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ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 1
CREDIT AND POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE (CPRI)JULY 2016
REPORT AND MARKET UPDATE
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 2
Founded by Arthur Gallagher in Chicago in 1927, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co has grown to become one of the largest insurance brokerage and risk management companies in the world. With significant reach internationally, the group employs over 21,500 people and its global network provides services in more than 150 countries.
Outside the US, we use the brand name Arthur J. Gallagher.
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016
CONTENTS
Review 2Commercial Market Overview 6Available Market Capacity 9Total Capacity Available by Tenor – July 2016 10Available Market Capacity Comparison 11Emerging Markets Country Risk Ratings 12Contacts 15
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 2
CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016
“The economic and geopolitical outlook appears more unsettled this year than it has in decades, but we can spread the message that existing political risk and political violence insurance products will provide multinational businesses with the necessary risk mitigation tools for operating in the current global environment.” Steven Fidler, Wall Street Journal.
The Arthur J. Gallagher Market Update for July 2016 summarises the changes in line structure and tenors available from commercial political risk insurers since our last report in January 2016. The summary reflects the outcome of reinsurance negotiations where renewals have been completed in the intervening period, as well as the arrival of any new insurers who have gained approval for their business plans and obtained sufficient capital allocations. Additionally, any changes to credit agencies’ rating of the insurers are detailed herein.
Since the January 2016 edition, the world has experienced some significant economic and political events, to which the insurance market has been exposed. With the CPRI market heavily exposed to the vicissitudes of the commodities markets insurers are keen to diversify their books into alternative revenue streams.
In this issue of the Report and Market Update we have included details of the development of the Non-Trade (unsecured) market. For clarification, non-trade financing on a secured basis has been permitted for some time but in the past six months we have seen a noticeable increase in underwriter capacity. That said, particularly for Lloyd’s Syndicates, appetite for writing unsecured business is selective.
Global macroeconomic growth continued to stutter during the first half of 2016, with global real GDP expected to expand by 2.6% this year—the worst since 2013 and the second lowest since the global financial crisis.
In March, China released details regarding their 13th Five Year Plan, stressing the importance of economic restructuring. It is expected that China will become increasingly self-sufficient in the future; on the back of significant expansions in the technology and financial sectors. Measures stipulated in the plan also suggest a greater commitment to environmental stewardship.
The United States presidential election is proving itself to be the most unpredictable and populist in recent decades. A Trump presidency in November has become increasingly possible, far exceeding early expectations of the Republican candidate.
The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in the June “Brexit” referendum. The unexpected outcome shocked markets around the world and prompted the resignation of British Prime Minister David Cameron. Geopolitical uncertainty is likely to weigh heavily on the European economies over the coming years as parties negotiate the future of UK-EU relations. On the upside is an opportunity for the UK to increase cooperation with economies outside Europe; the devaluation of the GBP could also be a major draw for FDI.
Leaders of the European Union responded to the Brexit vote, indicating that it will only enter into negotiations once Article 50 has been instigated. The EU parliament is keen to end the insecurity brought about by the referendum and to salvage the most of what remains. 2017 will likely see the election of a new French president to replace François Hollande; while federal elections in Germany could challenge the position of Angela Merkel—who has been a pillar of continuity in Europe for more than a decade. Eurosceptic, anti-establishment and hard right wing parties are expected to gain momentum in EU member states, potentially destabilising the union and threatening a Eurozone fallout.
Commodity prices are expected to increase gradually across the board. Although benefitting from the rise in commodity prices, the prospect of a full recovery continues to be difficult for many emerging markets as they struggle with high budget deficits and slow economic reform.
In May, Brazil’s senate voted to suspend and put on trial President Dilma Rousseff for allegedly
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 3
breaking budget laws. Polls show interim President Michel Temer, whose market friendly policies are favoured by investors, to be highly unpopular among the public. The negative outlook on Mr Temer comes in response to harsh social program cuts and renewed allegations of his involvement in the ongoing corruption debacle.
