public opinion gallup poll: “how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in your...

Public Opinion

Gallup Poll:

“How satisfied are you with the way democracy works in your country.”

70% Satisfied

30% Unsatisfied

What is Public Opinion?

1. The collective attitude of the citizens on a given issue or question.

2. Difficult to measure3. Political Elites hold more weight

More knowledgeable, consistent Influence policy by framing issues

Three Aspects of Public Opinion1. It can legitimize political authority

Polls allow politicians to claim their policies are correct

2. It can make politicians more responsive to the public Clinton used the word “education” 43 times

in the 1996 debate

3. It can help candidates win campaigns. Pollsters conduct polls that make them look

more popular than they are Push polling

How Polling Works• Reasonable questions • Worded fairly• Random Samplings—stratification• Sampling Errors• Exit Polling• Accurate since 1952

“The polls indicate we

could end up with two

candidates in November neither of

whom can beat the other.”

“When you quote a Presidential candidate, Gorman, you do not—I repeat—do NOT roll

your eyes.”

The Art of Public Polling

Market Testing1. FDR was the first to use systematic

polling2. JFK was the first to hire a pollster3. Today, politicians depend on polls

Public opinion can change quickly In Clinton’s 1st year in office he

conducted more polling and focus group studies than in all 4 years of the Bush Administration

4. 1994 Contract with America Frank Luntz

Five Qualities of Public Opinion1. Intensity/Saliency

An intense minority can win against a less intense majority

Problem: Polling can’t measure intensity

2. Stability/Fluidity3. Latency

Don’t know/haven’t made up mind

4. Distribution Opinion distributed over several positions Can determine if compromise is an option

5. Opinion-Policy Congruence

Political Socialization

1. The way in which people acquire their sense of political culture and ideology

2. Takes place slowly

3. Starts at a young age

Political Socialization

Factors affecting Socialization1. Family—children as young as 9 begin to be

influenced Direct Indirect 91 % of seniors knew the presidential preference of their

parents 71 % knew party identification Only 9% identified with the opposite party Red Diaper Babies—college radicals in the 1960s were often

sons and daughters of radicals

2. Schooling In school we learn cultural values, language, norms,

beliefs, and traditions These generally include Civility, Order, and Conformity Nazi Germany; Japan Higher education trends Increased education led to increased political activity Data on college students’ ideology is mixed

Favorable toward business, but not for small government???

3. The Mass Media Average adult spends 30 hours per week Children spend more time watching TV than in

school 1996 Poll—25% of Americans learn about the

candidates from Letterman or Leno 13% said they get most of their political news

from MTVWhat does this tell us about modern politics?

4. Social Class—working class favor social programs-- 1998 Midterm elections—incomes of $29,000 or less

supported Democrats;-- those with incomes of $75,000 and above favored GOP -- Class differences have declined sharply in the professions.-- America has much less class consciousness than Europe

5. Religion Jewish voters favor social programs & civil

rights, and are generally more liberal, favor Democrats; ’92 and ’96—they voted for Clinton around 80%

Religion influences opinion on social issues, not so much other issues

6. Gender—the Gender Gap Women favor: Social Welfare programs,

environmental protection, affirmative action, education

Oppose—defense spending, death penalty Gap is between 5-12%

The Party Identification of Men and Women: 1952-1996

7. Ethnicity Since the New Deal, black voters have supported

Democrats: 88% supported Democratic congressional candidates

Efficacy—Blacks distrust government more than whites Narrowing in recent years among the youth

8. Region—South vs. North South more conservative on issues such as abortion,

marijuana, death penalty, school prayer, and rights of the accused

Much more Republican

Cross-cutting cleavages

Generational Gaps on the Issues

Liberals and Conservatives

Economic policy: liberals favor jobs for all, subsidized medical care and education, increased taxation of the rich

Civil rights: liberals favor strong federal action to desegregate schools, hiring opportunities for minorities, and strict enforcement of civil rights laws

Public and political conduct: liberals are tolerant of protest demonstrations, favor legalization of marijuana, and emphasize protecting the rights of the accused

Similar to Socialism and Populism

Political Ideology

A person’s beliefs about what role the government should play in our lives and what policies it

should pursue

Liberalism Different from “classical liberalism” which

stemmed from the 17th and 18th centuries. 1930’s FDR’s New Deal changed the

definition of liberalism Today it means gov’t ought to be used

positively to bring about justice and equality of results

Emphasis on progress and equality 17% of population in 1994

Liberalism then and now…Shared Values of the

Founders=Classical Liberalism Liberty—religious economic… Equality (Egalitarianism) Individualism Popular Consent Rule of Law Limited Government

Thomas Jefferson: "government governs best when it governs least”

Conservatism Since the 1950s, emphasis has been on

smaller government and stronger state’s rights Reaction against FDR, big gov’t

Hostility to taxes; Emphasis on morality in social issues Emphasis on liberty 28% of population in 1994

Conservatism then and now…

Roots in 17th and 18th century Hamilton, Metternich, Bismarck Strong central government State sponsored religion

Purpose of government: Order and safety

Economy—regulated (mercantilism)

Liberals and Conservatives

Economic policy: liberals favor jobs for all, subsidized medical care and education, increased taxation of the rich

Civil rights: liberals favor strong federal action to desegregate schools, hiring opportunities for minorities, and strict enforcement of civil rights laws

Public and political conduct: liberals are tolerant of protest demonstrations, favor legalization of marijuana, and emphasize protecting the rights of the accused

Libertarianism Socially liberal, fiscally conservative Government should not regulate

personal conduct Repeal of drug, abortion, pornography,

and prostitution laws 21% of population in 1994 Laissez faire capitalism

Populism Liberal on economic issues, conservative

on social Gov’t should reduce economic inequality,

control business Gov’t should regulate personal conduct, be

tough on criminals

Elimination of CIA, FBI; reduce military 24% of population in 1994

Other options?

Socialism Public (collective) ownership of means of

production The transitional stage between capitalism and

communism Expanded role of government, nationalization of

industries, and higher taxes on rich Anarcho-syndicalism

Free association based on co-operative labor Abolition of wage system and private property

Ideological Self-Identification

How Liberals and Conservatives Differ

Liberals and Conservative

Pure liberals: liberal on both economic and personal conduct issues

Pure conservatives: conservative on both economic and personal conduct issues

Libertarians: conservative on economic issues, liberal on personal conduct issues

Populists: liberal on economic issues, conservative on personal conduct issues

Policy Preferences of Democratic and Republican Voters