quantitative methods in donor management

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Quantitative methods in Donor Management

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Sanquin Blood Supply Foundation• The only organisation in the NL authorised to supply blood (products)• Not-for-profit organisation• Employing approximately 3,000 people working in 5 divisions:

• Blood Bank

• Plasma Products

• Diagnostic Services

• Research – Sanquin staff working with / partly employed at academic centers

• Reagents

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Sanquin Blood Bank - numbers• ± 380,000 Donors

• 2.3% of the total Dutch population (16.8 million) • Approximately 800,000 donations per year

• Mostly whole blood (60%, 2wk walk-in)

• Plasmapheresis (by appointment)• Donation interval

• Minimum 8 weeks (3/yr women, 5/yr men)

• Average 11-12 weeks

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Research

How about simple calculus?

1 + 1 = 1

1 + 1 = 2

1 + 1 = 3

How about simple calculus?

0.6 + 0.7 = 1.3

0.9 + 1.2 = 2.1

1.3 + 1.4 = 2.7

1

2

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

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Research Topics• Risk Based Selection

• Donor Risk vs. Patient Risk

• Cost-Effectiveness• Adverse Events and Reactions in Donors

• Vasovagal Reactions

• Iron Status and Metabolism

• Genetic Variation• Donor Base Management

• Recruitment and Retention

• Involvement of Minorities

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Platelet Inventory ManagementTheory meets Practice

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TTO =

7 days 6 days 5 days 4 days 3 days 2 days 1 day

NB: on Sundays and Mondays no production!

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Vn (d, x) = Minimal expected Costs C over the planning period of n days, starting at day d with inventory x;given a demand b (with chance p) and production k

Stochastic Dynamic Programming

n+1 n 0

(d, x) , k

Vn1(d,x) Cs(d,x)CO(d,x)mink

pd (b)Vnb (d,y(x,b,k))

as of tomorrow

�(Minimal Costs after today) = (Today’s Production Costs) +

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Risk Based Selection

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Donor deferral• Every new donor: screening visit• Donor screening at every donation• About 10% of all visits lead to deferral, new donors >20%

o For donor healtho For recipient health

• Very disappointing for donor• Very expensive for blood bank

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Donor Deferral Workshop (Amsterdam, 2012):Donations Not Selected / Deferred

Donors Not Selected / Deferred

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%

Canad

aCroa

tia

Denmark

Zealan

d

Denmark

Odens

eGerm

any

German

y BWH

Estonia

Finlan

dFranc

eIre

land

Latvi

aNeth

erlan

ds

Northe

rn Ire

land

Portug

alSco

tland

Englan

d

ABC Cen

tre, U

SA

Sweden

-Ska

ne

Sweden

-Upps

alaAus

tria

Belgium Flan

ders

Belgium W

allon

ia

Blood Operators

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Screening

Condition

Yes No

Test

PosYes,Right

Oops, AlsoWrong

NegOops,Wrong

Yes, RightAgain!

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Number of deferrals to prevent one case of a Transfusion Transmitted Disease*

Disease # Deferrals

Hepatitis B 39,760

Hepatitis C 564,600

HIV 352,875

Syfilis 42,772

* De Kort et al., 2014

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Donor Base Management

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Databases used for research• Donor Database (eProgesa, n ±380,000, ±900,000

donations per year): monthly extractions of:o Donors (sex, age, blood group, stopping reasons, height,

weight, donation count)

o Donations (type, date, amount donated)

o Donor screening data (hemoglobin, blood pressure, reasons for deferral)

o Etc...

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Databases used for researchSeparate studies

o Donor InSight Study (n>30,000)

o Kinetics of IroN in Donors

o CARDON

o Donor Stress – homeostasis – blood products

o Donor Lapse questionnaires

o Consultancy research (internal evaluations of Mobile Blood Drive, donor satisfaction, waiting times, etc.)

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Donor InSight (DIS)• 50,000 donors randomly selected, 31,338 (63%)

participated• Questionnaires completed from April 2007-April 2009

• Socio-Economical Status• Ethnicity• Nutrition• Medical History (health, disease)• Physical activity• Donor motivation• Donation process• Adverse reactions

• Linkage with blood bank data• Linkage with medical and disease registries• Consent to recontact

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Donor InSight 2In the past years, again 50,000 donors were asked to complete questionnaires:

• All surviving respondents DIS 1 (n=29,532)

• New random samples of donors (n=20,468)

Data collection has just been completed...