In South Africa, President Jacob Zuma’s political position was effected as the “Zuma Must Fall” movement gained traction following upsets in recent months. Numerous protests against “corruption and cronyism” in the government signify the possibility of Mr Zuma being recalled should the November municipal elections swing against the African National Congress.
The political climate in Cambodia has further destabilised as the ruling Cambodia People’s Party intensifies its crackdown on the opposition ahead of the 2017 local elections. Rallying behind the opposition party, which is predicted to win in the next election, are the increasingly powerful garment sector unions.
The United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) peacekeeping force prepares to draw down—raising fears among investors as well as politicians themselves. A recent corruption scandal, alongside a contentious run-up to the 2017 elections, has increased the risk of violence in the short term.
Turkey has entered a period of high tension as violence spreads from across its border with Syria. In addition to those by Kurdish militants, Turkey continues to face threat of terrorist attacks by the so-called Islamic State (Daesh). Daesh has also claimed responsibility for a number of attacks outside the region this year; most notably in cities such as Jakarta, Brussels and Orlando.
After six months of involvement in the Syrian conflict, Russia began to withdraw the majority of its forces from the country. The downscaling of military operations would offer some respite to Russia’s recession-ravaged economy, and might even suggest an attempt to improve relationships between Russia and the West.
India-Pakistan peace talks were once again suspended, this time due to an attack on an Indian air base in January—weeks after Indian PM Modi paid a landmark visit to his counterpart in Pakistan. A healthy relationship with Pakistan is paramount to maintaining India’s interests in Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. However, India has become wary of the growing Islamabad-Beijing connection which includes the recent commencement of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Some of the upcoming elections expected in 2016 are summarised below:
Date Country Comment
July Sao Tome and Principe PresidentialAugust Zambia Presidential, LegislativeAugust Gabon Presidential
September Cape Verde PresidentialOctober Haiti Presidential Re-runOctober Maldova PresidentialOctober Bulgaria Presidential
November Nicaragua Presidential, ParliamentaryNovember Ghana Presidential, ParliamentaryNovember Democratic Republic of Congo Presidential, ParliamentaryDecember The Gambia PresidentialDecember Guyana Presidential
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 4
AIG
Edward Kelly has joined AIG as a Structured Credit underwriter in London. He most recently held the position of Director within the Emerging Markets Global Financing Group CEEMA at Credit Suisse, and has a long experience with the bank. He joins Tom Schild, AIG’s Structured Credit NY underwriter, to help AIG develop its medium term trade and non-trade Credit insurance product and to bridge the gap between AIG’s Political Risk and Trade Credit products.
Argo
Andrew Summers has joined ArgoGlobal from AIG Europe.
Chaucer
Chaucer launched a new strategic partnership in April with AXA to develop speciality business in Africa. This will allow Chaucer to write additional African business, alongside Chaucer’s current line capabilities, which will be reinsured 100% by AXA’s new Special Purpose Syndicate (SPS) at Lloyd’s.
Coface
Grant Williams has started work with Coface’s single situation team in the UK.
Endurance
Susie James has joined Endurance from HCC.
Endurance is now writing business on both the Lloyd’s Platform (Endurance at Lloyd’s) and UK Company Paper (Endurance Worldwide Insurance Limited) which is rated S&P A Stable.
Fidelis
Jennifer Wilson has joined Fidelis from XL Catlin.
Liberty
Liberty has appointed Edith Quintrell as its US based Underwriting Development Director - to develop business with public agencies such as multilaterals, export credit agencies and development finance institutions. She was formerly Director of Operations of the World Bank’s political risk insurance arm, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA).
Chris Sawyer joins the Global Financial Risks team in the role of Country and Credit Risk Manager.
MS Amlin
Nick Oxley has joined MS Amlin from Hiscox.
Nexus
Ed Cornish has joined Nexus from Beazley.
Sompo Canopius
Sompo Canopius has announced that Bernie de Haldevang is joining the group as Global Head of Specialty.
Talbot
Jared Kotler has replaced Tom Schild as Talbot’s NY underwriter.
