rethinking how we get around sunnyvale

Rethinking

How We Get

Around:

Sunnyvale

Ria Hutabarat Lo, PhD

11 September, 2014

Source: Ria Hutabarat Lo

What is the problem?

How did we get here?

Where is congestion from?

■ Cities have faced congestion for a centuries

– As cities succeed in attracting people from other places,

congestion occurs

– Congestion is an economic issue: demand > supply

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Silicon Valley Semiconductor Wafer

Source: Ria Hutabarat Lo

Manchester Murray’s Mills, 1831

Source: thehumanjourney.net

How have we dealt with congestion?

■ Western cities historically addressed traffic like sewage

– The first Western traffic engineers were sanitation engineers

– Gravity models atomistic travel demand models

– Fluid dynamics vehicle flow

■ Traffic engineering approaches were institutionalized

– Travel demand models to predict

– Design standards to help provide

– Metrics to measure performance

■ The institutions have been biased and incomplete

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What are transportation institutions?

1. Trip Generation

(pop & jobs by zone)

2. Trip Distribution

(gravity model)

3. Mode Split

(fn trip type, income…)

4. Route Assignment

(based on travel times)

4-STEP MODEL

What is the problem with predictions?

S1 Travel

time

(cost)

Q, Traffic Flow

(veh/hour)

Q1

T1

D1

Q2

T2

S2

T1b

INDUCED TRAVEL DEMAND

What is the problem with predictions?

D1 S1

S2

Travel

time

(cost)

Q, Traffic Flow

(veh/hour)

D3

Q1 Q2 Q3

T1 T2

T1b

T3

INDUCED TRAVEL DEMAND

+ INDUCED INVESTMENT

What are transportation institutions? HCM’s LOS

Level of Service

(LOS) Signalized Intersection Unsignalized Intersection

A ≤10 sec ≤10 sec

B 10-20 sec 10-15 sec

C 20-35 sec 15-25 sec

D 35-55 sec 25-35 sec

E 55-80 sec 35-50 sec

F ≥80 sec ≥50 sec

Traffic engineering: F A

A F Economics :

Photo: http://www.partyearth.com/boston/festivals/berklee-beantown-jazz-festival-

1/the-2013-berklee-beantown-jazz-festival-1/

Photo: John Welch, http://thettablog.blogspot.com/2010/05/boston-

may-22-noon-very-bright.html

What is the problem with performance measures?

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What are the results of this approach?

■ Roads are widened &

designed for fast traffic

■ Cities are still congested

■ Places are auto-oriented

■ Can’t go places without car

■ Injury, emissions, inactivity &

isolation

■ Worst impacts on the poor,

people with disabilities,

seniors & children

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 11 Source: FHWA

Is there another way to deal with transportation problems?

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Is there another way to predict demand?

Connected

Cities

Destinations in Silicon Valley

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■ Where are:

– jobs?

– services?

– people’s homes?

■ Are destinations

– connected to each

other?

– walkable?

– concentrated around

transit?

Adaptive Cities

e.g. Stockholm, Copenhagen, Tokyo, Singapore

Source: Robert Cervero, Transit Metropolis

Why do we need rapid transit?

■ Santa Clara County will add 600k residents, 300k jobs by 2040

■ Which mode do we want for additional trips on El Camino Real?

15 Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc.

Source: Cycling Promotion Fund

What is Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)?

■ Unique branding

■ Widely-spaced “station stops” with amenities

– realtime bus arrival information

■ Good ped/bike connections

■ Coordination with connecting services

■ Signal timing, signal priority, queue jump

■ Frequent service

■ Low-floor, multi-door boarding

■ Off-board fare collection

■ Dedicated lanes

F

ull B

RT

R

ap

id B

us

What are the BRT proposals & impacts for El Camino Real?

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Alphabet Soup and El Camino Real

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■ Regional agencies (MTC/ABAG) developed Plan Bay Area

2013

– Plan Bay Area identified Priority Development Areas (PDAs),

including El Camino Real

■ VTA is pursuing a BRT project on El Camino Real

– Releasing DEIS, October 2014

– Presenting locally preferred alternative, February 2015

■ Grand Boulevard Initiative (GBI) recognized VTA’s El

Camino BRT project 2013

– Revitalize El Camino Real

– Create nodes for economic and housing opportunities

– Create walkable, bikeable,

transit-friendly Complete Street

Source: VTA 2014

Alternative 1: Do Nothing

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 19 Source: VTA 2014

VTA’s estimate impacts of Alternative 1: Do Nothing

■ Transit quality: speeds & on-time reliability decline

■ Transit ridership: grows with population and jobs

■ Auto speed & capacity: unchanged, road retains same feel

■ Safety: No improvements

■ Cost: $0 (capital) + $0.8 million (operating)

■ Farebox recovery: no change

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 20 Source: VTA 2014

Alternative 2: Mixed Flow

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 21 Source: VTA 2014

Alternative 3A: Do Nothing / Mixed Flow+

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 22 Source: VTA 2014

Alternative 3B: Mixed Flow+

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 23 Source: VTA 2014

VTA’s estimate impacts of Alternative 2: Mixed Flow

■ Transit quality: 9% faster than Do Nothing

■ Transit ridership: grows 4% faster than Do Nothing

■ Auto speed & capacity: unchanged, road retains same feel

■ Safety: Curb bulbouts shorten crossings at stations

■ Cost: Measure A (capital), $1.9 million saving (operating)

■ Farebox recovery: grows $0.9 million

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 24

Source:

VTA 2014

Alternative 4A: Partial Dedicated Lanes

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 25 Source: VTA 2014

Alternative 4B: Partial Dedicated Lanes

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 26 Source: VTA 2014

Alternative 4C: Full BRT

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 27 Source: VTA 2014

VTA’s estimate impacts of Alternative 4: Dedicated Lanes

■ Transit quality: 80% faster, frequent, reliable

■ Transit ridership: grows 23% faster than Do Nothing

■ Auto speed & capacity: 7% slower, route shifting in peak

■ Safety: Bike lanes, shorter & new signalized crossings

■ Funding: Msr A + $75M FTA (capital), $7M saving (operating)

■ Farebox recovery: up to $1.5 M

■

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 28

Source:

VTA 2014

What now?

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Where to now?

■ We all have an opportunity to participate in the production

of space and the future of El Camino Real

■ Participate in the planning process, talk with leaders and

people in your community

■ Consider the values with which we plan this space:

– Ecological sustainability?

– Social inclusion?

– Economic dynamism?

Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 30

NELSON\NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES © 2013

Ria Hutabarat Lo, PhD

116 New Montgomery Street

San Francisco, CA 94105

(415) 281-1544

rlo@nelsonnygaard.com