16 5358 0.7 12.0

Total 2156 44533 100.0 100.0

Grouped Charge Counts for Primary Subjects

Number

charges

Number

Primary

Subjects

Charges

Primary

Subjects

Charges

0 1644 0 76.3 0.0

1 120 120 5.6 3.2

2 to 5 221 710 10.3 19.0

6 to 10 82 630 3.8 16.9

11 to 20 47 693 2.2 18.6

21 to 30 20 488 0.9 13.1

31 to 40 9 310 0.4 8.3

over 40 13 780 0.6 20.9

Total 2156 3731 100.0 100.0

Mental Health Act – Calls for

Service • Most contact with Persons with Mental Health

Issues are non-criminal

▫ Small percentage of subjects account for a significant percentage of the police contacts

• The average times to deal with Mental Health call.

▫ 2 ½ hours if subject apprehended under MHA (in a large city in BC).

Current Mental Health Research

• Working with Ministry of Justice, regional Health Authorities, other key agencies

▫ BC Policing Plan Action Item

▫ Analyses of PRIME (police) data at provincial level

• Evaluation of Current intervention models

• Retrospective study of persons found not criminally responsible

Criminal Justice Simulation Model

• Joint project with IRMACS – ICURS affiliate

• Partner with Ministry of Justice, Province of British Columbia

• Model to identify resource needs throughout ministry – Prosecution Services, Court Services and Corrections when additional police added

• Personnel, financial, and physical resources

CourBC

• Created from daily BC Court Services on-line publications

• Automated reverse engineering program

• Adult criminal cases: Provincial – Federal – Supreme

• Data collection since 2007

Andrew Reid - ICURS

CourBC - Analyses

• Sentencing patterns across courts

• Track bail records

▫ Length of custody

▫ Length of remand

▫ Police and Crown decision to lay charges

• General sentencing trends

▫ Chronic offenders

▫ Mental health

▫ Property offenders

CourBC Analytics

• A Graphic user interface to access the CourBC data

• Some Capabilities:

▫ Tracking the flow of cases in the court system up

to conclusion based on the folder number or name

▫ Summarizing the percentages of cases that are

found Guilty, Stayed, Dismissed in the court for

each crime

CourBC Analytics

▫ Reporting on the complexity of cases in the court

system based on specific parameters:

For example, number of co-offenders, type of crime

▫ Reports of most frequently charged criminals and

crimes in a given time interval in a court

Amir Ghraseminejad – PhD Candidate ICURS

Gracias

¿Preguntas?

Richard Bent

rcbent@sfu.ca

richard bent

land use data workload

icurs data

policing data

land use calls

urban development

land use measure cad

land use changegrowth

growth institute

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