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Quantifying Development Needs:

An Energy-centered Approach to

Climate Justice

Narasimha D. Rao

Our Common Future

Paris, July 2015

We agree that deep cuts in global emissions are required…below 2 degrees C…

take action…on the basis of equity…bearing in mind that social and economic development

and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities…

Copenhagen Accord

Equitable access to sustainable development

Cancun Agreement

Right of everyone to an adequate standard of living for himself and his family,

including adequate food, clothing and housing, and to the continuous

improvement of living conditions”

Article 11.1, International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights.

‘Development’ in Climate Negotiations

Narasimha D. Rao

Past ‘Development Thresholds’

Narasimha D. Rao

“Greenhouse Development Rights – $7,500

Baer, Kartha, Athanasiou 2007

“BASIC Proposal (South Africa) – HDI

Emissions “Floor” – 1 ton CO2eq

Chakravarty et al 2009

Energy

PovertyClimate

ForcingPoverty

Narasimha D. Rao

2°C World Allows Limited Energy Growth

CO2

from Energy

(GTons)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Global Energy Assessment, IIASA

Annex I Countries’

Emissions Pathways

(2˚C)

Narasimha D. Rao

Steckel et al., 2013

Baseline450ppm

Final Energy

Do we have sufficient energy for basic

human development in a 2°C World?

Narasimha D. Rao

Historical Trends in Human Development

Lamb & Rao, Glob. Env. Ch,Narasimha D. Rao

Estimate (Top-Down) Energy for HD

1990

20102050

Narasimha D. Rao

Lamb & Rao, Glob. Env. Ch,

South Asia

Narasimha D. Rao

Estimate (Top-Down) Energy for HD

Lamb & Rao, Glob. Env. Ch,

(Final) Energy Consumption 2010-2050

Narasimha D. Rao

Lamb & Rao, Glob. Env. Ch,

Cumulative Carbon Budget 2010-2050

Narasimha D. Rao

4.1 tCO2eq

6.7 tCO2eq

4.2 tCO2eq

Lamb & Rao, Glob. Env. Ch,

Population GHG Emissions

Basic Development Share of Global 2°C Budget

2010-2050

Narasimha D. Rao

• Basis for “graduation” from intensity targets to

absolute targets

• Exemption threshold, beyond which allocation

rules apply

Practical Applications

Narasimha D. Rao

THANK YOU

nrao@iiasa.ac.at