residential heating and cooling prepared by: will george ryan lester
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Residential Heatingand Cooling
Prepared by:
Will George
Ryan Lester
Causality Parameters
• Temperature – variance in temperature creates different energy demands for heating and cooling. Degree day data was compiled on a state by state basis.
• Households - number of households was available for each state by decade and interpolation was performed to find the missing years.
Causality Parameter Trends• Weather is assumed to remain constant over the
years, but varies spatially.• Housing units have been steadily increasing:
Housing Units
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Ho
us
ing
Un
its
CA
GA
MO
NY
Heating Data• Natural gas consumption per state per
month is available for the past 17 years.• Heating fuel usage was extracted and
applied to the housing units and degree days to come up with a conversion factor in the form of Btu/Housing Unit/Degree day.
• Housing Units and Weather are the parameters affecting the heating and cooling requirements
National Natural Gas Usage
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
Jan-85
Feb-85
Mar-85
Apr-85
May-85
Jun-85
Jul-85
Aug-85
Sep-85
Oct-85
Nov-85
Dec-85
Month/Year
MM
cf (
Bil
lio
n B
tu)
Subtract the amount from the lowest month from each month to find the amount used for heating. (The quantity from the lowest month represents utility gas uses other than heating.)
Heating energy per degree day and housing unit
0.0E+00
5.0E-06
1.0E-05
1.5E-05
2.0E-05
2.5E-05
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
BB
tu/H
DD
/Ho
usi
ng
Un
it
TN
AL
ND
CA
Heating fuels used per household were available per decade per state (1940-2000). These were interpolated to estimate per year for each state.
Knowing the contribution in Btu by natural gas allowed the other fuel energies to be calculated.
Heating Fuels
Heating Trend
NY Heating Energy by Fuel
0.00E+00
5.00E+04
1.00E+05
1.50E+05
2.00E+05
2.50E+05
3.00E+05
3.50E+05
4.00E+05
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
BB
tu
Natural Gas Bottled Gas Electricity Fuel Oil/Kero Coal
Natural Gas usage is rising, Coal and Fuel Oil usage is dropping, and electricity is rising slowly. Wood usage has dropped significantly since the 1940s.
Emissions Factors (Mg carbon/BBtu)
• Natural gas 14.47
• Wood 100.67
• Kerosene 19.72
• Coal 25.9
Natural gas emits far fewer emissions than the other fuels
Cooling Data
• Have AC usage data by region for 1993, 1997, and 2001. Average proportion of energy used by region assumed to be constant over time.
• National energy use for a number of years given. Extrapolation and interpolation done on missing years.
Calibration CurvesAC Usage Per Household vs. Cooling Degree Days
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Cooling Degree Days
AC
Usa
ge
per
Ho
use
ho
ld (
MB
tu)
2001
1997
Linear (2001)
Linear (1997)
Cooling TrendState AC Usage
0.00
10000.00
20000.00
30000.00
40000.00
50000.00
60000.00
70000.00
80000.00
90000.00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
AC
En
erg
y U
sed
(B
Btu
)
Louisiana
Massachusetts
California
Minnesota
Texas
Cooling Trend
• Energy used for each state has been increasing overall.
• This increase is a result in increased number of houses and an increase in the percentage of houses that have AC.
• Some of the inconsistency is due to spotty national AC usage data. Also, an increase in AC efficiency will cause a decrease in AC usage if the number of households remains steady.
Suggested Changes
• Migration to the warmer states– Heating degree days far outweigh cooling
degree days
• Increase people per household
• Change heating fuel
• Change thermostat setting
• Close off unused rooms
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