XL Catlin
XL Catlin has appointed Dan Riordan as President, Global Political Risk & Trade Credit (PRTC). Mr. Riordan held senior positions at Zurich between 1997 and 2015, most recently serving as CEO of Global Corporate in North America and previously as President of Specialty Products. He has had a long association with the Berne Union, holding the position of President between 2013 and 2015. He joined XL Catlin on May 2nd, based in the US.
Andrew Underwood, formerly of Hiscox has been appointed UK and Ireland Product Lead for PR and TCI.
Significant CPRI market changes are summarised below:
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 5
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 6
Insurer:
‘Company Markets’
Project Risks (CEN)
Trade Risks
Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Non Trade
(Unsecured)
Rating(s)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
AIG 150 15 150 15 100 5 75 10 A+ [S&P]
Aspen 100 15 100 15 100 8 100 8 A [S&P]
Atradius 107 7 107 7 107 7 0 0 A [A.M. Best]
Axis 50 10 50 10 35 10 50 10 A+ [S&P]
Chubb 150 15 100 15 30 5 0 0 AA [S&P]
Coface 110 10 110 8 110 8 0 0 AA- [Fitch]
Ducroire 50 15 50 15 50 15 0 0 AA [S&P]
Endurance 40 7 40 7 40 7 40 7 A [S&P]
Euler-Hermes 125 8 125 8 125 8 50 5 AA- [S&P]
FCIA 25 7 80 7 80 7 0 0 A+ [S&P]
Fidelis 125 15 125 15 115 15 115 15 A-(AM Best)
Garant 27 7 27 7 27 7 10 5 A- [Fitch] and AM Best
Ironshore 40 7 40 7 40 7 40 7 A (A.M. Best)
Lancashire Insurance
Ltd.
200 10 75 10 0 0 75 10 A-[S&P]
AWAC (LAU)
25 5 20 5 20 5 0 0 A [A.M. Best]
Liberty Mutual
Insurance Europe Ltd
100 15 100 15 100 7 100 7 A [S&P]
Markel International
Insurance Company
30 7 50 7 150 7 10 5 A [S&P/Fitch]
Sovereign 80 15 80 15 0 0 80 15 AA [S&P/Fitch]
Starr International (Europe) Ltd.
50 10 50 10 0 0 0 0 A [A.M. Best]
Swiss Re Corporate Solution
75 10 75 10 200 5 0 0 AA-[S&P]
Tokio Marine HCC*
50 7 50 7 50 5 50 7 AA- [S&P/Fitch]
XLCatlin 200 15 200 15 150 10 150 7 A+ [S&P/Fitch]
Zurich 150 15 150 15 75 5 0 0 AA- [S&P/Fitch]
Total: 'Company
Markets' Jul 2016
2,059 4% 1,954 3% 1,704 10% 835 n/a
Total: Jan 2016
1,974 1,891.5 1,549
COMMERCIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
*Can offer 7 years non-trade for state owned obligors and 5 years for non-state owned.
