responding to power sector problems: the cogeneration option
Post on 30-Mar-2015
216 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Responding to Power Sector Problems:
The Cogeneration Option
Reliance on Hydro in East Africa
Kenya - 2007
Hydro 57%
Geothermal 10%
Thermal
33%
Tanzania - 2008
Hydro 52%
Thermal
48%
Years of Significant Drought (D)
Country 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Burundi D D
Djibouti D D
Eritrea D D D D D D
Ethiopia D D D D D D
Kenya D D D D D D
Rwanda D D
Sudan D D D D D
Tanzania D D D D D
Uganda D D D D D
0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50
Hydro Electric Power Generation in Kenya
Hydroelectric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours)
Source: IEA, 2008
Drought
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Hydro Electric Power Generation in Tanzania
Hydroelectric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours)
Source: IEA, 2008
DroughtDrought
Oil prices Nov ’07 – Nov ‘08
• Period of high oil prices coincided with drought in the region
• Drought affected hydro-power generation• Response option from Governments:
– Use expensive emergency thermal generation to meet rising demand
Status of Emergency Power Supply
Country
Date Contract Duration
Emergency Capacity
Percentage total installed capacity
Estimated annual cost as % GDP
Drought Related?
Rwanda 2005 2 years 15 48.4 1.84 Yes
Uganda 2006 2 years 100 41.7 3.29 Yes
Tanzania 2006 2 years 180 20.4 0.96 Yes
Kenya 2006 1 year 100 8.3 1.45 YesSource: Eberhard and others ( 2008 )
$ $
Impact of Inadequate Power Supply
• Un-reliable supply of electricity (Fluctuating voltage damages electrical appliances)
• Increase in cost of electricity production– Emergency power generators
charge up to 25 UScents – over 100% increase in tariffs
– Increase in production costs and cost of products to end users
– Long term impact of increased cost of production to power outages could be loss of jobs, especially for low income earners
$
Response Options
• Impossible to predict drought and volatility of the world petroleum prices, diversifying electricity generation sources is the best response option
• Need to look at other energy options to reduce impact of drought related power deficits
• Cogeneration – one of the key response options
Cogeneration Potential in East and Horn of Africa
Countries
Cogen potential as % of total Installed national power generation Capacity
from all sources
Ethiopia 4.3%
Kenya 13.9%
Malawi 23.7%
Sudan 20.8%
Swaziland 144.5%
Tanzania 11.1%
Uganda 15.2%
Recommendations for fast tracking cogeneration – Mauritius
model• Standard Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)
could contribute to the success of renewable based power generation in the region
• Allowing agro-based industries that benefit a large proportion of the population to participate in exploiting local energy resources
• Explicit renewables targets which should be realistic, home-grown and local
• Predetermined feed-in tariffs for renewable based electricity generation
Feed-in Tariff: Kenya
• Feed in tariff policy for Kenya published• Open to first 400MW after which likely to be
reviewed
Source Power plant capacity (MW)
Firm power Tariff (US cts/kWh)
Non firm power tariff (US cts/kWh)
Small hydro
<1 12.0 10.0
1-5 10.0 8.0
5-10 8.0 6.0
Wind <50 9.0 -
Biomass <40 7.0 4.5
Feed-in Tariff: Tanzania
• Tariff recently announced by regulator - EWURA
Category Period Tariff (US cents)
Standardised average small power purchase
NA 12
Seasonal adjusted Aug - Nov 10
Jan – Jul & Dec 14
Feed-in Tariff: Uganda
• Tariff mentioned in the energy policy documentTime of use Year 1-6 Year 7-20
Peak (1800-2400hrs) (US$/KWh) 12.00 8.00
Shoulder (0600-1800hrs) (US$/KWh) 6.00 4.50
Off-Peak (0000-0600hrs) (US$/KWh)4.10 4.00
Average Tariffs 7.03 5.25
top related