34,823 (69.7%) participated, data are being cleaned

Donor Health

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Deferral Rates

Low Hb Deferrals as % of Total Deferrals

0.020.040.060.080.0

Can

ada

Cro

atia

Ger

man

yG

erm

any

BW

HE

ston

ia

Finl

and

Fran

ceB

ritta

ny

Eire

Latv

iaN

ethe

r -la

nds

N.Ir

elan

d

Por

tuga

l

Sco

tland

Eng

land

AB

C -

US

A

Aus

tria

Blood Operators

%

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Prediction of Hb deferral• Prediction models were developed for men

and women separately • Predictors:

• Age

• Season

• Hb previous visit

• ∆Hb at 2 last visits

• (Hb)-deferral at last visit

• Time since last visit

• Number of donations in the last 2 years

• ZPP (Zinc ProtoPorphyrin)

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Impact study• Evaluate effectiveness of prediction models by selective

invitation of donors• Randomized controlled trial

All Dutch Donors, four regions/groups:Group 1 Invited as usual. i.e. without using prediction modelGroups 2-4 Interventions for donors in high risk groups:

Group 2 Prolongation of donation intervalGroup 3 Dietary adviceGroup 4 Both prolongation of donation interval and dietary advice

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Patterns of hemoglobin levels• Hemoglobin is measured at every visit• Hypothesis: different people cope differently with

repeated donations:

• Faster hemoglobin recovery > genetic basis?

=donation

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Hemoglobin recovery

Days after donation

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Kinetics of IroN after Donation (KIND)

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Depleting iron stores

Iron stores

Hemoglobin

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Kinetics of IroN after Donation, KIND

Hours Days

0

8

24 Day 2

72 Day 4

168 Day 8

336 Day 15

672 Day 29

1344 Day 57

2016 Day 85

4320 Day 180

Preliminary results

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CARdiovascular risk and DONation (CARDON)

• Active WB donors (n=633) & new WB donors (n=112) with 2yr follow-up

• Questionnaire, metabolic factors• Sex-specific donation tertiles of:

o Lifetime # donationso # donations last 2 years o # donations last 4 yearso Donation frequency

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Does stress influence blood product quality?

• Measuring stress during donationsoQuestions

oSaliva cortisol

oContinuous blood pressure, heart rate (variability)

• Participants (189 per group):oNew donors

oRegular never deferred donors

oRecently deferred donors

• Outcomes:oEffects on platelet and coagulation activity in the

donor and the blood products

Recruitment and Retention of Donors

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Missing Minorities• Ethnic minorities are underrepresented in the donor

base• Different ethnic groups:

odifferent diseases

odifferent blood types

• The more diverse the donor population, the more patients can be helped

• General recruitment methods: not successful in reaching minority populations

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Follow-up on MIMI

Blood group phenotyping

Dutch minority groups

POPULATION

Programme for recruitment and

Retention

DONOR BASE

Estimations of future blood

needs for minority groups

PATIENTS

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Return behaviour• ± 2,000 donors completed questionnaire

• Theory of Planned Behaviour

• Self-identity: “blood donation is part of who I am”

• Organizational factorso Feeling pressure to donate

o Perceived satisfaction with the blood bank

• Whole blood donorso2-10 donations

o>10 donations

Yes I can!

Positive feeling about giving blood

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Retention resultsMost strongly associated with donor lapse:

• Vasovagal reactions

• Anxiety

• Fatigue, particularly in men

• Subjective distress

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Donation Process ManagementWaiting Times; Operational Staffing

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Product Form (also Markov Model)

This System’s Steady State Chances:

R I C

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ConclusionVirtually all Research in Donor Management is QuantitativeHowever:• In Epidemiological Trend Analyses and Prediction

Statistical Modelling is an important Tool• Operations Research applies Different Mathematical

Techniques, e.g. Stochastic Dynamic Programming• Cooperation with other Research Groups is

mandatory

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P { ( )}/S Vn∑ ∏∆

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