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 7
COMMERCIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
Insurer:
‘Lloyd’s Markets’ [All Lloyd’s Markets rated A+ by S&P]
Project Risks (CEN)
Trade Risks Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Non Trade
(FG)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Acappella 2014 Lloyd’s Syn 2014
15 7 15 7 7.5 5 0 0
Antares Lloyd’s Syn 1274
40 10 40 10 20 7 15 7
ANV Lloyd’s Syn 1861
20 7 20 7 3 5 0 0
ANV 5820 (Jubilee) Lloyd’s Syn 5820
20 7 20 7 20 7 0 0
Argo Lloyd’s Syn 1200
20 10 20 10 20 7 20 5
Ark Lloyd’s Syn 4020
20 7 20 7 0 0 0 0
Ascot Lloyd’s Syn 1414
25 7.5 25 7.5 5 3 0 0
Aspen Lloyd’s Syn 4711
60 15 60 15 60 8 60 8
AWAC (LAU) Lloyd’s Syn 2232
25 7 20 7 20 7 0 0
Beazley Lloyd’s Syn 623/2623
50 7 50 7 30 7 0 0
BRIT Lloyd’s Syn 2987
30 10 30 10 30 8 30 8
Channel Lloyd’s Syn 2015
52.5 15 52.5 15 35 7 30 5
Chaucer Lloyd’s Syn 1084
30 7 30 7 15 7 0 0
Chubb
Lloyd’s Syn 2488
150 15 100 15 30 5 0 0
CNA Hardy Lloyd’s Syn 382
25 7 25 7 15 5 0 0
Endurance Lloyd’s syn 5151
40 7 40 7 40 7 0 0
Hiscox Lloyd’s Syn 33
25 5 25 10 25 5 25 5
Liberty Syn Mgmt Lloyd’s Syn 4472
100 15 100 15 100 7 0 0
Markel International Lloyd’s Syn 3000
30 7 50 7 70 5 10 5
MAP Lloyd’s Syn 2791
20 3 20 3 0 0 0 0
MS Amlin Lloyd’s Syn 2001
30 5 30 5 10 3 0 0
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 8
Insurer:
‘Lloyd’s Markets’ [All Lloyd’s Markets rated A+ by S&P]
Project Risks (CEN)
Trade Risks Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Non Trade*
(FG)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk
(MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
COMMERCIAL MARKET OVERVIEW continued
Nexus CIFS Lloyd’s Syn 4472/2007/1955/1206
0 0 20 5 20 5 0 0
Neon Lloyd’s Syn 2468
40 10 40 10 40 7 0 0
Novae Lloyd’s Syn 2007
50 10 50 10 30 10 0 0
Pembroke Lloyd’s Syn 4000
15 10 15 10 15 7 0 0
QBE Lloyd’s Syn 1036
20 5 20 5 0 0 0 0
Sompo Canopius Lloyd’s Syn 4444
25 7 25 7 12.5 7 12.5** 7
Starr Lloyd’s Syn 1919
40 10 50 10 0 0 0 0
StarStone Lloyd’s Syn 1301
5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
*Tokio Marine HCC Lloyd’s Syn 4141
50 7 50 7 50 5 0 0
Tokio Marine Kiln Lloyd’s Syn 510
60 5 40 5 40 5 0 0
Talbot Lloyd’s Syn 1183
40 7 40 7 20 7 0 0
WR Berkley Lloyd’s Syn 1967
7.5 5 7.5 5 0 0 0 0
XLCatlin Lloyd’s Syn 2003
200 15 200 15 150 10 150 7
Total: ‘Lloyd’s Markets Jul 2016’ 1,380 7% 1,350 6% 933 7% 352.5 n/a
Total: Jan 2016 1,285 1,277.5 872.5 n/a
*Certain insurers have requested that their capabilities for Non Trade be withheld as their appetite is very limited.**Total max per risk for FG between CR and CF – CR is USD12.5m and CF is USD25m
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 9
Available Market Capacity - July 2016(Total possible maximum MUSD per risk)
Project Risks (CEN) Trade Risks Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Financial Guarantee (FG)**
Company 2,059 1,954 1,704 835
Lloyd’s 1,380 1,350 933 352.5
Total: Jul 16* 2,744 3% 2,634 1% 2,117 6% 967.5 n/a
Total: Jan 2016* 2,659 2,609 2,001.5 n/a
Notes:*Totals do not ‘double count’ the Company and Lloyd’s lines of Aspen, AWAC, Chubb, Endurance, Liberty, Markel, Starr, Tokio Marine
HCC and XL Catlin that can be written via either their Company or Lloyd’s syndicate**For non trade business often a minimum obligor rating of investment grade or equivalent is required.
