reid basher un international strategy for disaster reduction (unisdr) unisdr
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1Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Reid BasherUN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)www.unisdr.org
Disaster risk reduction in adaptation strategies at and after Copenhagen
Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”,
Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
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2Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Overview of the disasters problem
www.unisdr.org
Disasters affect millions, cause big losses, hinder the achievement of MDGs. Key issue is human vulnerability. Root causes of risk are social and economic. Main problem is awareness and political commitment - risk is not factored in. Knowledge, tools and policy frameworks are readily available. Climate change makes a bad situation worse, adds to the urgency.
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3Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Dealing with disaster vulnerability
Tools, policies, links with climate change
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4Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Disaster reduction - practical actions to reduce vulnerability
Map and avoid high-risk zones. Build hazard-resistant structures and houses. Protect and develop hazard buffers (forests, reefs, etc). Develop culture of prevention and resilience. Improve early warning and response systems. Build institutions, and development policies and plans, necessary to sustain these goals.
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5Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
The disaster reduction triage
A. Accumulated risk: invest selectively in critical facilities - hospitals, schools, infrastructure lifelines.
A. New developments: ensure that land uses, environmental management, building designs, reduce and not increase risk.
A. Post-event recovery: “build back better”, advocate and organise to reduce future risks.
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6Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Key policy elements to reduce disaster risk
www.unisdr.org
Build disaster risk reduction into the post-2012 climate change agreement (after Kyoto Protocol ends). Forge linkages between national agendas for disaster risk reduction and for climate change. Put risk reduction methods and tools into action as an essential component of adaptation plans.
Make risk a central issue in development policy and mainstream risk reduction into sectoral programmes. Substantially increase investment in risk reduction. Put strong emphasis on monitoring risk status and progress on risk reduction.
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7Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters
Agreed by 168 governments at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, 18 – 22 January, 2005
Seeks to achieve a “substantial reduction in losses”
Disaster reduction as part of sustainable development. Strengthen institutions to build resilience. Build risk reduction into emergency management and recovery.
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8Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Main elements of the Hyogo FrameworkPriorities for action
1) Disaster risk reduction as a priority with strong institutional basis for action.
2) Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.3) Knowledge, innovation, education for culture of safety and resilience.4) Reduce the underlying risk factors.5) Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response.
Primary role of the State; supporting roles for international and regional organisations, ISDR secretariat.
Monitoring and reporting, and indicators of progress in risk reduction.
Resources needs.
Implementation and follow-up
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9Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
www.unisdr.org
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10Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Disaster characteristics
Patterns, trends, concepts
www.unisdr.org
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11Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Basic patterns - 1995-2004
www.unisdr.org
2,500 million people affected 890,000 dead US$ 570 billion losses Most disasters are weather- or climate-related
Poor people and poor countries most affected
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12Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Global Assessment Report shows risks are increasing
Growing recognition of disaster risks and action by public, NGOs, communities, cities, businesses.
Some Governments making good progress, actively building their institutions.
Focus is still on preparedness, weak on underlying causes in land use, environment, social policy.
Growing linkages with climate change: disaster risk reduction is a key part of the UNFCCC Bali Action Plan.
Developing countries still highly at risk, and lacking in capacities.
Progress in reducing and managing risks
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13Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Death rates per million by region and hazard type(1994-2006)
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14Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
www.unisdr.org
Number of People Killed by Income Class/Disaster Type, 1975-2000, World Summary
27,010(1.36%)
87,414(4.41%)
520,418(26.25%)
1,347,504(67.98%)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
High Income
Upper MiddleIncome
Lower MiddleIncome
Low Income
Income Class
Number of Killed ('000s)
Drought Earthquake Epidemic Flood Slide Volcano Wind storm Others
Disasters afflict poor people and countries most, and are a development issue
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15Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
Selected disasters with large economic impact (1975-2006)
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16Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Great natural disasters 1950-2006:overall losses and insured losses
NatCatSERVICE, Munich Re
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17Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED, International Disaster Database, Université catholique de Louvain Brussels - Belgium
Upward trend in hydro-meteorological hazard events, (1991-2006)
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18Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
But beware of the data!
1900 2005
1931: 3,700,000
1959: 2,003,396
1960-2000: <35,000 p.a.
2006-7: <2,000 p.a.
Upward trend - but also in information capture rate
But big decline in big fatality events - e.g.
flood deaths in China
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19Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Conceptual basis (1) Pre-science view
Natural hazard
DISASTER
Unpredictable, immense power, little
one can do to prepare, fatalism, Act of God?
punishment
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20Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Conceptual basis (2) - Engineering view
Natural hazard
Vulnerability
DISASTER
+
Avoid risky situations, build well, be prepared,
have early warnings
Understand the physics, do risk assessments, monitor the hazards
Lowered risk and impacts
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21Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Conceptual basis (3) - Social perspective
Lack of information
Unsafe buildings
Natural hazard
Vulnerability
DISASTER
+
Disenfranchisement
Poverty
Environmental degradation
Low access to public services
Lack of assets or safety nets
Unplanned settlements
Lack of political commitment
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22Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Longstanding humanitarian
concerns
Growing scientific advancements
Integrated, sustainability approaches
Reduction of vulnerability and disaster risk
Resilient communities - lives saved, assets protected, economies growing
Another work in progress: the shift from disaster relief to sustainable development
Relief and
recovery
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23Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Tsunami mortality in women and men, by age,December 2004, Tamil Nadu, India
MaleFemale
Children, elderly and women are the most vulnerable
Courtesy Professor Deborati Guha-Sapir, Université catholique de Louvain Brussels - Belgium
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24Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
The reasons for rising disaster risks ?
More people and poor people in risky and unsustainable situations Unsafe development: floodplain settlement, coastal exploitation, mega-city growth, unsafe houses, wetland destruction, river channelling, deforestation, soil erosion and fertility decline Exacerbated by poverty and disease, conflict and population displacement
Growing disasters are a sign of unsustainable development
…. Mostly increasing vulnerability
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25Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
4th IPCC Assessment: expect temperature increases, heatwaves, sea level rise, more intense rainfall and drought.
Vulnerable areas: Africa, mega-deltas of Asia, small island states, and the poor.
A more extreme climate will expose and punish the most vulnerable.
Mounting evidence - heatwaves, loss of glaciers and polar ice, record cyclone numbers.
Record number of humanitarian Flash Appeals (13) in 2007 and most were for climate events.
Climate change will increase disaster risks
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26Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Climate change and disaster risk are now coupled issues
Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, 2006
“Climate change is happening and measures to help people adapt to it are essential.”
“The costs of extreme weather alone could reach 0.5 - 1% of world GDP per annum by the middle of the century, and will keep rising if the world continues to warm.”
Growth in frequency of intense hurricanes Peter Webster et al.
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27Media21 Global Journalism Network, “Climate Change IV: Anticipating climate risks”, Geneva 31 August 2009, (at WCC-3)
Research to reduce disaster risks and to adapt to climate change
www.unisdr.org
Understanding the human experience of risk, and motivation and politics to deal with it. Understanding past human adaptation to, and management of, natural risk. Economics of systems involving risk, uncertainty, and long-term consequences. Dynamics of complex systems (like cities). How existing knowledge and tools are made use of in policy-making and decision-making. Necessity for interdisciplinary collaboration and to build integrated programmes and support the IRDR.
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