AVAILABLE MARKET CAPACITY – JULY 2016
(Total possible maximum USD million per risk)
2,059
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
CA
PAC
ITY
Project Risks (CEN)
Trade Risks Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Financial Guarantee (FG)**
CompanyLloyd’s
1,380
1,954
1,350
1,704
835933
352.5
AVAILABLE MARKET CAPACITY – JULY 2016
RISK TYPE
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 10
TOTAL CAPACITY AVAILABLE BY TENOR – JULY 2016
(Total possible maximum MUSD per risk)
Max Tenor (years)
Project Risks (CEN)
Trade Risks Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Non Trade (FG)
15 1,157.5 1,007.5 - 8010 1,837.5 1,577.5 220 3957 2,576.5 2,496.5 1,376.5 917.55 2,719 2,614 1,942 1,052.53 2,744 2,634 1,957 1,052.5
(Total possible maximum million USD per risk)
3 5 7 10 15
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
CA
PAC
ITY
TENOR AVAILABLE (YEARS)
Project Risks (CEN)Trade Risks Political (CF)Trade Risks Commercial (CR)Non Trade (FG)
2,744 2,7192,577
1,837
1,158
2,634
1,957
1,035
2,614
1,942
1,053
2,497
1,377
918
1,578
395
1008
80 220
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 11
(Tot
al p
ossib
le m
axim
um m
illio
n U
SD p
er ri
sk)
Janu
ary
2001
to Ju
ly 2
016
AVAILABLE MARKET CAPACITY COMPARISON
Proje
ct Ri
sks (
CEN
)Se
p- 01Jan
-02
Jan-
03Jan
-04
Jan-
05Jan
-06
Jan-
07Ju
l- 07Jan
-08
Jul- 08
Jan-
09Ju
l- 09Jan
-10
Jul- 10
Jan-
11Ju
l- 11Jan
-12
Jul- 12
Jan-
13Ju
l- 13Jan
-14
Jul- 14
Jan-
15Ju
l- 15Jan
-16
Jul- 16
Com
pany
580
564
495
495
470
490
515
545
660
855
840
870
920
795
865
985
1,01
5 1,
233
1,28
5 1,
324
1,49
3 1,
608
1,61
8 1,
696
1,97
4 2,
059
Lloy
d's 57
4 27
4 27
8 28
0 31
8 33
5 36
8 38
8 42
3 45
3 47
8 56
0 59
3 59
3 63
3 64
3 62
2 74
3 76
2 77
8 91
3 93
8 1,
035
1,07
0 1,
285
1,38
0
Total
1,15
4 83
7 77
3 77
5 78
8 82
5 88
3 93
3 1,
083
1,22
8 1,
238
1,35
0 1,
348
1,22
3 1,
293
1,33
3 1,
382
1,64
6 1,
688
1,74
2 2,
016
2,21
6 2,
123
2,30
1 2,
659
2,74
4
Trad
e Risk
s Poli
tical
(CF)
Sep- 01
Jan-
02Jan
-03
Jan-
04Jan
-05
Jan-
06Jan
-07
Jul- 07
Jan-
08Ju
l- 08Jan
-09
Jul- 09
Jan-
10Ju
l- 10Jan
-11
Jul- 11
Jan-
12Ju
l- 12Jan
-13
Jul- 13
Jan-
14Ju
l- 14Jan
-15
Jul- 15
Jan-
16Ju
l- 16
Com
pany
268
331
318
318
310
405
440
480
530
735
720
750
800
745
865
948
1,085
1,195
1,247
1,291
1,360
1,515
1,615
1,631
1,904
1,89
2
Lloy
d's38
918
820
319
523
925
629
733
234
737
738
145
650
251
056
057
054
567
569
570
384
595
21,0
351,0
601,3
50 1,
350
Total
657
519
520
513
549
661
737
812
877
1,052
1,041
1,146
1,157
1,110
1,240
1,268
1,420
1,565
1,607
1,659
1,885
2,022
2,155
2,196
2,609
2,63
4
Trad
e Risk
s Co
mm
ercial
(CR)
Sep- 01
Jan-
02Jan
-03
Jan-
04Jan
-05
Jan-
06Jan
-07
Jul- 07
Jan-
08Ju
l- 08Jan
-09
Jul- 09
Jan-
10Ju
l- 10Jan
-11
Jul- 11
Jan-
12Ju
l- 12Jan
-13
Jul- 13
Jan-
14Ju
l- 14Jan
-15
Jul- 15
Jan-
16Ju
l- 16
Com
pany
--
195
185
175
255
255
300
335
445
420
450
500
505
550
658
820
955
987
1,036
1,080
1,185
1,405
1,405
1,549
1,704
Lloy
d's-
-73
8779
103
167
190
208
238
251
307
346
341
353
658
338
453
455
457
544
634
703
723
873
933
Total
--
268
242
254
358
422
490
543
653
641
727
731
731
768
865
998
1,158
1,177
1,228
1,379
1,559
1758
1,794
2,002
2,002
Not
es:
Tota
ls do
not
‘dou
ble
coun
t’ th
e C
ompa
ny a
nd L
loyd
’s lin
es o
f Asp
en, A
WAC
, Chu
bb, E
ndur
ance
, Lib
erty
, Mar
kel,
Star
r, To
kio
Mar
ine
HC
C a
nd X
L C
atlin
that
can
be
writ
ten
via
eith
er th
eir C
ompa
ny o
r Llo
yd’s
synd
icat
e
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 12
Country Risk is a composite index used to gauge and compare the overall stability of a country. The index assesses the implications associated with potential changes to the country’s political, economic and business environment. It takes into consideration factors that could affect both long term as well as the short term prospects. The global average sits at 54.6.
EMERGING MARKETS COUNTRY RISK RATINGS
The following pages monitor changes in Country Risk Ratings, compiled by BMI Research, of various Emerging Markets. We compare Country Risk Ratings as at 01 Jan 2016 with those at the time of publication of this Market Report. These countries have been selected from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook for Emerging and Developing Economies.
Risk Rating Risk Description
80-100 Negligible
70-79 Very Low
60-69 Low
50-59 Moderate
40-49 High
<40 Very High
Sub-Sahara Africa
Country Risk IndexGlobal Rank at
01 July 2016 at 01 Jan 2016 at 01 July 2016 Net Change in Risk
Burkina Faso 39.4 40.4 172Côte d'Ivoire 49.4 48.9 132
Democratic Republic of Congo 31.4 32.6 190
Ghana 53.5 55.4 90Kenya 45.6 47.0 148Liberia 37.1 40.0 173Nigeria 48.0 48.0 - 139
Sierra Leone 38.1 41.3 169South Africa 58.3 57.2 81
Tanzania 48.1 51.3 111
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 13
Asia Pacific
Country Risk IndexGlobal Rank at
01 July 2016 at 01 Jan 2016 at 01 July 2016 Net Change in Risk
Cambodia 48.7 50.3 118China 67.7 67.7 - 41India 63.6 62.4 58
Indonesia 62.0 63.0 54Laos 46.6 47.5 143
Pakistan 48.7 48.6 134Papua New Guinea 42.2 42.9 164
Philippines 64.5 63.0 54Thailand 64.0 63.6 50Vietnam 63.7 63.2 52
Europe and CIS
Country Risk IndexGlobal Rank at
01 July 2016 at 01 Jan 2016 at 01 July 2016 Net Change in Risk
Belarus 47.9 47.3 145Czech Republic 72.5 72.9 27
Greece 56.4 55.6 88Kazakhstan 58.8 58.1 78Kyrgyzstan 40.7 40.6 171
Poland 70.8 70.2 31Romania 62.1 62.5 57
Russia 59.1 58.8 75Slovakia 69.4 69.9 34Ukraine 43.6 41.9 167
EMERGING MARKETS COUNTRY RISK RATINGS
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 14
EMERGING MARKETS COUNTRY RISK RATINGS
Latin America and Caribbean
Country Risk IndexGlobal Rank at
01 July 2016 at 01 Jan 2016 at 01 July 2016 Net Change in Risk
Argentina 51.9 51.8 106Bolivia 43.6 48.3 137Brazil 57.2 55.2 93
Colombia 59.0 58.8 75Dominican Republic 54.1 54.0 97
Ecuador 51.4 47.9 140Guatemala 47.2 47.2 - 146Nicaragua 46.1 46.3 149
Peru 61.0 60.5 70Venezuela 37.8 35.6 185
Middle East and North Africa
Country Risk IndexGlobal Rank at
01 July 2016 at 01 Jan 2016 at 01 July 2016 Net Change in Risk
Algeria 52.2 51.6 109Bahrain 62.0 60.3 71Egypt 52.5 49.9 121
Kuwait 64.6 61.7 64Lebanon 50.3 50.5 117
Libya 31.3 29.7 194Saudi Arabia 63.8 62.7 56
Tunisia 52.0 51.4 110United Arab Emirates 69.8 69.5 37
Yemen 25.0 25.1 199
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 15
CONTACTS
LondonMark GubbinsManaging DirectorT +44 (0)20 3425 3194E mark_gubbins@ajg.com
Matthew SolleyDeputy Managing DirectorT +44 (0)20 7204 6175E matthew_solley@ajg.com
Credit, Political and Project RisksDavid MauleExecutive DirectorT +44 (0)20 7204 6157E david_maule@ajg.com
David EvansExecutive DirectorT +44 (0)20 7204 6156E david_evans@ajg.com
Rupert MorganExecutive DirectorT +44 (0)20 3425 3199E rupert_morgan@ajg.com
Crisis ManagementPaul BassettManaging DirectorT +44 (0)20 3425 3417E paul_bassett@ajg.com
Justin PriestleyDirectorT +44 (0)20 3425 3427E Justin_Priestley@ajg.com
Steve DalchowDirectorT +44 (0)20 7560 3020E steve_dalchow@ajg.com
Pamela FoxDivisional DirectorT +44 (0)20 3425 3192E pamela_fox@ajg.com
SingaporeSarah GulstonDivisional Director T +65 6422 7439E sarah_gulston@ajg.com
Joie TayDivisional Director T +65 6422 7442E joie_tay@ajg.com
Dawn SeowSenior Account ManagerT +65 6438 1771E dawn_seow@ajg.com
AustraliaMichael WoodwardDivisional Manager, SydneyT +61 2 9242 2003E michael_woodward@ajg.com
Racheal TumeltyGeneral Manager, PerthT +61 8 9363 7742E racheal.tumelty@ajg.com.au
Gary McNallyAppointed RepresentativeT +61 2 9242 2087E gary_mcnally@ajg.com
New YorkDon Harkey Senior Vice President North American Practice Leader T +1 212 994 7027 E don_harkey@ajg.com
Gabe ManskyArea Executive Vice PresidentNorth American Trade Credit and Political Risks T +1 212 994 7068E gabe_mansky@ajg.com
BRIM - Stockholm / DubaiFredrik EnderleinStockholmT +46 8 441 89 88E fe@brim.se
Karl LundellDubai (rep office)T +971 435 20140E kl@brim.se
NOTES
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2016 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 18
Arthur J. Gallagher
Walbrook OfficeThe Walbrook Building25 WalbrookLondonEC4N 8AW
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7204 6000Fax: +44 (0) 20 7204 6001
www.ajginternational.com
The information contained in this CPRI Report and Market Update has been compiled by Arthur J. Gallagher (UK) Limited from information provided by each insurer. The figures expressed reflect the theoretical maximum possible lines available which are dependent upon many underwriting factors including the nature of the risk, the country of risk and available country capacity at the time which may reduce the amount of capacity actually available and is subject to change without notice.
CPRI Report and Market Update does not purport to be comprehensive or to give legal advice. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Arthur J. Gallagher (UK) Limited cannot be held liable for any errors, omissions or inaccuracies contained within the document. Readers should not act upon (or refrain from acting upon) information in this document without first taking further specialist or professional advice.
Arthur J. Gallagher (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Office: The Walbrook Building, 25 Walbrook, London EC4N 8AW. Registered in England and Wales. Company Number: 1193013. www.ajginternational.com FP484-2016
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